Washington and Beijing prolonged their fragile tariff cease-fire for another 90 days, freezing U.S. duties at 30 % and China’s at 10 %—a reprieve from the 145 %/125 % surges that had been due at midnight. Equity markets immediately added nearly $1 trillion in capitalization; Japan’s Nikkei jumped 2.7 % and the Dow leapt 1,161 points. (reuters.com, ft.com, feeds.bbci.co.uk)

History suggests such truces rarely hold: of the five major U.S.–China tariff pauses since 2018, four collapsed within six months as structural grievances—subsidies, technology transfer, security—re-emerged. Yet the White House now links tariff relief to China’s willingness to curb imports of sanctioned Russian oil, signalling a shift from mercantilist math to geopolitical leverage.

If trade rules become bargaining chips for sanctions enforcement, the system that lifted a billion people from poverty risks fragmenting into blocs, raising costs far beyond today’s stock-market bounce. As economist Dani Rodrik warns, “Efficient globalisation must also be politically sustainable.” Let us see whether diplomacy catches up with that elementary truth.

— The Gist AI Editor

US-China Trade Tensions Simmer

President Trump has extended a trade truce with China for another 90 days, narrowly avoiding a snap-back to punitive tariff levels (Strait Times, Politico.eu). This executive order continues a strategy aimed at pressuring Beijing to narrow the U.S. trade deficit and crack down on fentanyl exports. The administration’s approach signals a preference for negotiation over immediate escalation, yet the core disputes—spanning market access to industrial policy—remain unresolved, underscoring the fragility of the current economic detente between the world’s two largest economies. This temporary peace keeps markets steady but leaves businesses in a continued state of uncertainty.

Beijing’s New ‘Air Silk Road’

China has quietly expanded its economic reach into Europe with a new “Air Silk Road,” establishing over 40 air freight routes from its Xinjiang province directly to the continent (Politico.eu). These routes facilitate the transport of thousands of tons of goods, integrating a region fraught with controversy directly into European supply chains. For European consumers and businesses, this means faster access to Chinese products, but it also raises profound ethical questions. The development highlights the tension between the economic benefits of open trade and the growing concerns over human rights, as Beijing is accused of subjecting the Uyghur population in Xinjiang to forced labor.

Climate’s Tangible Toll on Ecosystems

A stark new study reveals the growing impact of climate change on biodiversity, finding that rising heat extremes have driven a 25% to 38% decline in tropical bird populations over the last 70 years (Strait Times). The research, published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, isolates the effect of intensifying temperatures from deforestation, demonstrating a direct, measurable consequence of man-made global warming on sensitive ecosystems. This data provides concrete evidence of how environmental shifts can disrupt the natural world, with potential long-term consequences for biodiversity and ecological stability that transcend national borders.

See you for the evening edition—your essential briefing for a complex world.

While You Were Sleeping: 5 stories you might have missed, Aug 12, 2025
— Strait Times

Trump’s trade war with China in 2025
— Strait Times

Climate heat extremes driving tropical bird decline: Study
— Strait Times

China’s new ‘Air Silk Road’ brings thousands of tons of goods from Xinjiang to Europe
— Politico.Eu

Vietnam’s Richest Man Shifts Strategy After $14 Billion Bet on EVs
— Bloomberg

Trump extends US-China trade truce for another 90 days
— Politico.Eu

Trans-Pacific Trade War Averted… For Now

Washington and Beijing have pulled back from a significant escalation in their trade dispute, with President Trump signing an executive order to extend a tariff truce for another 90 days. The move narrowly avoids the imposition of crippling duties—a planned hike to 145% on many Chinese imports by the US and retaliatory 125% tariffs by China—that were set to activate today. While providing temporary relief for integrated global supply chains and European businesses reliant on trans-pacific trade, this eleventh-hour reprieve only postpones the confrontation. Forcing businesses to operate under a cloud of uncertainty until early November, it underscores a preference for managed trade over a stable, rules-based system, a dynamic that continues to chill long-term capital investment. (DW, ANSA)

Beijing’s New Axis in the Global South

China is actively cultivating an alternative to the Western-led international order, with President Xi Jinping proposing a new partnership with Brazil. In a direct call with President Lula da Silva, Xi pitched a model of “unity and self-sufficiency” as an example for the Global South. (ANSA) This is more than diplomatic rhetoric; it is a strategic effort to build a parallel economic and political bloc, potentially weakening the influence of market-based democracies and institutions like the G7. For Europe, the emergence of such state-guided alliances threatens to fragment global trade further and create rival regulatory spheres, complicating international cooperation and championing a vision of development rooted in state power, not individual enterprise. (ANSA)

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Stromausfälle im Irak wegen extremer Hitze
— Zdf

Trump, China extend tariffs pause for 90 more days
— Dw

« La reconnaissance d’un droit fondamental à l’eau doit se décliner en engagements opposables »
— Lemonde

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— Zdf

Medien: Torwart Donnarumma soll PSG verlassen
— Zdf

Xi a Lula, ‘Cina e Brasile modello di autosufficienza’
— Ansa