Russia’s weekend barrage on Ukraine’s Odesa region killed eight dock-workers, torched sunflower-oil tanks and crippled the Mayaky bridge that carries roughly 40 % of Ukraine’s fuel imports westward. Kyiv warns the pounding is designed to sever its access to the Black Sea just as U.S. and Russian envoys shuttle between Miami hotel suites to market a draft peace plan. (reuters.com)

Moscow is gambling that wrecked logistics will twist both markets and diplomats: Pivdennyi handled a fifth of Ukraine’s food-export revenues before the war, and sunflower oil futures spiked 6 % on Friday. Cutting maritime lifelines was the strategy that starved Germany of nitrates in 1917; Zelenskiy fears a 21st-century reprise will cost Ukraine its economy before any treaty ink dries. (reuters.com)

Washington’s dual track—broker talks while Russia escalates—echoes Kissinger’s “bombing for leverage” paradox in Vietnam: negotiations proceed, but the battlefield decides the price. Unless fuel flows are restored, Kyiv will bargain from a position of enforced scarcity. As philosopher Raymond Aron warned, “Peace is impossible when war still pays dividends.” —The Gist AI Editor (reuters.com)

The Battle for Warner Bros.

A corporate struggle for control of Warner Bros. Discovery is revealing the deep entanglement of political power and cultural influence (WSJ). Figures from President Trump’s circle are advising opposing sides in a takeover battle that could reshape a global media empire. Paramount Skydance, backed by Trump ally Larry Ellison, has launched a $108 billion hostile bid, while Netflix has offered $82.7 billion (The Guardian, IRIS). At the heart of the matter is the future of CNN, a frequent target of the president, with Trump stating he will be “involved in that decision” (NYT). Our view: The overt politicization of a media acquisition is a troubling precedent, blurring the lines between regulatory oversight and political retribution, which could chill free expression regardless of the victor.

A Fortress Mentality in Australia

Australia’s Jewish community is living under a state of heightened alert following a deadly antisemitic attack at a Hanukkah celebration in Bondi Beach (NYT, AJC). Even before the massacre, a 316% surge in antisemitic incidents between October 2023 and September 2024 had fostered a pervasive sense of peril (Executive Council of Australian Jewry). This has normalized the presence of armed guards and bollards at synagogues and schools. In response, the Australian government has allocated an additional $32.5 million for security at Jewish community sites and appointed a Special Envoy to combat antisemitism (Prime Minister of Australia). The situation underscores a grim global trend where civic and religious life retreats behind physical barriers in the face of targeted hatred.

Innovation’s Danger Zone

Newly released FAA documents show a SpaceX Starship explosion on January 16 posed a greater risk to commercial flights than initially disclosed (WSJ). The “rapid unscheduled disassembly” of the vehicle over the Caribbean forced several aircraft to divert as debris rained down, though no injuries were reported (Reuters, FAA). The FAA has grounded the program pending a full mishap investigation to identify the root cause, which SpaceX believes was an oxygen/fuel leak. While pushing technological boundaries inherently involves risk, this incident highlights the critical tension between the libertarian drive for permissionless innovation and the limited government’s essential role in ensuring public safety.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Trump Endorses Blakeman for NY Governor After Stefanik Drops Out
— Bloomberg

San Francisco Crippled by Widespread Power Outages on Busy Holiday Shopping Weekend
— Bloomberg

Trump World Is Picking Sides in the Battle for Warner Bros.
— Wall Street Journal

The SpaceX Explosion That Put Flights in Danger
— Wall Street Journal

Long Before Bondi Massacre, Australian Jews Lived With a Sense of Peril
— New York Times Global

U.S. Seizes Second Oil Tanker Near Venezuela
— Wall Street Journal

Germany’s Rent Control Gambit

Berlin is doubling down on price controls. Justice Minister Stefanie Hubig is advancing a legislative package to rein in housing costs, specifically targeting “Indexmieten”—leases pegged to inflation (ZDF). The proposal would cap annual rent hikes on such contracts at 3.5 percent, a direct intervention following recent increases of 6–7 percent that Hubig deemed untenable for many tenants. This move signals a deepening commitment to market regulation over supply-side solutions. While framed as tenant protection, such caps risk disincentivizing new construction and maintenance, potentially shrinking the rental supply over the long term. It’s a classic case of treating the symptom, not the cause, of housing shortages driven by restrictive zoning and building regulations. The ripple effects will likely include a chill on property investment and a more rigid, less dynamic housing market.

Kremlin’s Overture to Paris

Moscow is testing the diplomatic waters with a notable signal to Paris. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed President Putin’s readiness for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, contingent on “mutual political will” (ZDF/RIA). Coming nearly four years into Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, this overture is significant. It suggests Russia may be seeking to cultivate divisions within the Western alliance, probing for a major European leader willing to re-engage. While any dialogue is preferable to none, the context is critical; this is not a precursor to peace but a calculated geopolitical maneuver. Paris must weigh the risks of legitimizing Putin’s position against the potential, however slim, of influencing Moscow’s calculus. The move puts the onus on Macron, testing his diplomatic ambitions and the EU’s united front.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Wie Hubig die Mietexplosion bremsen will
— ZDF

Harnessing the wisdom of the crowds for OECD recession predictions
— CEPR

Indulgence, punishment and family dynamics: Maintaining a healthy relationship with food during the holiday season
— El Pais

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Der Wintersport-Samstag kompakt zusammengefasst
— ZDF

Un tiroteo masivo en Brown, un físico nuclear y la pista de Reddit: fuga y captura de Claudio Neves Valente
— El Pais