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Evening Analysis – The Gist

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Evening Analysis • Monday, August 11, 2025

In Focus

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The Global Overview

Trump Signals China Tech Thaw

In a significant policy pivot, President Trump has indicated a willingness for Nvidia to sell advanced chips to China, provided a fee is paid to the U.S. government (FT). Trump confirmed he negotiated “a little deal” with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, shifting from a strategy of total tech denial to one of transactional access. Our Take: This move departs from outright economic warfare, embracing a pragmatic, revenue-focused model. It suggests a future where strategic competition is managed through fees rather than absolute bans, a nod to market-based solutions over rigid protectionism, though it raises questions about the long-term strategic implications of allowing a rival access to critical technology.

Federal Power Asserts Itself in D.C.

President Trump has deployed the National Guard to Washington D.C. and assumed control of the city’s Metropolitan Police Department, citing goals of reducing crime and homelessness (Bloomberg). This centralization of power removes authority from the local D.C. government. From a libertarian standpoint, while addressing urban decay is a valid concern, overriding local autonomy with federal force represents a substantial expansion of executive power and a notable challenge to the principles of limited government and decentralized control.

Markets Digest Geopolitical Risk

Investor caution was palpable in Asian trading, as Singapore’s Straits Times Index, a key barometer for corporate health in Southeast Asia, edged down 0.2% to close at 4,232.78 (Strait Times). This unease is set against a backdrop of rising geopolitical friction, including destabilization efforts in Moldova, where a fugitive pro-Russian businessman has reportedly offered citizens $3,000 a month to join anti-government protests ahead of next month’s elections (Strait Times).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Germany’s Industrial Engine Stalls

New data reveals a worrying decline in Germany’s industrial sector, the traditional engine of European growth. Industrial production plummeted by 1.9% in June, a far steeper drop than the 0.5% forecast and the lowest point since May 2020 (Destatis). The news was compounded by a significant downward revision for May’s data, from a reported 1.2% gain to a 0.1% loss, attributed to corrections in the automotive sector. This Q2 production fell by 1.0%, pointing to industry subtracting from, rather than adding to, GDP. These figures undermine hopes for a robust recovery and suggest that persistent trade friction and high costs are taking a heavy toll. While some analysts point to the fading effects of “front-loading” orders to the US ahead of tariffs, the trend underscores a deeper malaise. With exports to the US already down 2.1% in June, the continent’s largest economy faces a significant drag.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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