The Global Overview
The Coming Copper Shock
A severe copper shortage threatens to become a systemic risk to the global economy, driven by surging demand from artificial intelligence and defense sectors (Bloomberg). S&P Global projects a colossal deficit of 10 million tonnes by 2040, an amount equivalent to nearly one-third of current global consumption (FT). This supply-demand imbalance poses a direct threat to green energy transitions and the expansion of AI infrastructure, as producers struggle to increase output. The market is signaling a future where essential components for everything from data centers to munitions become significantly more scarce and expensive.
Post-Maduro Political Tremors
The ouster of Venezuela’s Maduro government is sending geopolitical shockwaves across the globe. Cuba, heavily reliant on subsidized Venezuelan oil, is now teetering on the edge of economic collapse, raising questions about the stability of its own regime (WSJ). Further afield, Beijing is growing anxious as the US action in Venezuela disrupts access to a key source of discounted crude for Chinese producers. This has ignited fears in China that Washington may apply similar pressure to Iran, another critical energy supplier, tightening the squeeze on its resource-dependent economy (FT).
Washington’s New Watchdogs
In a notable development, the White House is considering Democratic nominees for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the powerful body regulating US derivatives markets (Bloomberg). This would mark the first appointment of Democrats to a major Wall Street regulator under the second Trump administration. The move suggests a potential bipartisan approach to financial oversight, a space where policy can have profound impacts on market freedom and stability. The composition of the CFTC will be a key indicator of the administration’s stance on everything from crypto assets to carbon markets.
Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.
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