Good morning, 06:32.

Venture Global’s 20-year SPA with Tokyo Gas for 1 Mtpa of U.S. LNG, inked overnight, is more than another long-dated offtake. It lifts the Louisiana exporter’s new 2025 contract haul to 7.75 Mtpa, equal to 11 % of Japan’s total LNG imports last year, and underscores how Asia’s second-largest buyer is pivoting from Australian and Russian molecules toward sanction-resilient U.S. supply, prized for its destination flexibility. (reuters.com)

For Washington, the deal deepens an energy-trade corridor that already carries a $19 bn surplus; it also hands the White House a geopolitical lever just as Congress weighs curbs on new LNG export permits. If approved projects proceed, U.S. nameplate capacity will surpass Qatar’s by 2028, making every fresh long-term SPA a forward bet on U.S. regulatory stability—and a hedge against renewed Gulf or Russian disruption.

History rhymes: in 1973 Japan raced to lock in Indonesia’s Arun LNG after the first oil shock; five decades later AI-driven power demand and Ukraine-era insecurity are the catalysts. Tokyo’s choice signals that in a fragmenting energy order, liquidity trumps proximity. As the late Zbigniew Brzezinski warned, “Geography remains the chessboard of power.” —The Gist AI Editor

Tech’s Great Decoupling

Geopolitical friction is actively reshaping global innovation. New data reveals that technology research collaboration between US and Chinese entities has plummeted to its lowest level in two decades, a concerning trend for scientific advancement and economic growth (Bloomberg). This decoupling, fueled by national security concerns, risks fragmenting the global tech ecosystem. From our perspective, such state-driven divergence stifles the cross-pollination of ideas that fuels enterprise and delays breakthroughs, creating a less efficient, more uncertain environment for innovators worldwide.

Pacific Energy Pact

In a counter-current to decoupling, a significant energy alliance is solidifying between the US and Japan. American producer Venture Global has inked a 20-year deal to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Tokyo Gas (Bloomberg). This long-term contract underscores a strategic pivot in energy supply chains, as stable, market-based economies strengthen their partnerships. Locking in decades of supply provides critical stability, allowing businesses to plan and invest with greater confidence, a hallmark of functional, open trade relationships.

EV Market Headwinds

Meanwhile, the hyper-competitive electric vehicle sector is showing signs of strain. Chinese automaker Nio saw its shares tumble after issuing a disappointing fourth-quarter outlook, fueling doubts about its path to profitability (Bloomberg). The slide highlights the immense pressure within the EV industry, where even major players are struggling against fierce competition and market dynamics. This serves as a potent reminder that state support does not guarantee market success; ultimately, consumer choice and competitive innovation determine the victors.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

U.S. Municipal Bonds Likely Offer Good Value Opportunities
— Wall Street Journal

Traders Are Flooding Markets With Risky Bets. Robinhood’s CEO Is Their Cult Hero.
— Wall Street Journal

US-China Tension Fuels Decoupling in Tech Research, Study Shows
— Bloomberg

‘Hassett Effect’ May Weigh on U.S. Dollar
— Wall Street Journal

Nio Shares Drop as Weaker Outlook Clouds Push to Be Break-Even
— Bloomberg

Venture Global Signs 20-Year LNG Supply Deal With Tokyo Gas
— Bloomberg

ECB’s Challenge to Dollar Dominance

The European Central Bank is quietly drafting a plan to boost the euro’s international standing, aiming to capitalise on shifting geopolitical sands and what it sees as wavering confidence in US leadership (Politico). The strategy centres on expanding “liquidity lines”—agreements that allow foreign central banks to borrow euros at short notice. This makes the euro a more reliable backstop in a crisis, reducing global dependence on the US Federal Reserve. While the euro’s share of global reserves has held steady at around 20% (versus the dollar’s 58%), this move signals a strategic push for greater European economic sovereignty. It’s a pragmatic step towards a multipolar currency system, fostering healthy competition and insulating Europe from the political currents of others.

Taiwan Sets a 2027 Red Line

Taipei has put a date on its gravest concern, with President William Lai stating that China is “accelerating preparations” for a military takeover and that Taiwan’s army must achieve a “high level of combat readiness” by 2027 (Ansa). This year marks the centenary of China’s People’s Liberation Army and is increasingly cited by Taiwanese and US officials as a potential timeline for an invasion. For Europe, this is not a distant threat. A conflict would sever critical supply chains for advanced semiconductors, throttling the continent’s automotive and digital sectors. The 2027 timeline serves as a stark deadline, forcing an urgent reappraisal of dependencies on authoritarian regimes and the true economic cost of securing a rules-based global order.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Jti, accordo per l’acquisto di 8.000 kg di tabacco italiano nel prossimo triennio
— Il Sole 24 Ore

ECB has new plan to boost Europe’s global influence
— Politico Europe

Five years after Maradona’s death: Tributes, a retrial and inheritance disputes
— El Pais

Mehr als die Hälfte empfinden mehr Stress als früher
— ZDF

Was Sie über die Handball-WM der Frauen wissen müssen
— ZDF

So finden Sie Schutz bei Hochwasser, Feuer und Gasunfall
— ZDF