China and Canada used Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first Beijing visit to swap pain points for possibilities: Ottawa cuts its tariff on Chinese EVs from 100 % to 6.1 % (initial quota 49 000 cars), while Beijing slashes canola-seed duties from 84 % to 15 %. The quid-pro-quo unlocks an estimated C$3 bn in new farm exports and re-opens a market frozen since the Huawei-related arrests of 2018. (apnews.com)

The deal is less about soybeans and sedans than about strategic hedging. Carney is signalling that a G-7 middle power will not let a tariff-happy White House dictate every supply chain; Xi gains a North-American foothold as Trump’s “America First” shocks allies. If even security-conscious Canada can compartmentalise with China, others may follow—reshaping the US-centred trade lattice into a looser, transactional web. (theguardian.com)

History reminds us that commercial détente often precedes political thaw—think Nixon’s 1972 grain sales to the USSR. Yet mistrust endures over espionage and Arctic routes. As the economist Dani Rodrik warns, “Globalisation works best when it is kept on a tight leash.” Balancing openness with guardrails is now Canada’s—and the world’s—real test.

The Gist AI Editor

Energy Markets Jolted by Intervention and Volatility

Washington is advancing a novel plan to compel technology firms to directly fund new power plants, addressing the massive electricity demand from AI data centers (Bloomberg). The proposal involves an emergency auction where tech giants would bid on 15-year contracts, effectively underwriting an estimated $15 billion in new energy generation to prevent surging utility bills for households (Bloomberg). This muscular approach to market engineering contrasts with severe price volatility in Europe, where the Dutch TTF—a key natural gas benchmark—is on track for a weekly gain of nearly 30% amid a cold snap, signaling renewed energy fragility for the continent (WSJ).

Geopolitical Hedging Reshapes Trade

In a significant diplomatic pivot, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a “strategic partnership” during a state visit to Beijing (WSJ). The agreement aims to lower trade barriers, a clear move by Ottawa to diversify its economic relationships and mitigate exposure to volatile U.S. trade policy (Reuters). Further asserting an independent foreign policy, Carney pointedly warned the Trump administration to “back off” on its stated interest in Greenland, emphasizing that its future is a matter for Greenland and Denmark alone (Politico.Eu). This underscores a broader trend of middle powers actively hedging against superpower unpredictability.

White House Targets Healthcare Premiums

President Trump is pressing Republican lawmakers to advance a new healthcare plan designed to preempt looming insurance premium hikes (Bloomberg). The initiative seeks to shift government subsidies away from insurance companies and directly to consumers, a move pitched as a direct relief mechanism for millions of Americans facing higher costs or potential loss of coverage. Our take: while the focus on consumer-side subsidies aligns with market principles, the plan’s success will depend entirely on complex legislative negotiations and its real-world impact on insurer participation and overall market stability.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

China and Canada Edge Closer With Progress on Trade
— Wall Street Journal

Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Trump Presses GOP to Move Health Plan as Premium Hikes Loom
— Bloomberg

European Gas Price Jumps on Cold Snap, Tight Inventories
— Wall Street Journal

Blue Owl to Snap Up Stakes From Fund Backers Looking to Cash Out
— Bloomberg

US green energy growth is proving hard to kill
— Financial Times

Gas Prices Spike

European natural gas futures are signaling fresh volatility, closing a turbulent week. Futures for Title Transfer Facility (TTF)—the continental benchmark—surged 9% today to €36.15 per megawatt-hour, capping a 25% gain for the week (Ansa). Traders are citing a ‘perfect storm’ of colder weather forecasts boosting heating demand against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical jitters. While prices remain far below their 2022 crisis peaks, this is the most significant weekly jump in over two years. The move underscores the European market’s continued fragility and sensitivity to supply-and-demand shocks, a structural risk I’ve been tracking. The era of cheap, stable energy is definitively over; fiscal and business planning must adapt to this new reality of persistent price risk.

German Inflation Eases

Germany, the Eurozone’s economic engine, reported a surprising dip in inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.8% year-over-year in December, falling below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target for the first time in months (ZDF). The drop was driven primarily by a 1.3% annual decline in energy costs. However, this headline figure masks a divergence: despite cheaper wholesale energy, many German households will likely face higher heating bills due to increased consumption during the cold snap. This data complicates the ECB’s calculus, balancing a seemingly cooling inflation picture against underlying pressures and volatile energy inputs. It’s a reminder that macroeconomic data rarely tells the whole story for household and business finances.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Proteste in Iran: Hinrichtungen offenbar ausgesetzt
— ZDF

Günstige Energie drückt Preise – Heizkosten steigen dennoch
— ZDF

Controversial US study on hepatitis B vaccines in Africa is cancelled
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Da Morandi a Bertè, tanti artisti per l’omaggio a Vanoni da Fazio
— Ansa

Rally del gas in Europa, future +9% a 36 euro
— Ansa