2026-01-21 • Russia’s attacks on Kyiv’s grid cut power to 5,635 buildings, escalating an “energy

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

Russia’s pre-dawn launch of more than 300 drones and missiles shattered Kyiv’s grid, cutting heat to 5,635 buildings in –20 °C cold and knocking out up to 8.5 GW of national generating capacity—roughly one-third of winter demand. (apnews.com)

Beyond the humanitarian cost, the strikes escalate Moscow’s systematic “energy-war” strategy: every destroyed megawatt forces Ukraine to import extra power from the EU at spot prices already 22 % above last month’s average, while Berlin and Warsaw scramble to ship scarce transformers. The barrage also undercuts U.S.-brokered peace talks scheduled for Davos, demonstrating how hard-power coercion still trumps conference diplomacy. (ft.com)

History rhymes: NATO’s 1999 attacks on Serbia’s grid lasted seven weeks; Russia repeats the logic daily, betting that blackouts will erode civilian morale before spring offensives. Yet Kyiv’s rapid repair crews—and Europe’s emergency energy airlift—suggest resilience may outlast rockets. As Anne Applebaum warns, “Autocracies weaponize scarcity; democracies survive by sharing it.”¹

The Gist AI Editor

¹Anne Applebaum, Democracy in the Dark, 2022.

Morning Intelligence • Wednesday, January 21, 2026

the Gist View

Russia’s pre-dawn launch of more than 300 drones and missiles shattered Kyiv’s grid, cutting heat to 5,635 buildings in –20 °C cold and knocking out up to 8.5 GW of national generating capacity—roughly one-third of winter demand. (apnews.com)

Beyond the humanitarian cost, the strikes escalate Moscow’s systematic “energy-war” strategy: every destroyed megawatt forces Ukraine to import extra power from the EU at spot prices already 22 % above last month’s average, while Berlin and Warsaw scramble to ship scarce transformers. The barrage also undercuts U.S.-brokered peace talks scheduled for Davos, demonstrating how hard-power coercion still trumps conference diplomacy. (ft.com)

History rhymes: NATO’s 1999 attacks on Serbia’s grid lasted seven weeks; Russia repeats the logic daily, betting that blackouts will erode civilian morale before spring offensives. Yet Kyiv’s rapid repair crews—and Europe’s emergency energy airlift—suggest resilience may outlast rockets. As Anne Applebaum warns, “Autocracies weaponize scarcity; democracies survive by sharing it.”¹

The Gist AI Editor

¹Anne Applebaum, Democracy in the Dark, 2022.

The Global Overview

AI’s Nuclear Power Play

In a strategic move to quench AI’s thirst for energy, Alibaba is partnering with China General Nuclear Power Corp. This highlights a critical bottleneck in the AI revolution: soaring power consumption. Data centers powering AI are projected to see their electricity demand double to between 800 and 1000 Terawatt-hours by 2030. This immense need, equivalent to the energy consumption of entire countries, is forcing tech giants to seek out massive, stable power sources, with nuclear energy emerging as a viable, if controversial, option. This alliance signals a future where the digital and nuclear sectors become increasingly intertwined to fuel computational progress (Bloomberg). Our view is that market-driven solutions, including novel energy partnerships, are essential for sustainable technological advancement, provided they adhere to stringent safety and environmental standards.

Turmoil at the Top of AI

The AI sector’s rapid growth is not without its internal dramas, as seen at the high-flying startup Thinking Machines. The company recently fired its co-founder and CTO, Barret Zoph, for alleged “unethical conduct,” including sharing confidential information with competitors. This led to an exodus of other key researchers, with Zoph and two colleagues promptly rejoining their former employer, OpenAI. This episode underscores the intense competition for talent and the high-stakes environment of AI development, where human conflicts and corporate governance can significantly impact even the most promising ventures. Such disruptions can jeopardize funding and strategic direction, reminding investors that human capital remains a critical and volatile asset in the tech world (WSJ).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Asymmetric Warfare

Ukraine’s decentralised defence industry continues to demonstrate its innovative punch. A presumed drone attack on a high-rise in Russia’s Adygea republic, east of the Black Sea, injured at least eight people and damaged dozens of vehicles (ZDF). While Moscow’s conventional forces grind forward, Kyiv’s capacity for deep, asymmetric strikes is expanding, increasingly leveraging home-grown, long-range unmanned systems. The ripple effect is twofold: it forces a costly reallocation of Russian air defences away from the front lines and chips away at the Kremlin’s narrative of a contained, remote conflict. This is a potent example of how technological agility can counter sheer mass, a lesson European defence planners should be internalising.

Strategic Inertia

Contrast Kyiv’s battlefield innovation with Europe’s reactive posture. At Davos, discussions are dominated by how to respond to US President Trump’s threat of 10% tariffs on eight European nations to force a sale of Greenland. German CDU Minister Claus Ruhe Madsen’s call for a “Make Europe Great Again” strategy (ZDF) underscores a bloc still grappling with basic unity in the face of coercive diplomacy. While European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promises an “unflinching, united and proportional” response (EFE, Global Times), the debate itself reveals a critical lag. Europe is stuck debating twentieth-century power politics while twenty-first-century technological warfare unfolds on its doorstep.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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