Paris’ “Coalition of the Willing” summit moved the war’s centre of gravity from the battlefield to the balance-sheet. A leaked draft pledges “politically and legally binding” guarantees—up to and including military intervention—should Russia strike again (reuters.com). The text is now endorsed in Brussels, London and Washington, and even AP notes Kyiv’s allies are wrangling only over timing, not intent (apnews.com).

Those promises carry steep, long-tail costs. European NATO members already boosted real defence outlays 19.4 % last year while Washington still bankrolls 64 % of the alliance’s budget (reuters.com). Germany will borrow €378 bn to hit 3.5 % of GDP by 2029, bending its vaunted debt brake (reuters.com). With voters chafing under post-pandemic austerity, every euro for guns is a euro not spent on schools or energy subsidies.

Yet deterrence is cheaper than disrupted gas flows: futures still trade well above their 2021 average, a silent tax on households. Europe is relearning that security guarantees and affordable energy are the same equation. As NATO chief Mark Rutte warns, “We need a quantum leap—otherwise the bill will be even higher later.” (reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

US Power Grid Falters in AI Race

A stark warning from Goldman Sachs suggests America’s innovation edge is threatened by its aging infrastructure. According to the bank, surging power demand from artificial intelligence data centers could leave most US grids without critical spare capacity by 2030 (Bloomberg). This energy bottleneck risks throttling the AI boom domestically and effectively ceding an advantage to China, whose centralized planning has reportedly resulted in a more robust energy infrastructure. Our view: This is a critical failure of public policy, where years of regulatory hurdles and underinvestment now directly endanger private sector innovation and geopolitical competitiveness. Freeing the energy sector to build out capacity is no longer just an economic issue, but a national security imperative.

Markets Pivot to Venezuelan Oil

Geopolitical shifts are reshaping energy flows as US oil refiners along the Gulf Coast prepare for a potential resurgence of Venezuelan crude (FT). These complex facilities were originally designed to process the heavy, sour crude that Venezuela produces in abundance. Following years of sanctions and disruptions that forced refiners to seek more costly alternatives from Canada and the Middle East, the market is quickly adapting to new realities. This pragmatic adjustment by private industry highlights the efficiency of markets in optimizing supply chains—a flexibility that government policy often lacks—and could re-draw key routes on the global energy map, potentially diverting supplies previously destined for China.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Czech Government Seeks Savings After Budget Gap Hit $14 Billion
— Bloomberg

Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Warner Bros. Takeover Battle Intensifies
— Bloomberg

AIG Stock Sinks on CEO’s Surprise Plan to Step Down
— Wall Street Journal

Ford Sales Rise on Increased Demand for Lower-Priced Trucks
— Wall Street Journal

Goldman Sachs Warns US Grids Face Power Crunch by 2030
— Bloomberg

West Mulls “Legally Binding” Guarantees for Kyiv

A significant geopolitical pivot is underway as Europe and the U.S. draft “legally binding” security guarantees for Ukraine, intended to formalise support in any future peace settlement (Politico). This marks a potential shift from ad-hoc military aid to a structured, long-term security framework. A draft statement prepared for a summit in Paris outlines commitments that could include military, intelligence, and logistical support, as well as further sanctions against Russia, should hostilities resume (Reuters). The language aims to cement U.S. commitments alongside European allies, creating a coordinated bulwark against future aggression (The Hindu). This comes as President Trump denies Russian claims that Ukraine attacked Putin’s residence, underscoring the tense information war running parallel to diplomatic maneuvers (ZDF).

German Coalition Experiment Collapses

In Germany, the first-of-its-kind state-level coalition between the Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) has collapsed in Brandenburg after just over a year (ZDF). Premier Dietmar Woidke (SPD) ended the alliance, citing a loss of trust and internal strife within the BSW, a party blending left-wing economics with conservative social stances (AFP). The rupture forces the SPD to seek a new majority, likely with the Christian Democrats (CDU), or govern as a minority. This failure serves as a crucial test case for the governability of new populist movements and highlights political fragmentation in the EU’s largest economy. The resulting instability adds to market jitters, reflected in a 2.4% rise in European natural gas prices to €28.07 per megawatt-hour (Ansa).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

SPD in Brandenburg kündigt Koalition mit BSW auf
— ZDF

Inflation: Warum sich das “neue Normal” teuer anfühlt
— ZDF

Rise and shine with the 10 best sunrise alarm clocks in the UK, tried and tested
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Fonti Mimit, 2,75 miliardi per Transizione 5.0, coprono larga parte investimenti
— Ansa

Il prezzo del gas chiude in rialzo a 28,07 euro
— Ansa