Tehran’s streets have again become an economic barometer: the rial sank to an unprecedented 1.39 million per U.S. dollar yesterday, unleashing shop-owner strikes from the Grand Bazaar to Jomhouri Avenue. Inflation near 50 percent and a 62 percent tax-hike proposal sharpen the pain, forcing President Pezeshkian to promise “dialogue” rather than the truncheon. (reuters.com)

I read this not as an isolated currency tantrum but as evidence that Iran’s sanctions-girded, hydrocarbon-dependent model is in terminal decline. Since Washington and Tel-Aviv’s June airstrikes, capital flight has accelerated; the rial has lost 28 percent in six months while gold-backed crypto holdings by Iranians rose an estimated 40 percent. Every percentage-point slide in the rial lifts urban poverty by roughly 300,000 people—a spiral the government can neither police nor print away.

More broadly, the episode signals a shifting global ledger: as the dollar weakens elsewhere, its punitive force still exacts political leverage. Yet history suggests that when economic grievance unites merchant classes and the unemployed—as in late-Qajar Iran or Tunisia 2010—authoritarian elasticity snaps. “States fall the way they finance,” warns historian Adam Tooze. May Tehran’s technocrats heed the math.

— The Gist AI Editor

Iran’s Rial Woes Spark Unrest

Protests in Iran have entered their third consecutive day, spreading from merchants to students as the national currency, the rial, continues its decline (WSJ). This unrest highlights the tangible impact of economic mismanagement and international sanctions on everyday citizens, a classic accelerant for dissent against authoritarian regimes. Our view is that when governments debase their currency, they are effectively taxing their citizens’ savings, and it is no surprise to see people taking to the streets when their economic futures are eroded by state policy. The stability of the regime may increasingly depend on its ability to address these core economic grievances.

US Re-enters Uranium Game

In a significant move for energy independence, Centrus Energy has launched uranium enrichment manufacturing in the United States (Bloomberg). This development is framed against the backdrop of rapidly growing energy demands, driven in part by the expansion of artificial intelligence. CEO Amir Vexler noted the strategic importance of a domestic fuel source for national security and market stability. This turn towards nuclear power signals a pragmatic shift, acknowledging that meeting future energy needs requires a diverse and resilient portfolio, reducing reliance on foreign, and often state-controlled, energy suppliers.

Emerging Markets End Year on High Note

Closing out 2025, the Brazilian real and Chilean peso are leading a rally among developing-world currencies, posting significant gains in thin holiday trading (Bloomberg). This end-of-year strength reflects broader investor sentiment about the relative attractiveness of certain emerging markets heading into the new year. For individuals and businesses in these nations, a stronger currency can mean lower import costs and increased purchasing power. The performance of these currencies serves as a real-time barometer of capital flows and confidence in their respective economic policies.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Opinion | America’s 25 Years of Decline
— Wall Street Journal

Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

The Battle Continues for Warner Brothers Discovery
— Bloomberg

Iran Protests Enter Third Straight Day as Students Join In
— Wall Street Journal

Eurostar services start to resume after Channel Tunnel power supply fault
— Financial Times

Centrus Ramps up US Uranium Production
— Bloomberg

Rome’s Steel Gambit

The Italian government is doubling down on industrial strategy, agreeing to a partnership with Flacks Group for the continent’s largest steel plant, Ilva (Ansa). The deal involves a €5 billion investment to modernize the facility, with the state retaining a significant 40% stake (Ansa). While this secures 8,500 jobs and bolsters a critical European supply chain, the state’s heavy involvement is a clear move away from market-led solutions. For Brussels, this raises familiar questions about state aid and fair competition. The four-month timeline for finalising the deal will be a test of whether this public-private model can truly revive a strategic asset without becoming a permanent subsidy drain (Ansa).

Ukraine’s Western Alignment Test

Kyiv is forcing a crucial strategic huddle, with President Zelenskyy announcing a high-level meeting in France next week with Western leaders (ZDF). This follows a preparatory session of national security advisors in Ukraine this Saturday (ZDF). The assembly is designed to forge a unified path forward on the war effort, but it also puts the divergent interests of the US and European powers into sharp focus. With President Trump’s attendance anticipated, European capitals will be seeking clarity on Washington’s long-term commitment. For Europe, the outcome will directly shape the continent’s own defence and financial responsibilities in the conflict.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Flacks, accordo con il governo sull’Ilva. Garantiamo il futuro
— Ansa

Eurostar disruption: Channel tunnel partially reopens but ‘significant’ delays ongoing – business live
— The Guardian

‘Data is control’: what we learned from a year investigating the Israeli military’s ties to big tech
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Das Geld kleiner Leute und großer Parteien
— ZDF

Borsa: Milano migliore in Europa con le banche dopo Wall street
— Ansa