Israel’s U.S-brokered Gaza ceasefire (in force since 10 Oct) absorbed its first serious shock overnight: Israeli jets hit Rafah and Khan Younis after Hamas killed two soldiers, leaving at least 26 Palestinians dead and 36 more across the strip by dawn.(reuters.com)

The violence exposes the deal’s structural flaw: it rests on atomised militant factions and a politically cornered Netanyahu cabinet whose coalition partners demand maximal retaliation. Since 2023, nearly 68 000 Palestinians and 1 200 Israelis have been killed; every “pause” has lasted on average just nine days—astonishingly close to the 8-day mean of truces during the 2014 war.(apnews.com)

Washington’s rapid pressure to restore aid shows the new lever is not arms but logistics: trucks, fuel, and reconstruction capital. Yet without a verified disarmament-for-development mechanism, each aid convoy simply resets the countdown to the next breach. History reminds us—Oslo’s interim arrangements became permanent limbo—that ambiguity favours spoilers. As political scientist Vali Nasr warns, “Unfinished wars reinvent themselves faster than diplomats can rename them.”

— The Gist AI Editor

China Tightens Grip on Tech Minerals

Beijing’s strategic dominance over the global rare-earths market is tightening, with new export licensing rules set to take effect. China already accounts for over 69% of global rare earth mining and nearly 90% of processing, a chokehold decades in the making (WSJ, Mining Technology). These elements are vital for everything from electric vehicles to advanced weaponry. Our take: This isn’t free trade; it’s the calculated use of market power to create geopolitical leverage. By controlling the processing—the most complex part of the supply chain—China has created a structural dependency that market forces alone will struggle to unwind, leaving Western innovation exposed (FT, German Marshall Fund).

European Defense Realigns

In response to a shifting security landscape, German industrial giant Thyssenkrupp is floating its Marine Systems division, a major submarine supplier for NATO countries (FT). The move, which could see the naval unit valued at a significant portion of the parent company’s €2.62 billion market capitalization, reflects a broader surge in European defense stocks as nations increase military spending (Reuters, AK&M). This spinoff is a pragmatic effort to unlock shareholder value and allow the defense unit to attract investment unencumbered by the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) constraints often applied to diversified industrial firms (Trend Signal).

US Sanctions Ripple Across Asia

The long arm of US economic policy is being felt in Singapore, where two SGX-listed firms, 17Live and Hengyang Petrochemical, have been impacted by American sanctions (Straits Times). The sanctions target alleged links to Cambodian cyber scams and illicit Iranian oil shipments. In response, live-streaming platform 17Live saw an independent director resign, while Hengyang Petrochemical suspended trading of its shares. This underscores a critical risk for global entrepreneurs and investors: US foreign policy can instantly sever access to capital and disrupt operations for companies far outside its direct jurisdiction, demonstrating how interconnected markets can transmit political shocks.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Blaming the OBR for the Budget maths is a waste of time
— Financial Times

Thyssenkrupp floats submarine business as defence stocks surge
— Financial Times

Early peanut exposure found to cut food allergy risks
— Financial Times

With the rise of AI, reskilling is a necessity, not a choice
— Politico.Eu

How China Took Over the World’s Rare-Earths Industry
— Wall Street Journal

2 S’pore-listed firms affected by US crackdown on Cambodia crypto scams, illicit Iranian oil
— The Straits Times

Brussels Plays Hardball on Russian Gas

The EU is moving to forcibly terminate Russian gas flows to Hungary and Slovakia, a significant escalation in its energy policy. Despite long-standing opposition from both nations, a new bill expected to pass today will give member states the power to block Russian and Belarusian gas exporters from accessing their infrastructure (Politico). This isn’t a market-driven phaseout but a political mandate, overriding national energy choices and raising questions about sovereignty and potential price hikes for Central Europe. While Brussels frames this as a security measure, it represents a notable centralization of power, effectively ending long-term supply contracts held by Budapest and Bratislava. The move signals the bloc is prioritizing geopolitical alignment over the individual economic arrangements of its member states.

Mainstream Co-opts Populist Economics

In a strategic pivot, this week’s European Council summit will directly address issues traditionally dominated by the far-right, including the housing crisis and migration (Politico). Council President António Costa has elevated housing to a challenge as pressing as the war in Ukraine. This pre-emptive strike by the political mainstream aims to neutralize populist appeal by adopting their core concerns. For markets, this signals a potential wave of interventionist policies, from social media regulation to increased state involvement in housing. While Asian markets opened strong—with Tokyo’s Nikkei index jumping 1.57%—this political shift in Europe warrants close attention as it could herald a less predictable, more state-directed economic environment.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Here comes the EU’s first anti-far-right European Council
— Politico Europe

Borsa: Tokyo, apertura in netto rialzo
— Ansa

UNAids is set to close in 2026 – four years early. Are experts right to be alarmed?
— The Guardian

Leverkusen gewinnt nach Torspektakel in Mainz
— ZDF

Grifos Kunstschuss ärgert die Eintracht
— ZDF

EU countries move to pull plug on Russian gas to Hungary and Slovakia
— Politico Europe