The WTO sliced its 2026 merchandise-trade growth outlook to a threadbare 0.5 %, while simultaneously upgrading 2025 to 2.4 % on tariff-driven “front-loading” and an AI-hardware buying spree (reuters.com). The split forecast exposes a sugar-rush pattern: demand is being yanked forward to dodge U.S. duties that average 15 % on EU goods and higher still for others, leaving a vacuum next year.

What looks like resilience is really inventory arbitrage. In the first half of 2025, trade volumes jumped 4.9 %, yet the WTO still expects 2026 to slow to the weakest pace since the post-financial-crisis trough. History rhymes: after the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, U.S. imports briefly spiked before collapsing, deepening the Depression. Today’s tariff spiral and “de-risking” rhetoric threaten a similar whiplash, and the losers will again be smaller exporters with no fiscal cushions.

If leading economies keep weaponising supply chains, even AI servers can’t offset policy uncertainty. As economist Dani Rodrik warns, “Hyper-globalisation ends not with a bang but with a policy choice.” The choice now is between short-term political optics and the long-term health of an already anaemic global economy.

— The Gist AI Editor

Greenland’s Geopolitical Future

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned Tuesday that President Trump’s interest in purchasing Greenland is a persistent threat, not a resolved issue (Politico.eu). Frederiksen stated that Denmark and the semi-sovereign territory’s 60,000 residents cannot afford to “breathe a sigh of relief,” signaling that the US ambition to acquire the resource-rich Arctic island remains a live concern. This underscores a transactional approach to foreign policy, where established norms of national sovereignty are challenged by the strategic calculations of larger powers, particularly in the increasingly vital Arctic region.

Trade Tensions and Supply Chains

Costa Rica has issued a stark warning that proposed US tariffs on medical devices would directly harm American consumers by disrupting critical health supply chains (FT). Citing national security, Washington is considering levies that would uniquely impact the Central American nation, a major manufacturing hub for US medical equipment. This policy illustrates the real-world cost of protectionism; rather than securing the nation, such tariffs risk increasing healthcare prices and creating vulnerabilities in the supply of essential goods, a direct consequence of interfering with the principles of open trade and global cooperation.

Denmark’s Proposed Digital State Control

In a significant move toward state intervention in digital life, the Danish government aims to ban social media for children under 15. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen justified the proposal by stating, “We have unleashed a monster” (Politico.eu). The policy would, however, permit parental consent for children aged 13 and over. From a libertarian standpoint, this initiative transfers fundamental parental authority to the state, substituting government mandates for family decision-making and digital literacy. It represents a worrying trend of regulatory overreach into the private sphere, prioritizing control over individual and parental responsibility.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Don’t allow Cameroon’s forever president to trample democracy again
— Financial Times

Car finance mis-selling scandal to cost banks £8.2bn, says UK regulator
— Financial Times

US tariffs on medical devices would harm Americans’ health, Costa Rica warns
— Financial Times

Denmark aims to ban social media for children under 15, PM says
— Politico.Eu

Rabobank’s Chief Rates Strategist McGuire Departs After 15 Years
— Bloomberg

Trio Wins Nobel Prize in Medicine for Discoveries on Immune System
— Wall Street Journal

Europe’s AI Brain Drain

A C-suite executive at ASML, Europe’s linchpin semiconductor firm, has openly criticised the EU’s approach to artificial intelligence. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen’s core message is that Brussels is choosing to regulate before it innovates, creating an environment where top tech talent is “buying a ticket to Silicon Valley.” (Politico). Coming from a strategically vital company like ASML, which holds a near-monopoly on the advanced lithography machines essential for manufacturing AI chips, this is a significant rebuke of EU industrial policy. The warning highlights a critical tension: Brussels’ ambition to set global regulatory standards may be actively undermining its own competitiveness and driving intellectual capital offshore. (Politico). It’s a classic case of regulatory overreach potentially stifling the very innovation it purports to govern. (Politico).

Siberian Strike Shifts Risk Calculus

Ukraine has demonstrated a significant leap in its long-range strike capabilities, targeting a Russian oil refinery in the Tyumen region of Western Siberia. The key detail here is the distance: over 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, making it one of the deepest strikes into Russian territory to date. While Moscow claims three drones were neutralized with no significant damage, the strategic implication is profound. Assets previously considered invulnerable, deep in Russia’s industrial heartland, are now within reach. This forces a strategic reallocation of Russian air defense resources away from the front lines to protect critical infrastructure, adding a new dimension to the attritional conflict.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Verbrenner-Aus: Koalition streitet um EU-Vorgabe
— ZDF

Aie a Francoforte, l’editoria italiana trade -2% nel 2025
— Ansa

A life without school in Gaza: ‘At night, I use my phone’s flashlight to study. Hunger makes it hard for me to concentrate’
— El Pais

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Benzin und Diesel: Preisunterschiede zwischen Ost und West
— ZDF

Il prezzo del gas apre in calo a 33,04 euro
— Ansa