The European Perspective
War’s €2.2 trn Shadow on Europe
Fresh CEPR modelling pegs the Ukraine war’s global bill at $2.4 trn (≈€2.2 trn), 2022-27. With EU defence outlays already up 13 % y/y (ECB), Brussels’ fiscal hawks fear another “security surcharge” could crowd out green-tech spending. I expect the data to stiffen German FDP resistance to a looser EU Stability Pact—watch next week’s EcoFin. (CEPR, ECB)
Brexit Regret Becomes Majority Culture
A new YouGov tracker shows 62 % of Britons now call Brexit a ‘mistake’, vs 34 % in 2020. London is quietly expanding “dynamic alignment” talks on chemicals and data; any Swiss-style deal would slash non-tariff friction that has clipped U.K.–EU goods trade by -14 % since 2019 (ONS). The shift emboldens pro-market voices in Labour and liberal Tories flirting with single-market lite. (YouGov, ONS, Politico)
Thai-Cambodia Flare-Up: Hidden EU Supply Risk
Artillery along the Thai-Cambodian border has interrupted Route 33, the corridor feeding hard-drive and auto-wire harness plants that ship €3.1 bn of inputs to Europe annually. Any prolonged closure could squeeze already thin inventories; Dutch electronics makers keep just 18 days of HDD stock. Trump-brokered cease-fire talks start Monday. (ZDF, ANSA, Eurostat)
Airdrops Over Gaza, Brussels Reassesses Aid
Israel’s overnight airdrop of 7 tons of staples spotlights EU paralysis: the Commission has disbursed only €80 m of the promised €150 m humanitarian tranche. Expect the Parliament’s development committee to push for conditionality clauses tying future aid to corridor guarantees—an opening for a rules-based, liberty-aligned policy reset. (ANSA, EU COM)
Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.
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