Tokyo’s overnight decision to dispatch veteran diplomat Takeo Mori to Beijing signals how perilous the Taiwan cross-fire has become. China’s retaliatory travel warning—issued hours earlier—targets the 25 % of Japan’s inbound visitors who are Chinese, a flow worth roughly ¥2.2 trn ($14 bn) in annual spending (reuters.com). Markets reacted instantly: department-store giant Isetan Mitsukoshi plunged 10.7 %, while tourism bellwether Oriental Land fell 5.9 % (reuters.com).

Yet this is bigger than tourism. Bilateral trade tops $300 bn and the Senkaku/Diaoyu flashpoint abuts the world’s busiest sea-lanes. A single deleted tweet from China’s Osaka consul threatening to “cut off that dirty neck” pushed Japanese MPs to seek his expulsion, recalling Beijing’s 2010 rare-earth embargo after a similar island clash (ft.com). The risk calculus now extends to chip supply chains and alliance commitments under the U.S.–Japan security treaty.

I read Beijing’s gambit less as punishment than as deterrence: weaponising tourism and social media costs China little but exploits Japan’s post-pandemic growth model. If Mori returns empty-handed, expect capital to price a tail-risk premium across all East-Asian equities. “Interdependence breeds its own form of leverage,” warns strategist Parag Khanna—and leverage, once applied, seldom retracts quietly.

— The Gist AI Editor

Europe’s Industrial Ambitions Stumble

Europe’s state-led industrial strategy is hitting a wall. Berlin and Paris are weighing the cancellation of their €100bn joint fighter jet program amid corporate infighting (FT). This echoes the “crushing failure” of Gaia-X, a five-year initiative meant to challenge US tech giants that ultimately ceded market share to American “hyperscalers”—the dominant cloud providers (Politico.eu). These episodes underscore the limits of political directives in supplanting market-driven innovation.

China’s EV Market Accelerates

The global auto market’s center of gravity is shifting. Geely, China’s second-largest EV maker, posted a sharp profit rise after a 43% year-on-year sales surge in the third quarter, moving 76,100 vehicles (WSJ). This hard data confirms the intensifying competitive pressure on Western automakers, driven by China’s scale and market speed. It is a stark contrast to Europe’s state-led industrial stumbles.

Climate Finance Impasse

At the UN COP30 climate summit, Al Gore accused Saudi Arabia of deliberately obstructing progress on climate finance (FT). The gridlock exposes the raw economic conflict between major fossil fuel producers and the global decarbonization agenda. The outcome will determine capital flows for green tech and impact the economic trajectory of energy-dependent nations, highlighting how entrenched interests can stall cooperative efforts.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Gore points finger at Saudi blocking tactics at UN COP30 climate summit
— Financial Times

What happens when housing supply is driven by markets not Main Street
— Financial Times

How Trump Lowered Medical Premiums and Expanded Choice
— Wall Street Journal

Berlin and Paris discuss scrapping planned joint fighter and focusing on air ‘combat cloud’
— Financial Times

Geely Automobile Net Profit Rises Sharply on Robust Sales
— Wall Street Journal

Hamas’s Popularity Rises in Gaza, Complicating Trump Plan to Disarm Militants
— Wall Street Journal

Germany’s Unsteady China Hand

Berlin’s approach to Beijing appears increasingly erratic. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s current trip to discuss fair competition is being openly criticized by coalition partners as “planlos” or planless (ZDF). This follows the recent cancellation of the Foreign Minister’s visit after Beijing offered only limited high-level talks, a move widely seen as a diplomatic snub (Reuters). For an export-oriented economy like Germany, a coherent and unified government strategy is essential to counter China’s state-led model. This disarray projects weakness, undermining Germany’s leverage to protect its economic interests and advocate for the open market principles it espouses.

France’s Phantom Innovation Budget

France’s commitment to research and innovation is facing scrutiny over its accounting practices. An analysis reveals Paris’s budget for research and higher education is artificially inflated; of the €25.8 billion voted, only €23.1 billion represents genuine new investment (Le Monde). An accounting convention in place since 2006 effectively overstates the budget by around 10%. This budgetary sleight-of-hand starves the very sectors intended to drive future growth and competitiveness. For a nation aiming to be an innovation leader, such fiscal opacity erodes trust and misdirects vital capital away from entrepreneurs and scientists.

Italy’s Daylight Liberation

A significant grassroots movement in Italy is pushing to end the biannual clock change. Over 352,000 citizens have signed a petition demanding the adoption of permanent daylight saving time, prompting a formal parliamentary inquiry. Lawmakers will now investigate the economic and social benefits of making summer hours permanent, with a potential legislative proposal expected by mid-2026 (Ansa). This initiative challenges a long-standing, state-mandated inefficiency. The core of the debate is whether the perceived benefits of energy savings and aligning with natural human rhythms outweigh the bureaucratic inertia of the current system—a classic test of individual preference versus centralized control.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Grüne: China-Reise von Klingbeil wirkt “planlos”
— ZDF

Dans la recherche, un budget en trompe-l’œil
— Le monde

With neonicotinoid pesticide ban, France’s birds make a tentative recovery – study
— The Guardian

Das finale Kapitel
— ZDF

Flugzeugträger erreicht Karibik nach tödlichen US-Angriffen
— ZDF

Ora legale, 352mila firme per renderla permanente
— Ansa