2025-09-13 • Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced ex-president Bolsonaro to 27 years for a failed coup. First former president

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years + 3 months for orchestrating a failed 2022 coup attempt—Brazil’s first former head of state jailed for attacking democratic order. Four of five justices found him guilty of plotting to abolish constitutional rule and leading an armed criminal group; the ruling also extends his electoral ban to 2060. (reuters.com)

The verdict lands in a $2 trn economy of 203 m people, just as foreign direct investment is rebounding 18 % Y/Y. Investors now confront an unprecedented fact: Latin America’s largest market has criminalized a populist leader whose policies once buoyed agribusiness and spooked ESG funds. Brazil thus signals that authoritarian flirtations carry material sovereign-risk costs. (apnews.com)

Historically, Brazil jailed presidents (Collor 1992, Lula 2018) on corruption; prosecuting a coup thrusts it into Weimar-to-postwar-Germany territory—where democracy survived by punishing would-be putschists early. Whether “Bolsonarismo 2.0” mutates or withers will test regional democracies already strained by Mexico’s militarisation and Argentina’s libertarian shock therapy. As philosopher Daniel Innerarity warns, “Democracies die when they forget that conflict must be processed, not pulverised.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Saturday, September 13, 2025

the Gist View

Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years + 3 months for orchestrating a failed 2022 coup attempt—Brazil’s first former head of state jailed for attacking democratic order. Four of five justices found him guilty of plotting to abolish constitutional rule and leading an armed criminal group; the ruling also extends his electoral ban to 2060. (reuters.com)

The verdict lands in a $2 trn economy of 203 m people, just as foreign direct investment is rebounding 18 % Y/Y. Investors now confront an unprecedented fact: Latin America’s largest market has criminalized a populist leader whose policies once buoyed agribusiness and spooked ESG funds. Brazil thus signals that authoritarian flirtations carry material sovereign-risk costs. (apnews.com)

Historically, Brazil jailed presidents (Collor 1992, Lula 2018) on corruption; prosecuting a coup thrusts it into Weimar-to-postwar-Germany territory—where democracy survived by punishing would-be putschists early. Whether “Bolsonarismo 2.0” mutates or withers will test regional democracies already strained by Mexico’s militarisation and Argentina’s libertarian shock therapy. As philosopher Daniel Innerarity warns, “Democracies die when they forget that conflict must be processed, not pulverised.”

— The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

Brussels Fortifies Borders

The European Union is signaling a harder line on Russia, with the European Commission preparing to recommend stricter visa rules for Russian nationals. This follows sustained pressure from Eastern European states concerned about security. In 2024 alone, EU nations issued over half a million Schengen visas to Russians, a document permitting travel across 27 member countries. The new guidelines, expected by year-end, aim to make such travel significantly more difficult, reflecting a strategic pivot to limit access for citizens of an adversarial state. This move tightens the continent’s external borders, prioritizing collective security over individual travel privileges.

US Public Health Under Scrutiny

A profound debate is unfolding in the US over the role and efficacy of public health institutions, spurred by the dismantling of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Critics argue the American health system has long been failing, pointing out the US is the “only wealthy nation in which your ability to access health care is so dependent on where you happen to have a job.” The ongoing changes under the Trump administration challenge the centralized, top-down approach to public health, forcing a national conversation about whether individual liberty and market-based solutions could yield better outcomes than bureaucratic mandates.

Starmer’s Stability Test

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who took office last July promising a return to “quieter” politics, is facing a credibility crisis. The loss of two senior government members to scandal in a single week undermines his core pledge and invites comparisons to the chaotic Conservative administration he replaced. The timing is particularly damaging, with the government’s instability on full display just as it prepares for a high-profile visit from President Trump, amplifying questions about Labour’s ability to govern effectively.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Albania’s Algorithmic Governance

Albania is set to appoint an AI, “Diella,” as a virtual cabinet minister, a move Prime Minister Edi Rama frames as a tool for streamlining public services and fighting corruption (ZDF). My view is that this represents a fascinating, if uncertain, experiment in governance. On one hand, an incorruptible, data-driven entity could theoretically cut through the political patronage and bureaucratic inertia that plagues many states—a libertarian ideal of neutral rules. Yet, the initiative raises profound questions about accountability. An algorithm, devoid of genuine responsibility, cannot be held to account by the citizenry. This initiative will be a critical test case: is it a step towards hyper-efficient, limited government, or a high-tech veneer for evading genuine political responsibility?

France’s Great Disappointment

Forget the “Great Resignation”; in France, the dominant workplace sentiment is a “Great Disappointment” (Le Monde). Research from Sciences Po highlights a growing chasm between French workers’ expectations and the reality of their jobs. The core issue isn’t a rejection of work itself, but of how it is managed. The report fingers France’s notoriously “vertical management” style as a primary cause, stifling autonomy and draining meaning from employment. This isn’t merely a Gallic quirk; it’s a clear signal that top-down, command-and-control economic models are failing the individual. For a sustainable and dynamic market, fostering environments where personal initiative and fulfillment can thrive isn’t a luxury, but a necessity for productivity and social cohesion.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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