Iran’s currency-driven revolt has entered a lethal phase: at least seven people are dead and dozens wounded as protests over 40 % inflation and a rial that has lost 56 % of its value in six months spread from Tehran to Azna, Lordegan and Fuladshahr.(reuters.com)

This is not a local tremor. Iran sits on 10 % of global oil reserves; every crack in its political façade reverberates through Brent futures already jittery below $65. The regime’s dilemma rhymes with 1978: repression risks further radicalising peripheral ethnic minorities while concessions embolden a middle-class now tasting collective power.(aljazeera.com)

From Lagos to La Paz, inflation has become the spark that ideology once was. When the social contract is indexed to basic staples, macro mismanagement mutates into an existential threat quicker than any foreign sanction. As economist Branko Milanović warns, “inequality tolerated in boom years becomes intolerable when the pie stops growing.” Signpost taken. — The Gist AI Editor

Geopolitical Jitters and Oil Outlook

A sense of caution is rippling through commodity markets to begin the year. Gold prices ticked upward as Middle East tensions remain fragile, reinforcing the metal’s role as a haven for investors during times of uncertainty (WSJ). Adding to the geopolitical strain, Russia has reportedly asked the U.S. to cease its pursuit of a Russian oil tanker in the Atlantic, a move that underscores the persistent friction between the two powers (The Straits Times). Despite these risks, the outlook for oil remains anchored, with analysts at Phillip Nova forecasting a stable price range of $55 to $65 per barrel for the first quarter, suggesting supply fundamentals are currently outweighing political drama (WSJ).

State Intervention’s Mixed Results

Governments are relearning the limits of their economic influence. Indonesia announced it will pull back $4.5 billion (75 trillion rupiah) in planned capital placements to state-owned banks, citing the program’s “limited impact” on boosting private-sector lending—a tacit acknowledgment of market realities over state direction (Bloomberg). Meanwhile, in a positive turn for transatlantic commerce, the U.S. is stepping back from proposed tariffs on Italian pasta, which could have reached as high as 92% (FT). Our take: Jakarta’s pivot is a pragmatic admission of policy failure, while Washington’s tariff retreat offers a glimmer of hope for resolving trade disputes through negotiation rather than punitive measures.

Emerging Markets Show Early Strength

The new year kicked off with a surge in Emerging Asian stocks, primarily driven by a robust tech sector and a vow from South Korea to maintain currency stability (Bloomberg). This optimism is mirrored in India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategy to energize the domestic consumer base is yielding positive results, providing a powerful internal engine for growth (WSJ). This highlights a crucial dynamic: while geopolitical headlines may grab attention, the real story for long-term growth often lies in the burgeoning consumer power and innovation within emerging economies.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Gold Rises Amid Geopolitical Risks
— Wall Street Journal

Modi Taps India’s Consumer Power in Trade Fight With Trump
— Wall Street Journal

Thursday assorted links
— Marginalrevolution

Oil Prices Seen Subdued; $55/bbl-$65/bbl Range Likely in 1Q
— Wall Street Journal

US retreats from Trump’s Italian pasta tariffs
— Financial Times

Russia asks US to stop pursuit of fleeing oil tanker, NY Times reports
— The Straits Times

Italian Market Whiplash

The new year in Italy brings a mix of state-driven price hikes and policy stumbles, creating headwinds for consumers and businesses alike. As of January 1, a raft of increases has taken effect, including an inflation-adjusted rise in motorway tolls of 1.5% on most of the network (Ansa). This move extracts further value from the productive economy. Simultaneously, the government’s annual “Milleproroghe” decree, a legislative vehicle for extending various deadlines, failed to include the promised renewal of hiring bonuses for young people and women (Ansa). While officials blame “technical reasons” and promise a fix, the lapse injects damaging uncertainty into the labour market, undermining firms’ ability to plan. Such fiscal clumsiness dampens incentives for job creation.

The WFH Gender Paradox

A fascinating Dutch study suggests the work-from-home (WFH) revolution may be upending gender norms in unexpected ways. Research from the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) indicates a broad consensus that a partner working from home should handle household chores. Critically, however, this expectation is significantly stronger when the remote worker is a man. This finding complicates the simple narrative that remote work is an automatic win for female professionals seeking better work-life balance. Instead, it hints at a deeper recalibration of the domestic social contract, potentially creating new pressures. It’s a clear example of how market-driven innovation in work arrangements can produce complex and unforeseen social ripple effects (CEPR).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Britain’s troubled Holocaust memorial
— Politico Europe

Iran: Tote bei Protesten gegen Inflation und Staatsführung
— ZDF

A vignette study of work from home and attitudes to household work
— CEPR

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

“Sehr gut, aber nicht ganz perfekt”
— ZDF

Maduro, ‘pronti a discutere con Usa di droga, petrolio e affari’
— Ansa