The Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut its policy rate to 3.75-4.00 % this afternoon, navigating “in a fog” after a 29-day data-starving shutdown and signs of liquidity strain that have pushed banks back to crisis-era funding windows.(reuters.com) Futures now price a December follow-up cut at 90 % and expect an early end to quantitative tightening after $2 tn of balance-sheet runoff.(ft.com)

Yet cheaper money is no panacea. U.S. non-defence R&D investment has already fallen three straight quarters in real terms; each 100-bp drop in the fed-funds rate historically lifts such spending by barely 0.4 %, far less than the 1 % hit delivered by a single month of shutdown-delayed contracts. The risk is a policy that props markets while starving the very innovation advantage Washington says it needs against Beijing—especially as China weaponises rare-earth supply and accelerates its own R&D subsidies.

As economist Mariana Mazzucato warns, “a low cost of capital is meaningless if the public purpose is hollowed out by austerity of imagination.” —The Gist AI Editor

Big Tech’s Brussels Blitz

American technology giants are escalating their lobbying efforts in Brussels to unprecedented levels as the European Union tightens its regulatory grip on the digital sector (Politico.eu). The ten largest tech firms, including Meta, Apple, and Google, are now outspending the top ten companies in the pharmaceutical, finance, and automotive industries combined. This surge in expenditure is a direct response to landmark EU legislation like the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA), which aim to curb anticompetitive practices and compel platforms to police content more aggressively. Our take: While robust corporate advocacy is a feature of open societies, such concentrated spending power risks drowning out smaller innovators and warping policy to favor incumbents, undermining the very competition the EU seeks to foster.

The Gates Foundation’s Global Health Agenda

The Gates Foundation’s significant financial contributions are reportedly skewing the priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), particularly in the wake of a US retreat from the global health stage (FT). A recent study suggests that the foundation’s targeted funding directs the WHO’s focus towards specific diseases and initiatives favored by the philanthropy, potentially at the expense of broader health system improvements. The foundation has become the WHO’s second-largest donor. This dynamic raises critical questions about accountability; when a private, unelected entity wields such influence over a public international body, it can sideline the democratically determined health priorities of member states. Ensuring a diversity of funding sources is paramount for the WHO’s independence.

UK’s Innovation Imperative

A new report warns that the UK must address “systemic weaknesses” in its research and development (R&D) framework or risk losing major innovation projects (FT). A government-convened task force is calling for decisive action to align innovation priorities with the nation’s industrial strategy. This comes as British manufacturers’ investment in new equipment has fallen to its lowest point since 2017, with R&D spending also declining (The Business Times). For a post-Brexit economy aiming to be a global hub for science and technology, failing to create a stable, attractive environment for private R&D investment is a critical vulnerability. The government’s role should be to clear regulatory hurdles and foster a competitive tax environment, not to centrally plan innovation.

The Rising Tide of Digital Fraud

Financial fraud is becoming more pervasive, with BNP Paribas being the latest major bank to report a significant hit (FT). As economic conditions shift, analysts anticipate a further infestation of fraudulent activity, which is increasingly powered by sophisticated digital tools. In the first half of 2025, criminals stole £629.3 million in the UK alone, a 3% increase from the previous year, with over 2.09 million confirmed cases (UK Finance). This underscores a critical challenge for the digital economy: securing networks and protecting individuals without stifling the open transactions that drive growth. The data suggests a need for innovation not just in financial products, but in the security architecture that underpins them.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

UK must fix ‘systemic R&D weakness’ or lose big projects, report warns
— Financial Times

If fraud is like cockroaches, beware the next infestation
— Financial Times

Gates Foundation skews global health agenda after US retreat, study says
— Financial Times

Big Tech ups lobbying firepower, €€ in Brussels
— Politico.Eu

Judge ramps up pressure on Bart De Wever over fragile rule of law in Belgium
— Politico.Eu

Washington’s Oil Dilemma Returns: How to Hurt Moscow Without Raising Gas Prices
— Wall Street Journal

Hacking Deep Time

A breakthrough in environmental DNA (eDNA)—genetic material extracted from the environment—has unveiled a two-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland (ZDF). Scientists sequenced ancient genetic fragments directly from soil samples, revealing a hot world that existed before the ice age. This technological leap matters because it provides an unprecedentedly clear window into deep climate history without relying on fossils, offering vital data for modeling future climate scenarios. It’s a powerful example of how novel, evidence-based tools can fundamentally re-write our understanding of the past.

Salvini’s Concrete Gamble

Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini is staking his political capital on a colossal infrastructure play: a bridge connecting Sicily’s 4.8 million inhabitants to the mainland (Politico). Resurrecting the decades-old ambition, Salvini is betting on a grand, state-led project to physically and politically unite the country. For skeptics, it represents a high-risk, multi-billion-euro venture that prioritizes monumental engineering over more market-driven, decentralized development. The project’s fate will be a potent case study on the fiscal prudence of modern European mega-projects.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Netanjahu ordnet “intensive Angriffe” im Gazastreifen an
— ZDF

Portugal restringe el acceso a la nacionalidad a los extranjeros como exigía la ultraderecha
— El Pais

How a radical experiment to bring a forest into a preschool transformed children’s health
— The Guardian

Hurrikan: Regierung erklärt Jamaika zum Katastrophengebiet
— ZDF

Die Jagd nach dem ältesten Erbgut der Welt
— ZDF

Test balistico di Pyongyang prima della visita di Trump a Seul
— Ansa