Typhoon Kalmaegi (locally “Tino”) slammed into the central Philippines overnight, killing at least one person, flooding low-lying Samar and Leyte and forcing the evacuation of more than 20 000 residents. The storm packed sustained winds of 85 km/h and dumped up to 150 mm of rain in 12 hours, paralysing inter-island shipping and cutting power across Eastern Visayas. (reuters.com)

Beyond the immediate human toll, Kalmaegi exposes a structural vulnerability: the archipelago has logged 20 named storms already this year—double the 30-year average for this date—and the Philippine weather bureau says sea-surface temperatures are 1.2 °C above the 1991-2020 norm. Each incremental degree of warming boosts tropical-cyclone rainfall potential by roughly 7 %, according to IPCC estimates, compounding infrastructure costs that Manila’s finance ministry pegs at 2 % of GDP annually.

The broader signal is clear: climate risk is becoming a permanent drag on emerging-market creditworthiness and supply-chain reliability across Southeast Asia—from semiconductors in Laguna to nickel in Surigao. Policymakers fixate on AI bubbles and tariff theatrics, yet the real macro-threat may be the steady monetisation of extreme weather. As philosopher Timothy Morton reminds us, “Hyperobjects are so vast they defeat traditional ideas of management.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Mexico’s Security Crossroads

The assassination of a mayor is intensifying the debate over Mexico’s cartel strategy under President Claudia Sheinbaum. She has explicitly ruled out a return to a confrontational, military-led “war on drug traffickers,” reaffirming a less aggressive security policy (WSJ). This stance carries significant geopolitical weight, directly impacting security and intelligence cooperation with the United States. From our perspective, large-scale state-led campaigns against cartels have a poor track record, often fueling violence and eroding civil liberties without dismantling the underlying economic incentives.

UK Populists Question Central Bank Independence

In the UK, the deputy leader of the populist Reform UK party is calling for a “rethink” of the Bank of England’s mandate (Politico.eu). The proposal puts the independence of the Monetary Policy Committee, the body that has set interest rates free from political interference since 1997, into question. For global markets, central bank independence is a bedrock principle of stable, predictable economic governance. Any move to subordinate monetary policy to political ends would risk significant capital flight and currency instability, injecting a dose of risk into a major world economy.

US Political Barometer & Global Market Anxiety

All eyes are on the United States as several states hold off-year elections, serving as a crucial political barometer one year into President Trump’s second term (FT). The outcomes will shape the political capital available for his administration’s domestic and foreign policy agenda. Simultaneously, a note of caution is sounding in Asian markets, where a strong dependency on the US-driven AI boom is raising fears of a potential “bubble” (FT). This reliance exposes the region’s markets to a sharp correction if the US tech sector falters. Reflecting wider sentiment, oil prices edged lower on persistent supply concerns (WSJ).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

America votes: five states to watch in the off-year elections
— Financial Times

First Brands sues founder Patrick James over alleged fraud
— Financial Times

The CEO Behind Kimberly-Clark’s $40 Billion Gamble on Tylenol Maker
— Wall Street Journal

Asian markets’ reliance on AI boom raises ‘bubble’ fears
— Financial Times

A Mayor’s Assassination Reignites Mexico’s Debate Over Confronting Cartels
— Wall Street Journal

Oil Edges Lower Amid Supply Concerns
— Wall Street Journal

Germany’s Coalition Cracks Over Syria

A fissure is opening in Berlin’s ruling coalition over migration. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul’s observation that destroyed infrastructure makes a rapid return of Syrian refugees unlikely has drawn sharp rebukes from his own CDU/CSU colleagues (ZDF, Politico). Hardliners are demanding deportations begin, citing the coalition’s own agreement, while Wadephul’s on-the-ground assessment highlights the chasm between political rhetoric and reality (Anadolu Ajansı). This internal conflict over a core voter issue reveals a government at odds with itself. The paralysis it creates could stall progress on a coherent, long-term migration strategy, leaving Germany—and by extension, Europe—vulnerable to reactive policymaking driven by political pressure rather than pragmatic assessment.

Kyiv’s Winter of Discontent

As Ukraine braces for a freezing winter, the political temperature in Kyiv is rising over energy security (Politico). With Russian attacks systematically targeting the power grid, President Zelenskyy faces mounting criticism for alleged unpreparedness. The former head of the state-owned power company has accused the government of a “politically motivated vendetta” and of ignoring a plan to safeguard the sector against Russian assaults (Politico). These internal disputes are a dangerous distraction. Widespread blackouts could not only precipitate a humanitarian crisis and trigger fresh refugee flows but also erode domestic morale and political unity, a critical asset in the prolonged war effort.

An Authoritarian AI Axis

Russia and China have formalized a pact to deepen cooperation on artificial intelligence, establishing a joint expert council to align on everything from training to technological standards (Ansa). This isn’t merely a technical collaboration; it’s the foundation of a strategic technology bloc. By pooling resources, Moscow and Beijing aim to accelerate their AI capabilities to counter Western dominance and, more critically, to shape global AI governance around principles of state control. For Europe, this represents a stark challenge to the open, innovation-led model. The risk is a bifurcated digital world with competing operating philosophies—one championing individual liberty, the other perfecting digital authoritarianism.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Syrien-Debatte: Widerspricht Wadephul den Koalitions-Plänen?
— ZDF

This Trillionaire Economy Thrived in a Global Order Trump Is Ditching
— New York Times

The EU’s global health test: Invest or retreat
— Politico Europe

FC Bayern bei PSG: Rock ‘n’ Roll im Prinzenpark
— ZDF

US-Schauspielerin Diane Ladd gestorben
— ZDF

As freezing winter blackouts loom, Zelenskyy faces criticism over energy supply
— Politico Europe