Oil’s 4.2 % slide to $63.55 / bbl after Washington dialed back threats against Iran is more than a knee-jerk market retrace; it reveals how geopolitical signalling still trumps OPEC+ cuts and tepid demand in setting price floors. Brent has now erased the entire $3 risk-premium accumulated since protests flared in Tehran, mirroring the 2019 drone-strike unwinding when prices round-tripped within 72 hours. (ft.com)

Yet the White House’s restraint is tactical, not structural. New sanctions and a 25 % “Iran-partner” tariff keep supply chains on edge, while Gulf allies privately warn a strike would torch fragile growth from Cairo to Doha. The IMF estimates every sustained $10 spike shaves 0.3 pp from global GDP; Thursday’s dip therefore buys policymakers a slim cushion—but only until the next tweet. (apnews.com)

We should read this reprieve as a symptom of an oil market caught between decarbonisation headwinds and a resurgent mercantilism: volatility, not direction, is the new constant. As energy historian Daniel Yergin reminds us, “crude still trades on fear as much as fundamentals.” (The New Map, 2020).

— The Gist AI Editor

Geopolitical Tremors

Global markets are navigating a landscape shaped by direct state action and rising tension. In Tokyo, the yen strengthened after Japanese Finance Minister Katayama signaled the government is prepared to counter any “excessive yen movements,” a clear warning of potential currency market intervention (WSJ). Simultaneously, geopolitical risks are repricing, with analysis suggesting Iran may need to abandon its long-standing “delay, deflect, deny” playbook on its nuclear program in the face of a more assertive U.S. posture (Politico.Eu), a development with significant implications for oil markets.

Washington’s Energy Mandate

The Trump administration is set to propose a significant intervention in the energy sector, planning for major technology companies to directly fund the construction of new power plants (WSJ). The proposal, to be facilitated through an “emergency auction” within the largest U.S. power market, aims to address the surging electricity demand from data centers and AI. Our perspective: This move signals a shift toward a form of industrial policy where the government mandates that high-growth sectors underwrite the infrastructure they require, a departure from market-led development.

The China Paradox

The complex U.S.-China relationship continues to present a dual reality for international business. While Washington’s strategic focus sharpens, highlighted by discussions around Greenland as a counter to China’s influence, skepticism about the effectiveness of U.S. deterrence is noted in security forums (Bloomberg). In contrast, commercial ties persist in key sectors. Chinese biopharmaceutical firm Akeso remains confident its cancer drug will secure approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), underscoring ongoing interdependence in science and health innovation (Bloomberg).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Yen Strengthens After Warning From Japan’s Finance Minister
— Wall Street Journal

Trump to Push Plan for Tech Companies to Fund New Power Plants
— Wall Street Journal

RFK Jr.’s Health Department Quietly Removes Webpages Saying Cellphones Aren’t Dangerous
— Wall Street Journal

US Faces Skepticism Over Deterring China as Trump Eyes Greenland
— Bloomberg

Akeso Confident of Cancer Drug’s FDA Approval Odds
— Bloomberg

With the Power Out, Kyiv’s Residents Confront Cold as a Weapon of War
— Bloomberg

EU-Mercosur on the Brink

The EU-Mercosur trade deal, a pact that would create a market of 780 million people, is facing potential collapse. Spanish center-right lawmakers, once firm supporters, are now wavering under intense pressure from domestic farming lobbies (Politico). This pivot within the European People’s Party is critical; without their backing, the agreement, which has been two decades in the making, is likely dead. The capitulation to protectionist interests threatens to scupper billions in potential trade, sacrificing long-term consumer benefits and geopolitical influence for short-term political expediency. It’s a classic case of concentrated benefits for a vocal minority outweighing diffuse gains for the silent majority. The ripple effects would embolden anti-trade sentiment across the bloc and signal a retreat from open markets.

Greece’s Feta Fiasco

A sheep pox epidemic is tearing through Greece, and Athens’ response is crippling a signature industry. The government is opting for mass culls over free vaccines offered by the EU, a policy rooted in vaccine skepticism (Politico). Since the outbreak began in 2024, authorities have already culled over 100,000 animals. This isn’t just an animal welfare issue; it’s a direct threat to the production of feta cheese, a key export. The refusal of a scientifically sound solution—vaccination—in favor of a costly and destructive alternative highlights the tangible economic damage that can be inflicted by anti-science dogma. This self-imposed crisis will likely lead to supply shortages, price hikes for consumers, and lasting damage to the reputation of Greek agricultural exports.

Italy’s Independent Bookstores Signal Distress

A paradox is unfolding in Italy’s independent bookstores: sales of used books are expanding, yet revenues are falling. While 31.7% of these stores strengthened their used book services in 2025, overall business confidence has weakened, with revenues far from the 2021-2022 highs (Ansa). This trend suggests consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, seeking value in second-hand goods as purchasing power stagnates. For small businesses, it’s a double-edged sword: the used market attracts footfall (a reason cited by 38.6% of owners), but the lower margins offer little financial relief. It’s a micro-indicator of broader macroeconomic malaise and a challenging environment for small-scale entrepreneurs.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Proteste in Iran: Hinrichtungen offenbar ausgesetzt
— ZDF

Ucraina, il segnale dei ‘vannacciani’. E Salvini punta sulla sicurezza
— Ansa

Cresce la vendita dei libri usati in librerie indipendenti ma scendono ricavi
— Ansa

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Debatte bei “Lanz”: Wie sinnvoll sind weniger Bundesländer?
— ZDF

Vanzina: Sordi imitava gli italiani e gli italiani imitavano lui
— Ansa