Washington’s weekend seizure of the Panama-flagged Centuries — 1.8 million barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude aboard — marks the second “shadow-fleet” tanker taken in a fortnight and signals the White House’s promised “total blockade” is now reality. (reuters.com)

The move collides with a surge of opaque vessels: The Guardian counts 900-1,200 ageing tankers skirting Western sanctions for Russia, Iran and Venezuela, a fleet larger than Britain’s entire merchant marine. (theguardian.com) Al Jazeera reports the US coast-guard is already chasing a third ship, suggesting a game-of-whack-a-mole across three oceans. (aljazeera.com)

History whispers caution: the 1980s “Tanker War” in the Gulf began with similar interdictions and ended driving insurance rates up 400 % and oil prices 50 % higher. Unless financial channels widen for sanctioned producers, today’s crackdown could inject new volatility into an energy market already bracing for 2026 demand outstripping supply by one million barrels a day. In the age of fragmented enforcement and algorithmic trading, every impounded hull is a volatility spike waiting to happen. As political economist Adam Tooze warns, “Energy security is the geopolitics of the everyday.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Geopolitical Tensions Buoy Oil

State action, not market fundamentals, is driving oil prices higher. The Trump administration’s intensifying blockade on Venezuela, including the recent interception of a third tanker, is constricting global supply (Bloomberg). Oil rose Monday, with Brent crude futures climbing 0.8% to $60.93 a barrel, as traders priced in the risk of further disruptions. This intervention creates artificial scarcity, a direct contradiction of free-market principles, with consumers ultimately bearing the cost of geopolitical maneuvering. Venezuela exported around 600,000 barrels per day in November, a volume now under threat (ING).

Smart Money De-Risks

Leading institutional investors are signaling caution, bracing for potential market turmoil. Asset manager Apollo Global Management is actively cutting risk and increasing its cash reserves, positioning itself for dislocations when, as chief executive Marc Rowan noted, “something bad happens” (FT). This strategic shift by a major market participant, which oversees hundreds of billions in assets, serves as a pragmatic, evidence-based indicator of rising economic uncertainty. Such defensive postures often precede periods of heightened volatility, suggesting that sophisticated capital is preparing for a downturn rather than chasing further gains.

Yen’s Path of Least Resistance

The Japanese yen is set to remain weak as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains its dovish stance, viewing underlying inflation as still below its 2% target (WSJ). Despite a recent rate hike, Japan’s real interest rates—the nominal rate minus inflation—remain negative, discouraging investment in the currency. This policy, while beneficial for Japan’s export-oriented industries by making their goods cheaper globally, suppresses the yen’s value and impacts international currency markets. The dynamic underscores how central bank rhetoric continues to hold significant sway over foreign exchange valuations, independent of broader market forces.

Tech Valuations in the Crossfire

Accurately valuing technology stocks is growing more complex amid escalating geopolitical friction. Republican lawmakers are now urging the Pentagon to add more Chinese tech firms, including innovators in AI and smartphones, to a list of companies allegedly affiliated with China’s military (Bloomberg). This pressure to expand the “Section 1260H list” injects significant political risk into the investment landscape. Such government actions disrupt global supply chains and distort capital allocation, creating uncertainty that markets are ill-equipped to price, ultimately harming both innovators and investors.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

CBS News Pulls ‘60 Minutes’ Segment; Correspondent Calls Decision Political
— Wall Street Journal

Yen Likely to Stay Weak Unless BOJ Changes Inflation Rhetoric
— Wall Street Journal

‘He Was Poisoned.’ Toxic Fumes on Planes Blamed for Deaths of Pilots and Crew
— Wall Street Journal

SGMC’s Gomes on Tech Valuations
— Bloomberg

How one PE group’s deals show the risks of firms selling to themselves
— Financial Times

Oil Advances as US Pursues Third Tanker in Venezuela Blockade
— Bloomberg

Gold Hits New Peak on Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Gold has surged to a new record, touching $4,383.76 an ounce as markets solidify bets on US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming year. This move reflects a classic flight to safety, with investors increasingly wary of fiat currency stability amid expectations of looser monetary policy and a weaker dollar. The rally, which has seen gold rise 67% this year, is also fueled by persistent geopolitical tensions and strong central bank purchasing. For Europe, this trend accentuates the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB), which has paused its own rate-cutting cycle, and highlights the continent’s investors seeking non-yielding safe havens. From our vantage point, the ascent of gold isn’t just a market signal; it’s a rational response to the erosion of purchasing power engineered by central banks. (Ansa, Reuters)

Regulatory Walls Distort Crypto Markets

A glaring inefficiency persists in digital asset markets, revealing foundational flaws. The “crypto carry”—a significant and volatile gap between cryptocurrency futures and spot prices—cannot be explained by market fundamentals, according to a new analysis. Researchers argue the distortion is driven by regulatory barriers that prevent arbitrageurs from closing the price gap. This market segmentation allows smaller, highly leveraged traders to create pricing anomalies that would otherwise be corrected in a more open, efficient market. The findings are a stark reminder that heavy-handed regulation, even when well-intentioned, often backfires. By impeding the market’s natural error-correction mechanisms, these rules inadvertently foster the very instability they are meant to prevent, a critical lesson for EU regulators crafting the future of digital finance. (CEPR)

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Epstein-Akten: US-Justiz macht gelöschtes Bild wieder publik
— ZDF

Crypto carry: Market segmentation and price distortions in digital asset markets
— CEPR

One in eight of 14- to 17-year-olds in Great Britain say they have used nicotine pouches
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Hammertor beschert Union den Sieg in Köln
— ZDF

La búsqueda desesperada de una gasolinera en Malí, un país en penumbra
— El Pais