A day before Dutch voters confront the country’s ninth general election this century, Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV again tops the polls while 26 other parties jostle for 149 remaining seats. Immigration dominates: Wilders pledges a total asylum freeze; even centrists echo his rhetoric. The ballot paper now lists 1,166 candidates—an emblem of political atomisation that makes post-election bargaining ever longer and governance ever thinner. (apnews.com)

Fiscal anxiety feeds the mood. A viral claim that each “non-Western” migrant costs €600 000 exaggerates a study showing most labour migrants actually contribute a positive €100 000 over a lifetime, while fiscal costs concentrate in a narrow refugee cohort. Yet the distortion—amplified online and rarely corrected—illustrates how selective data drive policy panic. (euronews.com)

Europe’s centre once managed fragmentation through grand coalitions; today it courts the fringe. The Netherlands risks becoming the EU’s “Weimar on the North Sea,” where incessant elections normalise extreme positions without delivering durable majorities. Unless mainstream parties articulate credible housing and productivity fixes, they will keep governing on the far right’s terms. As novelist Ilja Leonard Pfeijffer warns, “Populism is the price we pay when complexity meets impatience.”

— The Gist AI Editor

EU’s Russian Asset Gambit

The EU faces a deadlock over leveraging €200 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine, a plan now postponed until at least December (FT, Politico.eu). The proposal involves using the assets to back a “reparation loan,” which Ukraine would only repay if Moscow offers war reparations. However, Belgium, where most of the assets are held at the Euroclear clearing house, is withholding consent, fearing legal risks and potential liability if Russia sues (Reuters). This financial maneuvering highlights the tension between the moral imperative to support Kyiv and the legal and economic anxieties of member states, especially with US aid diminishing under President Trump.

New Skeptic Bloc in Brussels

A potential Ukraine-skeptic alliance is forming within the EU, with Hungary looking to partner with the new right-wing populist government in Czechia and Slovakia’s like-minded leadership (Politico.eu). Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is reportedly seeking to join forces with Czechia’s Andrej Babiš and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. This coalition of the obstinate could further complicate EU decision-making on critical issues, from aid to Ukraine to sanctions against Russia. Our view: Such alliances challenge the EU’s already strained unity, potentially creating a powerful bloc that prioritizes national interests over collective action, a dynamic that often benefits authoritarian actors.

The Nuclear Answer to AI’s Thirst

The voracious energy demands of artificial intelligence are prompting a rethink of nuclear power. Big Tech firms like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are increasingly turning to nuclear energy to power their expansive data centers (WSJ, FT). The Trump administration is championing this “nuclear renaissance,” aiming to quadruple US nuclear capacity to 400 gigawatts by 2050 through streamlined regulations and fast-tracked reactor development. This pivot underscores a pragmatic shift: the digital economy’s exponential growth requires reliable, carbon-free, baseload power that intermittent renewables alone cannot currently provide. The push, however, raises valid concerns about bypassing traditional regulatory oversight (Inside Climate News).

Middle East Prisoner Exchange

A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East has seen the exchange of hostages and prisoners, a development met with both relief and apprehension (WSJ, Reuters). As part of a deal, Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of 20 Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The release of prisoners, some convicted for violent attacks, has been met with alarm by victims’ families who fear it will incentivize further violence. This delicate exchange highlights the complex human and political calculus involved in de-escalating long-standing conflicts, where steps toward peace are often fraught with painful compromises.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Bechtel boss urges US government to share risk of nuclear build-out
— Financial Times

Europe needs a fix to its rules on markets and finance
— Financial Times

Nobody Ever Got Younger, but It May Be Worth a Try
— Wall Street Journal

How OpenAI’s $1.5tn deal machine works
— Financial Times

Victims of Palestinian Attacks Say Prisoner Releases Will Lead to More Violence
— Wall Street Journal

A Dormant Nuclear Plant in Iowa Is Poised to Power Google’s Energy Needs
— Wall Street Journal

Hungary’s Rule of Law Abyss

The World Justice Project’s (WJP) latest report confirms Hungary’s position as the EU’s laggard on the rule of law. Budapest scored 0.50 out of a possible 1.0, marking it as the worst performer in the 27-member bloc (Politico). This metric, which assesses adherence to principles like constraints on government power and fundamental rights, offers a stark quantification of democratic erosion. For markets and individuals, this is not an abstract score; it signals a decaying legal framework, heightening risks for investment and civil liberties. The continued slide will undoubtedly fuel further confrontations between Brussels and the Orbán government, especially concerning the disbursement of EU funds and the integrity of the Union’s foundational, anti-authoritarian principles.

Dutch Liberalism’s Crisis

In the Netherlands, the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)—long the dominant force under Mark Rutte—is facing a “desperate fight for relevance” in this week’s national election (Politico). The party has seen a significant slump in polls since the collapse of the government in June. Latest polls project the VVD could win as few as 14 or 15 seats in the 150-seat parliament, a steep fall from its previous position. This decline is more than a domestic political shift; it signifies a potential weakening of a key pro-market, fiscally conservative voice within the European Council. A diminished VVD could create a vacuum in European classical-liberal leadership, potentially tilting EU policy debates on trade and fiscal discipline toward more statist or protectionist stances.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Veggie-Burger: Agrarminister Rainer gegen Namensverbot
— ZDF

How tariffs hurt the ones you love
— CEPR

Astaxanthin: Nahrungsergänzungsmittel mit fraglicher Wirkung
— ZDF

Mark Rutte’s Dutch liberals were dominant for years. Now the party is bleeding support.
— Politico Europe

¿Tiene truco la petición de ampliar la vida de Almaraz?
— El Pais

DFB-Pokal Matchbar
— ZDF