2025-11-20 • Nvidia’s $57B Q3 revenue boosts markets, but reliance on hyperscalers and risks

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

Nvidia’s $57 billion third-quarter revenue—up 62 % year-on-year and topping already lofty forecasts—has jolted global markets back to risk-on mode; tech-heavy bourses from Tokyo to Seoul jumped more than 3 % overnight, while U.S. equity futures erased a week-long slide.(reuters.com)

Yet I remain wary. Sixty-one percent of that sales haul came from just four hyperscalers, and the company is now projecting a record $65 billion in Q4—numbers that echo Cisco’s hubristic run-up before the 2000 crash.(reuters.com) With land, power and engineering talent already scarce, the cap-ex arms race risks crowding out broader innovation and tightening labor markets far beyond Silicon Valley—exactly the misallocation the IMF warns is dragging medium-term G20 growth to a post-crisis low.(reuters.com)

Investors are celebrating today’s pop, but consolidation of compute—and capital—into a single node leaves the system brittle. As Tim O’Reilly cautions, “If we build castles in the air, we shouldn’t be surprised when gravity reasserts itself.” (Tools of Change, 2025).

The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Thursday, November 20, 2025

the Gist View

Nvidia’s $57 billion third-quarter revenue—up 62 % year-on-year and topping already lofty forecasts—has jolted global markets back to risk-on mode; tech-heavy bourses from Tokyo to Seoul jumped more than 3 % overnight, while U.S. equity futures erased a week-long slide.(reuters.com)

Yet I remain wary. Sixty-one percent of that sales haul came from just four hyperscalers, and the company is now projecting a record $65 billion in Q4—numbers that echo Cisco’s hubristic run-up before the 2000 crash.(reuters.com) With land, power and engineering talent already scarce, the cap-ex arms race risks crowding out broader innovation and tightening labor markets far beyond Silicon Valley—exactly the misallocation the IMF warns is dragging medium-term G20 growth to a post-crisis low.(reuters.com)

Investors are celebrating today’s pop, but consolidation of compute—and capital—into a single node leaves the system brittle. As Tim O’Reilly cautions, “If we build castles in the air, we shouldn’t be surprised when gravity reasserts itself.” (Tools of Change, 2025).

The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

AI Spurs Tech Rally & Research Revolution

Strong earnings from chipmaker Nvidia are fueling a global tech stock rally, calming fears of an “AI bubble” (FT, Reuters). The company reported a 62% year-over-year revenue increase to $57 billion, beating expectations and projecting continued strong demand. This underscores the massive capital investment flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure. Our view: This isn’t just market froth; it reflects a fundamental technological shift. Meanwhile, Google launched Scholar Labs, an AI-powered tool for academic research that analyzes full papers, moving beyond traditional citation metrics (Marginal Revolution). This could democratize and accelerate scientific discovery, though its departure from established quality indicators will face scrutiny.

The Silent Pandemic

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat, with projections suggesting it could cause 10 million deaths annually by 2050 if unaddressed (Politico.eu, WEF). Described as a “silent pandemic,” AMR threatens to undermine modern medicine, making routine procedures risky. In Europe, bloodstream infections from resistant K. pneumoniae bacteria have surged by an estimated 60% between 2019 and 2024 (The Pharmaceutical Journal). The UK is investing £45 million into six AI-driven research programs to discover new drugs and better predict the spread of resistant pathogens, a promising, innovation-led approach to a critical global health challenge.

Geopolitical & Economic Fault Lines

Talks between the UK and EU over a defense industrial pact have stalled. The EU is asking for €4.5 billion to €6.5 billion for the UK to participate in its Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, while London has offered only €200 million to €300 million (Politico.eu). This impasse highlights the continued friction in post-Brexit relations. In Asia, Beijing is forcing a consolidation in its financial sector, with state-owned investment bank CICC set to acquire two smaller rivals (FT). The move aims to create a brokerage with over 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in assets, part of a broader strategy to build globally competitive financial institutions.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

UK’s Pandemic Data Gamble

London is on the verge of unlocking a vast trove of pandemic-era patient data for broader scientific inquiry. Health Secretary Wes Streeting is set to approve the “GP Data for Consented Research” directive, repurposing a dataset initially gathered exclusively for Covid-19 studies (Politico). This move pits the immense potential for medical breakthroughs against legitimate privacy concerns from the medical community. For innovation, the upside is clear: a rich, anonymised resource for tackling everything from cancer to rare diseases. The critical test, however, will be in the execution. If the NHS can safeguard this data while accelerating research, it could create a powerful new model; any misstep would be a significant setback for public trust in state-held data, chilling future large-scale research initiatives.

Germany Hardens Its Skies

In a notable pivot on domestic security, Berlin is turning to its military to counter aerial threats. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt’s amendment to the Luftsicherheitsgesetz (Air Security Act), just approved by the cabinet, is a direct response to increased incursions by suspected Russian drones (ZDF). The plan explicitly calls for support from the Bundeswehr (the German armed forces) to combat hostile military drones within German airspace. This policy shift acknowledges a new reality where conventional law enforcement is ill-equipped for state-level threats. While blurring the lines between military and domestic roles is a step that warrants scrutiny, it’s a pragmatic adaptation to evolving hybrid warfare tactics that directly target civilian infrastructure and airspace.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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