Russian forces fired roughly 500 drones and 40 missiles at Kyiv overnight, killing two and fracturing heat and power grids just hours before President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due in Florida to seek a U.S-brokered cease-fire with Donald Trump. Zelenskyy calls the bombardment “Moscow’s answer to diplomacy,” yet insists the 20-point plan on the table is “90 % ready.” (reuters.com)

The Kremlin’s timing is telling. Missile salvos have averaged 60 a day this month; Saturday’s barrage was eight times that, signaling that Russia still bets on battlefield leverage—even as its GDP shrank 2.9 % in 2025 and sanctions cut LNG ambitions by a quarter. Kyiv, meanwhile, lost 30 % of winter generating capacity in a single night, underscoring the human price of any “peace dividend.” (reuters.com)

I read today’s strikes as a stress-test of Washington’s resolve. If the Mar-a-Lago talks devolve into a bilateral trade-off over land for guarantees, Europe risks becoming an anxious spectator to its own security. History’s pattern—from Minsk II to last year’s grain-corridor collapse—shows that deals signed under fire rarely endure. Deterrence, not desperation, must anchor the next draft. “Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the presence of justice,” reminds philosopher Cornel West. The negotiators would do well to keep that line in view. (apnews.com)

The Gist AI Editor

US Strikes in Nigeria Raise Sovereignty Questions

US missile strikes on Christmas Day targeted supposed ISIS-affiliated camps in Nigeria’s Sokoto state, a move President Trump framed as a defense of Christians. The operation, which AFRICOM stated involved “multiple ISIS terrorists” killed and was conducted at Nigeria’s request, has been met with confusion inside Nigeria (FT, WSJ). Details remain murky, with Nigerian officials confirming a joint operation but analysts questioning the choice of Sokoto, an area more troubled by criminal gangs than jihadist groups, over the extremist heartland in the northeast (Al Arabiya). This unilateral messaging raises concerns about national sovereignty and the strategic coherence of counter-terrorism efforts.

Beijing Hardens Trade Stance

China has revised its foreign trade law, effective March 1, 2026, to more explicitly prioritize national sovereignty and security interests (Bloomberg, Xinhua). The amendments grant Beijing a stronger legal basis for countermeasures against perceived threats and codify support for domestic industries impacted by international trade shifts. This move formalizes an increasingly assertive trade posture, creating a “legal toolkit” to counter foreign restrictions. From a free-trade perspective, embedding national security into commercial law risks politicizing global commerce and inviting reciprocal protectionism, ultimately harming consumers through reduced choice and higher prices.

Argentina’s Milei Secures First Budget Victory

Argentine President Javier Milei’s government has passed its first budget since he took office, a significant step for an administration that has largely governed by decree (WSJ). The Senate approved the 2026 budget with a 46-25 vote, reflecting newfound political capital after recent midterm election successes. The budget aims for a “zero deficit” by eliminating minimum funding thresholds for sectors like education and science. This marks a critical test of Milei’s ability to negotiate and implement his free-market reforms through conventional political channels, moving beyond executive orders.

UK Labour Faces Renewed Brexit Debate

Britain’s largest trade union body is publicly urging the Labour government to reconsider a customs union with the EU to spur economic growth (Politico.eu, The Guardian). The Trades Union Congress argues that closer alignment is vital given uncertain trade relations with the US. This call reopens a significant Brexit fault line for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has maintained that closer EU ties will not cross his established “red lines,” which preclude rejoining the customs union or single market. The pressure from Labour’s traditional union base highlights the persistent tension between economic pragmatism and the political imperatives of the 2016 referendum.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

UK trade unions urge Labour to revisit EU customs union
— Politico.Eu

Argentina’s Milei Wins Budget Vote, Marking a Shift Toward Dealmaking
— Wall Street Journal

She Studied the Health Effects of Wildfires, Until the E.P.A. Cut Her Grant
— New York Times Global

Where Drones Drop Dead and GPS Goes Haywire
— Wall Street Journal

Why bomb Sokoto? Trump’s strikes baffle Nigerians
— Financial Times

An Ounce of Silver Is Now Worth More Than a Barrel of Oil
— Wall Street Journal

Digital Decoupling

A transatlantic regulatory rift is widening. Washington has imposed visa bans on five key European figures, including former EU Commissioner Thierry Breton, who architected the bloc’s Digital Services Act (DSA). US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused the group of orchestrating “extraterritorial censorship” by pressuring American tech platforms to moderate content (Politico), (Le Monde). The move, condemned by Brussels as “coercion and intimidation,” signals a clear US pivot against the EU’s attempt to regulate digital space. The DSA, which can levy fines of up to 6% of global revenue for non-compliance, is viewed in Washington as an assault on free expression. This isn’t merely a trade spat; it’s an escalating conflict over sovereignty and speech in the digital age, with Europe vowing to “respond swiftly and decisively” to defend its regulatory autonomy (Reuters).

Gas Stockpiles Diverge

A divergence in energy preparedness is becoming apparent across the continent. Italy’s natural gas inventories are holding strong above 75% capacity, positioning it as an outlier among major EU economies (Ansa). This contrasts sharply with the broader European situation, where reserves have dipped below 65%, and in Germany, a critical industrial hub, storage has fallen to under 60% (Ansa). The data from Gas Infrastructure Europe highlights differing national strategies in the face of colder weather and increased demand. While Brussels has pursued bloc-wide targets, Italy’s success underscores the potential advantage of national control over critical infrastructure. The widening gap matters for industrial stability and geopolitical leverage, particularly as colder January temperatures are forecast to increase demand.

Accountability Shield

Italy has taken a significant step away from public-sector accountability. The Italian Senate definitively passed a controversial bill shielding public administrators from fiscal oversight with 93 votes in favour and 51 against (Ansa). The new law makes a COVID-era “scudo erariale,” or “liability shield,” a permanent fixture. This reform sharply limits the powers of the Corte dei Conti, Italy’s Court of Auditors, which is tasked with ensuring public funds are used correctly. Critics, including the court’s own magistrates, argue the move will encourage waste and potential corruption by removing a vital check on power (Reuters). From a free-market perspective, reducing such oversight risks inefficient capital allocation and weakens the rule of law, setting a worrying precedent for fiscal discipline within the EU’s third-largest economy.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Deutschlands “Migrationswende” und der Blick nach vorn
— ZDF

4 ways China-US relations could fracture in 2026
— Politico Europe

Régulation du numérique : un nouvel avertissement pour les Européens
— Le monde

Landesweite Angriffe in der Ukraine – Explosionen in Kiew
— ZDF

Heavy Metal Kreuzfahrt
— ZDF

Scorte di gas ancora sopra al 75% in Italia, Europa sotto il 65%
— Ansa