2025-10-26 • Russian attacks on Kyiv killed four, wounded 20. Ukraine intercepted 77% of missiles/drones

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

Russian missile-and-drone swarms ripped into Kyiv before dawn, killing four and wounding at least twenty across the capital and Dnipropetrovsk. Ukraine’s air-force says it downed 4 of 9 missiles and 50 of 62 Shahed drones—a 77 % intercept rate that nonetheless left a kindergarten ablaze and power facilities scarred. (reuters.com)

The barrage is Russia’s blunt reply to fresh U.S. oil sanctions and Kyiv’s London summit plea for 25 additional Patriot batteries. Each Patriot launcher costs roughly $1.1 billion and needs 90 trained crew—figures that starkly expose the mismatch between Ukraine’s accelerating demand and the West’s constrained defence-industrial base. Sustained nightly attacks also aim to drain scarce interceptor stockpiles before winter, replicating last year’s energy-grid blitz that shrank Ukraine’s GDP by 29 %. (apnews.com)

I read Moscow’s strategy as one of economic attrition: force Washington into a budget trade-off between Ukrainian air defence and domestic priorities while signalling to Europe that its own energy networks remain fair game. Unless NATO allies pivot from “just-in-time” deliveries to wartime production footing, deterrence will keep lagging behind destruction. As historian Timothy Snyder reminds us, “Freedom survives only where responsibility outweighs fear.”

The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Sunday, October 26, 2025

the Gist View

Russian missile-and-drone swarms ripped into Kyiv before dawn, killing four and wounding at least twenty across the capital and Dnipropetrovsk. Ukraine’s air-force says it downed 4 of 9 missiles and 50 of 62 Shahed drones—a 77 % intercept rate that nonetheless left a kindergarten ablaze and power facilities scarred. (reuters.com)

The barrage is Russia’s blunt reply to fresh U.S. oil sanctions and Kyiv’s London summit plea for 25 additional Patriot batteries. Each Patriot launcher costs roughly $1.1 billion and needs 90 trained crew—figures that starkly expose the mismatch between Ukraine’s accelerating demand and the West’s constrained defence-industrial base. Sustained nightly attacks also aim to drain scarce interceptor stockpiles before winter, replicating last year’s energy-grid blitz that shrank Ukraine’s GDP by 29 %. (apnews.com)

I read Moscow’s strategy as one of economic attrition: force Washington into a budget trade-off between Ukrainian air defence and domestic priorities while signalling to Europe that its own energy networks remain fair game. Unless NATO allies pivot from “just-in-time” deliveries to wartime production footing, deterrence will keep lagging behind destruction. As historian Timothy Snyder reminds us, “Freedom survives only where responsibility outweighs fear.”

The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

Shifting Political Cultures

A pragmatic shift in European political culture is underway as European Parliament President Roberta Metsola acknowledges working with far-right lawmakers is now a “political reality” to pass legislation (FT). This pivot reflects a fractured center and growing nationalist influence. In France, a different cultural clash is intensifying as the judiciary asserts its power, sentencing President Nicolas Sarkozy to prison for criminal conspiracy, a move critics decry as political judicial activism (WSJ, Spectator). Both developments signal a volatile period where established norms are being challenged by populist and institutional forces.

Economic Experiments & Geopolitical Hardball

Argentina’s midterm elections today are a crucial cultural test for President Javier Milei’s free-market reforms (FT). His success in slashing inflation from over 200% to 32% will be weighed against painful austerity, determining if his libertarian experiment can take root. Meanwhile, the diplomatic culture has hardened between Washington and Moscow. President Trump cancelled a planned meeting with President Putin and imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, a significant escalation aimed at forcing a ceasefire in Ukraine (NPR, Time).

A Changing Global Marketplace

Investor culture is tilting globally, as international stocks are on pace to outperform the U.S. S&P 500—a broad index of top American companies—by the widest margin since 2009 (WSJ). This suggests growing confidence in overseas markets despite ongoing trade frictions. Such frictions are impacting the culture of creation, as tariffs on musical instruments disrupt finely tuned global supply chains that serve everyone from orchestral musicians to garage bands, highlighting the broad economic impact of protectionist policies (PIIE).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Ireland’s Anti-Establishment Wave

Ireland just delivered a seismic shock to its political establishment. Independent socialist Catherine Connolly secured the presidency with a record 63.4 percent of valid votes, a landslide victory reflecting deep dissatisfaction with the governing coalition (Politico, The Irish Times). While the presidency is largely ceremonial, the result is a powerful rebuke of centrist politics. Tellingly, the election saw an unprecedented number of spoiled ballots, reportedly a protest from right-wing voters unable to nominate a candidate (The Irish Times). This isn’t just a political shift; it’s a cultural fracture, exposing a stark polarisation that legacy parties can no longer ignore. The ripple effects will likely energise populist movements on both the left and right ahead of the next general election.

Russia’s Defiant Youth

In Vladimir Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg, a potent cultural counter-signal is flashing. Hundreds of young Russians have been gathering for impromptu street concerts to sing anti-war and anti-Putin songs, specifically an anthem by the exiled rapper Noize MC that is banned as “extremist” (ZDF). The repeated line, “let the old man shake in fear,” leaves little to ambiguity. Authorities have responded with arrests, sentencing an 18-year-old female musician to 13 days in jail for organising the singalong (Reuters). This isn’t a mass uprising, but it’s a significant indicator of cultural dissent among a generation with no memory of Soviet rule. The Kremlin’s harsh reaction to a street musician underscores its fundamental insecurity about controlling the youth narrative.

Spain’s Inherited Economy

A generational chasm is widening in Spain, threatening the cultural and economic assumption of upward mobility. New reports highlight a closed loop for young Spaniards: priced out of home ownership, they spend more on rent, save less, and inherit late (El Pais). The homeownership rate for those under 35 has collapsed to just 32%, compared to 80% for those over 65 (40dB). This is creating a society increasingly dependent on intergenerational wealth transfers, where starting capital is determined by birthright, not enterprise. For a market economy, this trend is corrosive, stifling dynamism and locking in inequality. It suggests a future where economic outcomes are inherited, not earned.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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