2025-09-25 • China aims for a modest 7-10% emissions cut by 2035, focusing on wind

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

China’s new 2035 goal—cutting emissions a mere 7-10 % from peak levels—lands like a damp squib at the UN climate summit. The number sounds big until you recall that Beijing’s CO₂ output has already risen 6 % since 2020; on present trends the cut could be achieved simply by plateauing growth, not by true decarbonisation. (reuters.com)

Yet the optics matter. With Washington retreating from the Paris framework, Xi positions China as ‘responsible stakeholder’, touting a six-fold jump in wind-solar capacity and non-fossil power above 30 % of the mix. Those investments—$625 bn in 2024 alone—are warping global energy markets, driving module prices below 10 ¢/W and forcing Europe to mull defensive EV tariffs. (theguardian.com)

History cautions against both euphoria and scorn. Beijing routinely low-balls and then over-delivers (think the 2020 renewable target met five years early) even as it builds two-thirds of the world’s new coal plants. The real test is coal retirements, not summit rhetoric. As energy analyst Michael Liebreich warns, “Targets are for spreadsheets; trajectories are for the atmosphere.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Thursday, September 25, 2025

the Gist View

China’s new 2035 goal—cutting emissions a mere 7-10 % from peak levels—lands like a damp squib at the UN climate summit. The number sounds big until you recall that Beijing’s CO₂ output has already risen 6 % since 2020; on present trends the cut could be achieved simply by plateauing growth, not by true decarbonisation. (reuters.com)

Yet the optics matter. With Washington retreating from the Paris framework, Xi positions China as ‘responsible stakeholder’, touting a six-fold jump in wind-solar capacity and non-fossil power above 30 % of the mix. Those investments—$625 bn in 2024 alone—are warping global energy markets, driving module prices below 10 ¢/W and forcing Europe to mull defensive EV tariffs. (theguardian.com)

History cautions against both euphoria and scorn. Beijing routinely low-balls and then over-delivers (think the 2020 renewable target met five years early) even as it builds two-thirds of the world’s new coal plants. The real test is coal retirements, not summit rhetoric. As energy analyst Michael Liebreich warns, “Targets are for spreadsheets; trajectories are for the atmosphere.”

— The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

Quantum Leap

Quantum computing is rapidly shifting from theoretical research to real-world application, with significant breakthroughs poised to reshape finance, medicine, and materials science. Tech giants are making substantial investments in hybrid systems that merge quantum processors with classical supercomputers (Bloomberg). IBM’s upgraded Heron processors are now powering a modular platform, aiming for large-scale quantum computation. Concurrently, a collaboration between Quantum Machines and NVIDIA has produced a system linking a quantum controller to a classical AI superchip, drastically reducing latency and enabling real-time quantum error correction. Our view: The accelerating pace of quantum development underscores the imperative for markets to prepare for disruption, particularly in cryptography, where current standards face obsolescence.

Genetic Scissors Sharpened

New frontiers are opening in genetic medicine with the development of more precise and versatile gene-editing tools. Researchers have engineered a novel CRISPR-Cas12a system in mouse models that permits the simultaneous assessment of multiple genetic interactions, a significant step forward in studying complex diseases like cancer (Nature Biomedical Engineering). In a separate advance, scientists have created mvGPT, a unified tool that can both edit genes and regulate their expression at the same time, streamlining cellular therapies by reducing the amount of machinery that needs to be delivered to cells. These innovations promise to accelerate the development of treatments for a range of genetic disorders.

Global Health Under Pressure

Fresh data reveals a troubling decline in global health funding, even as chronic diseases surge. Development assistance for health plummeted to $39.1 billion in 2025, a level not seen in over 15 years, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. This represents a drop of more than one-fifth between 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, non-communicable diseases like heart disease and cancer are projected to cause 86% of all annual deaths by 2050 (AstraZeneca). A new WHO report highlights that 1.4 billion people lived with hypertension in 2024, yet fewer than one in five have it under control. This funding gap poses a severe threat to managing chronic conditions in low- and middle-income countries, where 73% of NCD-related deaths occurred in 2021 (WHO).

The Superbug Counteroffensive

In the critical battle against antimicrobial resistance, researchers are deploying artificial intelligence to design novel weapons. With no major new antibiotic discovered in nearly four decades, AI models are now generating unique chemical compounds with the potential to neutralize major superbugs like MRSA (CBC News). Separately, a new molecule developed at the University of Oxford has been shown to suppress the evolution of antibiotic resistance in bacteria, effectively renewing the potency of existing drugs like ciprofloxacin (Chemical Science). This two-pronged approach of AI-driven discovery and resistance suppression offers a renewed, market-oriented path to addressing a mounting global health crisis that claims over 1.2 million lives annually.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

China’s Ambiguous Climate Pledge

Beijing has finally tabled its updated climate target, and my initial read is one of skepticism. President Xi committed to cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% by 2035 from their (still undetermined) peak (ZDF). The pledge, delivered just weeks before the COP30 climate conference, feels strategically timed but lacks the aggressive teeth needed for real impact. From a free-market perspective, state-mandated targets often distort economic incentives and rarely outperform innovation driven by consumer demand and corporate competition. Without transparent data and market-based mechanisms, this looks more like a geopolitical maneuver than a credible plan for decarbonization.

Decoding Longevity

Science is beginning to unlock the secrets of extreme longevity, thanks to samples from María Branyas Morera, a Catalan woman who died recently at 117 years old (El Pais). Researchers are analyzing her genetics to understand the biological keys to her resilience against age-related disease. This pursuit is a testament to individual human potential and evidence-based inquiry. Rather than relying on sweeping public health mandates, such research empowers individuals with knowledge about healthy aging. It’s a powerful reminder that bottom-up scientific discovery, focused on individual variance, often yields more practical benefits than top-down policy initiatives.

Apple vs. The DMA

Apple has formally called on the EU to repeal its landmark Digital Markets Act (DMA), arguing the regulation degrades user services and security (Ansa). This is a critical challenge to Brussels’ top-down regulatory model. I’ve argued that the DMA, while well-intentioned, represents a significant overreach that could stifle the continent’s tech ecosystem. By forcing interoperability and restricting platform control, the law prioritizes a specific vision of competition over consumer choice and security. Apple’s pushback highlights the fundamental tension between centralized market engineering and the dynamic, permissionless innovation that actually delivers value.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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