D66’s narrow but decisive win (≈18 % of votes, 27 of 150 seats) over Geert Wilders’ PVV— which has slid from 37 seats in 2023 to the low-20s— signals Europe’s electoral pendulum swinging back toward the pragmatic centre after two years of populist turbulence. (reuters.com)

Yet Rob Jetten’s putative premiership will be forged in the crucible of fragmentation: he must woo at least three parties to clear the 76-seat threshold, a coalition arithmetic last solved only by the ill-fated 2024 PVV-led bloc. Failure would prolong caretaker budgets just as Dutch inflation (4.1 % YoY) outpaces euro-area peers and Brussels debates reinstating fiscal rules. The centre therefore regains influence, but not authority. (reuters.com)

The deeper pattern is voter fatigue with grand gestures—Brexit, Orbanism, Wilders’ brief rule—without delivery on housing or healthcare. As historian Timothy Garton Ash warns, “liberalism survives when it proves it can govern.” Europe’s task is less ideological victory than competent execution. The Hague now becomes the test lab. (theguardian.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Dutch Election Tilts Centrist

In the Netherlands, the centrist-liberal D66 party, led by Rob Jetten, has secured a narrow victory in the snap general election (Politico.eu). With 99.7% of votes counted, D66 is just 15,155 votes ahead of Geert Wilders’ populist Party for Freedom (PVV), with both parties projected to win 26 seats in the 150-seat parliament. This razor-thin margin signals a complex and protracted period of coalition negotiations. Caretaker Prime Minister Dick Schoof has already warned that a new government is unlikely to be formed before Christmas, highlighting the deep fragmentation in the Dutch political landscape (Politico.eu). The result is a setback for the anti-immigration platform and a modest win for pro-European liberals.

Private Credit Markets Show Confidence

Contrary to jitters in some financial circles, leaders in the private credit sector project robust health. Blue Owl Capital’s co-CEO Marc Lipschultz dismissed concerns as “mass hysteria,” citing accelerating wealth flows and healthy portfolio companies (Bloomberg). The private credit market, which involves non-bank institutions making loans to companies, has grown to nearly $2 trillion in assets under management as of 2024. This viewpoint suggests that despite a higher interest rate environment, sophisticated investors see continued opportunity in private debt, valuing its flexible and direct lending structures outside of traditional public markets.

European Gas Prices Ease

European natural gas prices are on course for a weekly loss, providing some relief for consumers and industry. Mild weather forecasts are limiting heating demand, a fundamental market driver (WSJ). Dutch TTF gas futures, the European benchmark, were trading below €32 per megawatt-hour in late October. This trend highlights the market’s sensitivity to weather patterns and the current sufficiency of supply, a welcome development for households and businesses facing high energy costs. The price decline demonstrates the effectiveness of market forces in adjusting to real-time supply and demand signals.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Eurostar gets the competition its passengers deserve
— Financial Times

Onset Financial: the rap sheet
— Financial Times

Blue Owl’s Lipschultz Says Private Credit Ecosystem Is Very Healthy
— Bloomberg

Why AI is a double-edged sword for retailers
— Financial Times

Getting STR rules right: A smarter path for Europe’s tourism
— Politico.Eu

European Gas Price Set for Weekly Loss on Mild Weather
— Wall Street Journal

Eurozone’s Inflation Puzzle

Eurozone inflation edged down to 2.1% in October, a slight deceleration from September’s 2.2% and tantalisingly close to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. This cooling was driven primarily by a 1.0% annual drop in energy costs, with benchmark European natural gas futures trading down to around €31.18 per megawatt-hour (Politico, Morningstar). However, the headline number masks a telling divergence: services inflation accelerated to 3.4%. The ECB held its key deposit rate at 2.0% this week, signalling a wait-and-see approach (ECB). From my view, this is a prudent pause. Further rate hikes would do little to address sticky service prices but could easily stifle fragile economic growth. The data highlights the limits of monetary policy in an economy shaped by complex supply-side pressures.

Dutch Election Delivers Deadlock

The snap Dutch election has produced a deeply fragmented parliament, presaging a period of intense political horse-trading and market uncertainty. The liberal D66 party, under Rob Jetten, and Geert Wilders’ populist PVV are in a virtual tie, both projected to win 26 seats in the 150-seat legislature (ZDF, Politico). While a win for the pro-EU D66 will be welcomed in Brussels, the razor-thin margin signals a polarised electorate and makes forming a stable, pro-growth governing coalition exceptionally difficult. For Europe’s fifth-largest economy, this deadlock creates a policy vacuum on critical issues from fiscal strategy to nitrogen emissions, a challenge for any leader hoping to implement a clear, market-oriented agenda.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Vogelgrippe: Keine Gefahr bei Verzehr von Eiern und Geflügel
— ZDF

Eurozone inflation slows despite rising cost of services
— Politico Europe

What US school kids are learning about climate
— Deutsche Welle

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Niederlande: Linksliberale gewinnen Wahl – so geht’s weiter
— ZDF

Il gas chiude chiude in ribasso sulla piazza Ttf di Amsterdam
— Ansa