Russia’s overnight barrage on January 9—hundreds of Shahed drones, 36 missiles and, critically, the second recorded launch of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile—killed four in Kyiv and struck infrastructure near Lviv, 70 km from NATO territory. Ukrainian air-defence shot down 244 airborne targets, yet 34 still penetrated; 600,000 residents lost heat in sub-zero temperatures. (reuters.com)

Moscow frames the strike as retaliation for an unverified drone attack on Putin’s residence, but the vector is strategic coercion: flaunt a Mach-10 system that can reach Berlin in six minutes, remind allies debating troop deployments that escalation ladders still run through the Kremlin. History rhymes—just as the 1983 SS-20 deployments fractured NATO consensus, today’s Oreshnik tests Western cohesion while talks on a cease-fire stall.

The West’s response will signal whether deterrence now hinges on air-defence stockpiles or on political resolve. As historian Anne Applebaum warns, “autocracy feeds on ambiguity; clarity is democracy’s shield.” (reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Mining Mega-Merger Eyed

Rio Tinto and Glencore have rekindled talks for a potential blockbuster merger that would forge the world’s largest mining entity, with a combined value north of $260 billion (£193bn) (The Guardian). The move is largely propelled by a global surge in demand for copper, a critical component in the energy transition, which recently hit a record price of $13,387 a tonne (Daily Business). A successful deal would establish a dominant force in copper production. However, the market has reacted with some caution; Rio’s Australian-listed shares dipped as much as 7% following the news, reflecting investor concerns over potential overpayment and the complexities of integrating Glencore’s significant coal assets, which Rio divested from in 2018 (Reuters, Evening Wrap). Rio has until February 5 to declare its intentions under UK takeover regulations (The Guardian).

Streaming Sector Shake-Up

Netflix shares have been volatile amid speculation of an acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, a deal valued at approximately $82.7 billion (MarketBeat). The potential merger has caused Netflix’s stock to fall by about 27% in under three months as investors weigh the strategic benefits against the considerable debt required to finance the deal (TradeAlgo). While Warner Bros. Discovery’s board has expressed its preference for the Netflix offer over a competing all-cash bid from Paramount Skydance, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 12-month price target for Netflix from $130 to $112, citing regulatory hurdles and uncertainties surrounding the combined entity’s future operations (Investing.com).

Geopolitical & Economic Briefs

President Trump prematurely released figures from the December jobs report on social media, approximately 12 hours before their official publication (Bloomberg). The data showed the private sector added 654,000 jobs. This unusual breach of protocol has drawn scrutiny, particularly as the U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing, with 584,000 jobs added in 2025, a significant drop from the 2 million created in 2024 (The Guardian). In Syria, the U.S. has welcomed a temporary ceasefire in Aleppo between the Syrian army and Kurdish-led SDF forces, hoping it will lead to broader stability (Yeni Safak). Meanwhile, oil markets are pricing in the prospect of increased Venezuelan supply following U.S. intervention, though experts caution that ramping up production from the current 800,000 barrels a day will require billions in investment and several years to overcome infrastructural decay (Reuters, Atlantic Council).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

U.S. Pushes to Defuse Worsening Violence in Syria’s Aleppo
— Wall Street Journal

Dollar Could Stay Steady For Now, More Likely to Fall Than Rise
— Wall Street Journal

Netflix Stock Is Pricey Even After Warner Bros.-Induced Selloff
— Bloomberg

Oil Futures on Track for Weekly Gains
— Wall Street Journal

Trump Posted Unpublished Jobs Data Early
— Bloomberg

Drifting Tanker Reveals Major Hurdle for Trump Plan to Revive Venezuela’s Oil
— Bloomberg

EU-Mercosur Finally Crosses the Line

After a quarter-century of negotiations, the EU-Mercosur trade deal received member state approval on Friday. My read is that this is a significant, if long-overdue, victory for open trade, set to eliminate >90 percent of tariffs on EU exports to the South American bloc (Politico). For Europe’s industrial and automotive sectors, this opens up a substantial market. However, the deal remains a bitter pill for agricultural producers, particularly in France, who fear competition from South American beef and ethanol. The next hurdle is the European Parliament, where ratification is not guaranteed. I’m watching to see if protectionist agricultural interests can muster the votes to derail one of the largest free trade agreements in history.

Germany’s Political Tremors

As Europe’s economic engine, Germany’s political stability is a market-moving factor. The start to the ’26 super-election year is proving rocky for the main opposition party, the Christian Democrats (CDU) (ZDF). Leader Friedrich Merz is facing internal party challenges and had to cancel a key policy meeting, signaling a lack of momentum just as his party needs to project strength. Simultaneously, the Left party (Die Linke) is attempting to capitalize on social discontent, recalibrating its strategy after a successful 2025 by adopting what it calls “good populism” to counter the AfD (ZDF). These political shifts are critical; instability or a leftward lurch in Germany could have profound implications for fiscal discipline and economic policy across the Eurozone.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Schweiz nimmt Abschied von 40 Opfern
— ZDF

EU-Mercosur mega trade deal: The winners and losers
— Politico Europe

Anonymous painting bought at auction on ‘hunch’ identified as two-in-one Rubens
— The Guardian

Das Jahr der Wahrheit für Friedrich Merz
— ZDF

“Guter Populismus” und ein altes Problem
— ZDF

Psicoterapeuta uccisa nell’Aretino, ergastolo per l’amico di famiglia
— Ansa