Abu Dhabi hosts the first-ever U.S.–Ukraine–Russia trilateral since 2022, an extraordinary pivot engineered by Trump envoys after Putin’s midnight Kremlin session and Zelenskyy’s Davos plea. The 48-hour technical talks open with territory, NATO posture and frozen-asset funding on the table—issues that kept 14 earlier bilateral formats from sticking. (theguardian.com)

Four years of war have already shrunk Ukraine’s GDP by roughly 35 % and driven reconstruction estimates past $900 bn, yet Europe now provides barely one-third of Kyiv’s air-defence interceptors. Washington’s sudden centrality recalls the 1995 Dayton model—U.S. leverage, neutral venue, winter urgency—but today’s West lacks post-Cold-War unity, and Moscow holds more land than Milosevic ever did.

If Abu Dhabi fails, energy grids will freeze again and markets will reprice risk in wheat, gas and Black Sea insurance overnight. Zelenskyy warns, “We cannot live in ‘Groundhog Day’,” a reminder that each diplomatic loop deepens humanitarian costs while normalising annexation. (apnews.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Credit Markets Flash Warning Signs

US corporate credit markets are exhibiting a level of confidence not seen in three decades, with the premium investors demand to hold corporate bonds over safer government debt—known as the yield spread—shrinking to its lowest point since the 1990s (Bloomberg). While this indicates strong belief in corporate health, it also suggests that risks of a downturn may be underpriced. This exuberance is setting the stage for a “trillion-dollar test” as companies must soon refinance their maturing debt in a potentially less forgiving environment. Our perspective is that such tight spreads often precede corrections, as markets eventually revert to a more realistic assessment of risk, penalizing over-leveraged firms.

Geopolitical Realignments

Shifting political alliances are reshaping global trade. Beijing is actively courting US allies, promoting itself as a more stable trade partner amidst trans-Atlantic tensions (WSJ). This follows a turbulent week where President Trump’s tariff threats and subsequent reversal left European leaders scrambling (Politico). In a significant pivot within the EU, a new Berlin-Rome axis appears to be forming between Germany’s Merz and Italy’s Meloni, potentially sidelining the traditional Franco-German engine (Politico.eu). For markets, these political shifts introduce uncertainty, complicating long-term investment decisions that depend on stable, predictable trade policies rather than state-driven partnerships.

India’s Currency and Talent Crosscurrents

India is navigating conflicting economic currents. A slumping rupee has made foreign goods more expensive, prompting the world’s largest vegetable oil buyer to cancel soybean oil shipments from South America (Bloomberg). This move aims to protect domestic finances but disrupts international supply chains. Simultaneously, restrictive H-1B visa policies in the United States are triggering a “reverse brain drain,” driving high-skilled tech talent back to India (Bloomberg). While this influx of human capital could boost innovation, it underscores how protectionist policies, whether in trade or immigration, create unintended consequences for global markets and labor flows.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Several People Missing After Landslide Buries Campground in New Zealand
— Wall Street Journal

China Sees a Chance to Lure Jaded U.S. Allies
— Wall Street Journal

Clorox to Buy Purell-Maker Gojo for $2.25 Billion
— Wall Street Journal

The US Is Losing Top Tech Talent to India in the Wake of Trump’s H-1B Chaos
— Bloomberg

Credit Partying Like The 90s, But a Trillion Dollar Test Looms
— Bloomberg

India Scraps More South American Soy Oil Cargoes as Rupee Slumps
— Bloomberg

U.S. Exits WHO, Markets Shudder

The United States has officially terminated its 78-year membership in the World Health Organization (WHO), a move finalized today that injects profound uncertainty into the global health market. This severs a critical funding and data artery for the Geneva-based body, creating a vacuum that other state actors will rush to fill. For European pharmaceutical and biotech firms, this escalates risk; a weakened WHO means slower global pandemic responses and fragmented regulatory standards, potentially disrupting supply chains and delaying drug approvals. The departure isn’t merely political theatre; it’s a material change to the architecture of global health security, forcing a repricing of risk for a sector reliant on international cooperation. (DW, Reuters, AP).

TikTok’s Forced Restructuring Sets a Precedent

In a landmark case of tech-nationalism, TikTok has finalized the separation of its American operations into a new U.S.-majority-owned joint venture. The parent company, China’s ByteDance, now holds just a 19.9% stake, with U.S. investors like Oracle and Silver Lake taking significant control. This isn’t a free-market transaction; it’s a forced divestment driven by Washington’s national security apparatus. The precedent for European tech is chilling. It signals that access to the American market may now require ceding corporate control and walling off data, a direct challenge to the principle of open, integrated global technology markets. This playbook could easily be turned on European firms in sectors deemed strategic. (Ansa).

Davos Pivots from Economics to Geopolitics

The dialogue at the World Economic Forum has cemented its shift from market optimism to geopolitical anxiety. German Social Democratic Party leader Lars Klingbeil’s discussion on the need to “crisis-proof” Germany’s economic model is telling. The core assumption of a stable, rules-based global order—the very bedrock of the export-driven German economy—has evaporated. This intellectual pivot from efficiency to resilience is now driving policy. For investors, it means anticipating a new wave of industrial strategy, state intervention, and protectionism across Europe as governments prioritize supply-chain security over pure market logic, creating a less predictable and more fragmented commercial landscape. (Politico).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Ciclone Harry, la mareggiata svela nuovi reperti in Tunisia, esperti a Néapolis
— Ansa

Ein Spaziergang mit Lars Klingbeil in Davos
— Politico Europe

US officially exits World Health Organization
— Deutsche Welle

Hamburg-Derby im Zeichen des Abstiegskampfes
— ZDF

Der Machtkampf um die Arktis in Karten
— ZDF

Dänen sind zurück: Sieg gegen Frankreich
— ZDF