2025-11-26 • Taipei boosts defense to 3.3% of GDP, aiming for 5% by

Evening Analysis – The Gist

Taipei’s NT$1.25 trn (US $40 bn) special-budget vaults defence outlays to 3.3 % of GDP next year—double 2015 levels and on a glide-path to 5 % by 2030. The island is signalling that the price of deterrence has permanently risen; even Berlin’s €100 bn Zeitenwende looks modest on a per-capita basis. (reuters.com)

Yet scale alone won’t suffice. Two-thirds of the package funds asymmetric systems—drones, anti-ship missiles, a “Taiwan Dome” air shield—shifting from prestige hardware to survivable, networked kits that can exhaust a numerically superior PLA. Washington welcomes the pivot, but its own defence-industrial backlog exceeds $19 bn in undelivered Taiwan orders, exposing a strategic supply-chain bottleneck. (apnews.com)

Beijing’s predictable ire—and Tokyo’s counter-moves—show Asia’s security dilemma hardening into an arms-race equilibrium. History warns that spending races rarely de-escalate by themselves; the 1906–1914 naval buildup added 40 % to European budgets before catastrophe struck. Whether Taipei’s gamble buys time for dialogue or cements confrontation hinges on parallel diplomatic imagination. As Joseph Nye reminds us, “Power is the ability to alter others’ behaviour; legitimacy decides whether that power endures.” (reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Evening Analysis • Wednesday, November 26, 2025

the Gist View

Taipei’s NT$1.25 trn (US $40 bn) special-budget vaults defence outlays to 3.3 % of GDP next year—double 2015 levels and on a glide-path to 5 % by 2030. The island is signalling that the price of deterrence has permanently risen; even Berlin’s €100 bn Zeitenwende looks modest on a per-capita basis. (reuters.com)

Yet scale alone won’t suffice. Two-thirds of the package funds asymmetric systems—drones, anti-ship missiles, a “Taiwan Dome” air shield—shifting from prestige hardware to survivable, networked kits that can exhaust a numerically superior PLA. Washington welcomes the pivot, but its own defence-industrial backlog exceeds $19 bn in undelivered Taiwan orders, exposing a strategic supply-chain bottleneck. (apnews.com)

Beijing’s predictable ire—and Tokyo’s counter-moves—show Asia’s security dilemma hardening into an arms-race equilibrium. History warns that spending races rarely de-escalate by themselves; the 1906–1914 naval buildup added 40 % to European budgets before catastrophe struck. Whether Taipei’s gamble buys time for dialogue or cements confrontation hinges on parallel diplomatic imagination. As Joseph Nye reminds us, “Power is the ability to alter others’ behaviour; legitimacy decides whether that power endures.” (reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

UK Prioritizes State Revenue in New Budget

Chancellor Rachel Reeves signaled a significant fiscal tightening, introducing a £26 billion revenue-raising package to stabilize the UK’s finances (Bloomberg). The government will maintain a windfall tax—a levy on exceptionally high profits—on North Sea oil and gas producers and is set for the first fuel duty hike in over a decade (Bloomberg, FT). While investors initially expressed relief, the policy mix is viewed as a medium-term negative for the sterling currency (WSJ). Our take: Relying on targeted tax hikes and levies on energy producers is a familiar playbook that often chills investment and dampens long-term economic dynamism more than it helps.

Market Corrects Chinese EV Sector

The intense, subsidy-driven competition in China’s electric vehicle market appears to be entering a new phase. Li Auto, once a standout performer, reported its first quarterly net loss in three years, citing slowing demand and intense sales pressure (WSJ). The reversal for the plug-in hybrid specialist highlights the precariousness of ventures thriving within state-managed industrial ecosystems. As market realities set in, the distinction between sustainable innovation and state-supported production becomes starkly clear.

Investors Reward Big Pharma’s Pipeline

In contrast to the turbulence in emerging tech, capital markets are showing strong confidence in established life-science innovation. Johnson & Johnson’s market valuation is approaching $500 billion, a near-record high, as investors endorse its strategy to offset declining revenues from a key drug with a robust pipeline of new treatments (Bloomberg). This demonstrates a market willing to reward firms that successfully manage innovation cycles and navigate the complex path from research and development to commercial viability.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Dark Matter’s Signature

After nearly a century of searching, a University of Tokyo astrophysicist claims to have found the first direct evidence of dark matter. The study posits that gamma rays emanating from the center of the Milky Way bear the tell-tale signature of dark matter particle annihilation. If verified, this would be a monumental breakthrough, confirming the existence of a substance thought to constitute 27% of the cosmos and opening a new frontier in physics. For decades, dark matter has been a ‘ghost’ in our models of the universe—inferred but never seen. Pinning down its properties is the first step toward understanding how it might be harnessed, a path that has historically led from fundamental science to transformative technologies.

Decontaminationomics

In Italy, a new report reveals the emergence of a robust land-reclamation industry with estimated revenues of €3.5 billion (ANSA). The analysis, presented by the Carabinieri’s environmental unit (Cufaa), reframes environmental clean-up not as a mere regulatory cost but as a dynamic economic sector fostering technological innovation and skilled employment. This underscores a core free-market principle: where problems exist, profitable solutions can arise. Rather than relying solely on state mandates, a burgeoning private industry is now tackling contaminated sites, turning environmental liabilities into economic opportunities. This market-based approach to remediation offers a powerful model for sustainable development across Europe.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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