2025-10-02 • Gold hit $3,895/oz, up 45% YTD, after weak U.S

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

Gold pierced $3,895 /oz overnight—up 45 % year-to-date—after weak U.S. jobs data reignited bets on Fed cuts and pushed the 2-yr Treasury yield to a two-week low. Asian bourses instantly repriced risk: Taiwan +1.5 %, Korea +2.8 %, Nikkei +0.5 %. The flight to safety wiped 0.4 % off the DXY dollar index and lifted tech-heavy MSCI Asia ex-Japan by 1.2 %. (reuters.com)

The surge exposes a deeper contradiction. Central banks (led by China) added a record 1,250 t of bullion in 2024, yet G7 governments are running their largest peace-time deficits since 1945. Investors are signalling that political gridlock in Washington—and tariff brinkmanship from both the White House and Brussels—have fatally eroded confidence in fiat promises. The EU’s own plans to slap 50 % tariffs on surplus Asian steel only reinforces the “weaponised trade” narrative. (reuters.com)

Historically, gold peaks have preceded regime change: 1979 (Volcker shock), 2011 (euro-area crisis), 2020 (pandemic QE). If policymakers now mis-time easing, they risk turning a defensive rally into a systemic run from sovereign paper. As economist Daniela Gabor warns, “safe assets are the oxygen of modern finance”—and markets are holding their breath.

— The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Thursday, October 02, 2025

the Gist View

Gold pierced $3,895 /oz overnight—up 45 % year-to-date—after weak U.S. jobs data reignited bets on Fed cuts and pushed the 2-yr Treasury yield to a two-week low. Asian bourses instantly repriced risk: Taiwan +1.5 %, Korea +2.8 %, Nikkei +0.5 %. The flight to safety wiped 0.4 % off the DXY dollar index and lifted tech-heavy MSCI Asia ex-Japan by 1.2 %. (reuters.com)

The surge exposes a deeper contradiction. Central banks (led by China) added a record 1,250 t of bullion in 2024, yet G7 governments are running their largest peace-time deficits since 1945. Investors are signalling that political gridlock in Washington—and tariff brinkmanship from both the White House and Brussels—have fatally eroded confidence in fiat promises. The EU’s own plans to slap 50 % tariffs on surplus Asian steel only reinforces the “weaponised trade” narrative. (reuters.com)

Historically, gold peaks have preceded regime change: 1979 (Volcker shock), 2011 (euro-area crisis), 2020 (pandemic QE). If policymakers now mis-time easing, they risk turning a defensive rally into a systemic run from sovereign paper. As economist Daniela Gabor warns, “safe assets are the oxygen of modern finance”—and markets are holding their breath.

— The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

Long COVID’s Molecular Roots

A Japanese study offers a potential breakthrough in understanding the “brain fog” affecting over 80% of Long COVID patients. Researchers at Yokohama City University found a widespread increase in AMPA receptors—molecules crucial for memory and learning—in the brains of individuals with Long COVID. This discovery, published in Brain Communications, provides a biological basis for the cognitive symptoms and suggests that drugs regulating these receptors could offer a therapeutic path. The imaging technique used in the study distinguished patients from healthy controls with high accuracy, pointing toward a future diagnostic tool. This is a significant step, as there are currently no FDA-approved treatments for Long COVID.

AI’s Expanding Frontier

The AI arms race continues to accelerate, with significant developments in both capability and governance. Music labels like Universal and Warner are reportedly nearing landmark licensing deals to manage AI-generated music, seeking a payment structure similar to streaming services (FT). In geopolitics, the UK is backing new AI projects in Africa to improve governance and safety, in partnership with Google.org and Canada’s AI for Development program. This initiative aims to mitigate risks and ensure African perspectives are included in global AI governance. Meanwhile, Italy has passed its own national AI law, effective this month, which complements the EU’s AI Act by focusing on specific sectors like healthcare and protecting copyright for AI-assisted works (La Repubblica).

Populism’s Echo in Europe

Populist sentiment is showing renewed strength in Central Europe, mirroring trends seen in the U.S. In the Czech Republic, agricultural tycoon Andrej Babiš is leading in polls ahead of this weekend’s parliamentary elections, buoyed by support from the country’s industrial heartland (Politico.eu). This mirrors the populist shift in other former industrial regions. His potential victory threatens to move another Central European nation away from Brussels, following a pattern of rising nationalist sentiment across the continent. This comes as EU leaders concluded a summit that, despite lengthy discussions, failed to resolve key issues, highlighting the bloc’s internal divisions (Politico.eu).

UK Climate Policy Reversal

The UK’s Conservative Party, under Kemi Badenoch, has pledged to scrap the country’s landmark Climate Change Act if it returns to power (Politico.eu). This move signals a significant retreat from the UK’s legally binding net-zero emissions targets. The 2008 law was a cornerstone of British climate policy, mandating an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The pledge creates a clear policy divide with the opposition and raises questions about the future of green investment and the UK’s international climate leadership.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Germany’s Digital Drag

Berlin is again tilting at the windmill of its own bureaucracy. Digital Minister Karsten Wildberger’s new “Modernisierungsagenda” promises to accelerate digitalization through 23 core projects, aiming for goals like 24-hour business formation. Yet, the plan feels like another top-down directive destined to clash with institutional inertia. The minister himself admits that a fundamental “mentality shift” is the real prerequisite for change (ZDF). The initiative targets a 25% reduction in bureaucratic requirements, potentially saving €16 billion, but industry groups are already skeptical, calling the agenda unambitious and demanding a more forceful “liberation” from red tape. Without structural reform of Germany’s federated administration, this latest agenda risks being a fresh coat of paint on a crumbling edifice.

Italian Grid Gets a Networked Brain

While governments issue decrees, market actors are building solutions. In Turin, Italian electricity transmission operator Terna has launched an “Innovation Zone” to bolster grid resilience against climate-related threats (Ansa). This is not a state-led industrial policy but a collaborative platform designed to consolidate a European innovation network. The hub brings together the “Deep Tech Alliance,” a collective of nineteen European incubators, and the “TSO Innovation Alliance,” comprising eight major European grid operators. The explicit goal is to foster new technologies for a system facing increasing stress from extreme weather events and the demands of integrating renewable energy sources. This decentralized, cross-border approach strikes me as a far more promising model for tackling complex technical challenges than any centrally planned agenda.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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