The UN has slashed next year’s humanitarian appeal to $23-33 billion—barely half of 2025’s request—after donor contributions collapsed to a decade-low $12-15 billion. Aid chief Tom Fletcher warns 250 million people need help, yet only 87 million can be targeted, with Gaza ($4 billion), Sudan and Syria at the top of a brutally triaged list. (reuters.com)

I read this less as a budgeting story than as a balance-sheet verdict on the rules-based order. 2025 saw governments spend $2.7 trillion on defense, but slash life-saving programs by 40 percent. The last comparable funding shock—after the 2008 crisis—was offset within a year; this time geopolitics, not liquidity, drives the retreat, and no QE can fix apathy. (reuters.com)

History suggests vacuum breeds extremism: post-2010 aid cuts in Somalia preceded the 2011 famine and Al-Shabaab’s resurgence. Today’s shortfall risks similar blowback from Gaza to the Sahel, while eroding the UN’s legitimacy in the very conflicts it must police. “Indifference, not hate, is democracy’s deadliest foe,” warns philosopher Yascha Mounk—and the numbers now prove it. (reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Federal Reserve’s Next Move

Global markets are bracing for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this Wednesday, with an anticipated cut already priced in. The critical data point, however, will be the Fed’s “dot plot,” a chart revealing policymakers’ own forecasts for future rates. This will provide the clearest signal on the future cost of borrowing and the dollar’s trajectory, with investors looking for evidence of a sustained easing cycle versus a one-off adjustment (WSJ). Our view: central bank guidance often creates more noise than signal; the real economy will have the final say.

European Power Prices Hit Zero

A powerful demonstration of market forces unfolded in France, where electricity prices briefly tumbled to zero (Bloomberg). The price collapse was not a system failure but a direct result of surging supply from wind and nuclear generators coinciding with unseasonably warm weather, which slashed heating demand. This event underscores the increasing volatility in energy markets as renewable sources, which have near-zero marginal costs, play a larger role. It’s a stark reminder that supply and demand fundamentals remain undefeated.

Corporate Gambit & Crypto’s Reckoning

In the corporate arena, a high-stakes battle for Warner Bros. Discovery is escalating, with Paramount taking its acquisition offer directly to shareholders after the board accepted a rival bid from Netflix (Bloomberg). This move bypasses management, placing the decision directly with the company’s owners. Meanwhile, the aggressive financial strategy of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, is under severe pressure. The company’s stock slide is testing the viability of its leveraged crypto-centric model, revealing the significant risks of such bold financial engineering (FT).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Fed’s Tone, Dot Plot Are Key For Dollar Direction
— Wall Street Journal

Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Tech, Media & Telecom Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Hannah Fry Decodes Spain
— Bloomberg

How the Paramount and Netflix Bids for Warner Bros. Compare
— Bloomberg

French Power Prices Tumble to Zero as Warm Weather Dents Demand
— Bloomberg

German Insolvencies Hit Decade High

Germany is grappling with its most severe wave of corporate bankruptcies since 2014. Projections from credit insurer Creditreform indicate that company insolvencies are expected to reach their highest level in over ten years in 2025. This troubling trend, impacting small and medium-sized enterprises in particular, reflects persistent economic headwinds such as high energy costs, sluggish demand, and tightening credit conditions (Creditreform). Looking ahead, the forecast offers little relief; Creditreform does not anticipate that insolvency figures will stagnate or decrease in 2026. This points to deep-seated structural issues in Europe’s largest economy, challenging its reputation as a bastion of stability and raising concerns about potential ripple effects across the continent’s supply chains.

Contrasting Signals in European Markets

While Germany’s corporate sector shows signs of distress, European energy and debt markets are sending mixed signals. Natural gas prices provided some positive news, with Dutch TTF futures, the European benchmark, closing down 1.45% at €26.87 per megawatt-hour (ANSA). This decline offers a measure of relief for energy-intensive industries and consumers. In the sovereign debt market, however, risk indicators flashed amber. The spread between 10-year Italian government bonds (BTPs) and German Bunds—a key gauge of perceived risk—widened to 70 basis points. Concurrently, the yield on Italy’s 10-year bond increased to 3.56% (ANSA). This divergence highlights investor nervousness about fiscal stability in parts of the Eurozone, even as energy cost pressures appear to be temporarily easing.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Haus der Geschichte: Eröffnung der neuen Dauerausstellung
— ZDF

Europa allana el camino a la creación de centros de deportación de migrantes fuera de la UE
— El Pais

DRC fighting worst cholera outbreak in 25 years — UNICEF
— Deutsche Welle

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

So viele Firmenpleiten wie seit 2014 nicht mehr
— ZDF

Il prezzo del gas chiude in calo sotto i 27 euro megawattora
— Ansa