Western allies spent Davos trying to quiet a geopolitical absurdity: a U.S. president who still wants to own Greenland. EU leaders now speak openly of “de-risking” from Washington after Donald Trump threatened 10 % tariffs on eight European economies, then back-pedaled only when markets wobbled.(ft.com)

The episode is less comic than systemic. America’s willingness to weaponize size—first the dollar, now territorial leverage—pushes even Atlanticist capitals toward strategic hedging. Euro area exports to the U.S. equal 20 % of all extra-EU trade; yet Denmark’s rapid coalition-building against the tariff threat shows that volume is no longer the sole calculus—predictability is. NATO’s article 5 looks brittle when article 1 of the WTO is in play.(transcripts.cnn.com)

History rhymes: Eisenhower used Suez to humble Britain; today, Trump uses Greenland to humble Brussels. But by forcing partners to imagine life after Pax Americana, he may accelerate the very multipolar realignment he fears. As the strategist Parag Khanna reminds us, “The 21st-century map is drawn by supply chains, not sovereignty.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Atlantic Alliance Under Strain

President Trump’s recent remarks questioning the frontline contributions of NATO allies in Afghanistan have drawn sharp rebukes from European leaders, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer calling them “insulting and frankly appalling” (WSJ). The comments have inflamed already simmering tensions, accelerating Europe’s push for greater “digital sovereignty.” Fearing a potential U.S. block on access to critical technology, the European Parliament is now formally directing the European Commission to map out and reduce the bloc’s dependencies on foreign tech, noting that over 80% of its digital infrastructure relies on non-EU providers (WSJ).

Prediction Markets vs. The House

A quiet disruption is challenging the sports-betting landscape as innovators like Polymarket and Kalshi gain ground on incumbents FanDuel and DraftKings (WSJ). These platforms operate as prediction markets, which are structured more like financial exchanges where users trade on the outcomes of events rather than betting against a bookmaker. By classifying their products as event contracts, these markets fall under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing them to bypass the complex web of state-by-state gaming regulations—a move critics call a loophole. This represents a victory for market-based forecasting and freer competition.

Social Media Speech and Competition

Amid growing calls to regulate social media by banning users under 16, a more effective solution is being overlooked: competition (FT). The current debate often pits demands for aggressive content moderation against concerns over free speech. However, from a market perspective, the fundamental problem is the lack of genuine alternatives to dominant platforms. Rather than imposing top-down government bans, which risk infringing on individual liberties and rarely address root causes, fostering a competitive environment would empower users with choice and naturally incentivize platforms to improve their services and safety features.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Trump Comments on Afghan-War Veterans Spark Backlash From Allies
— Wall Street Journal

This NFL Season’s Fiercest Rivalry Is Sports Betting vs. Prediction Markets
— Wall Street Journal

Europe Prepares for a Nightmare Scenario: The U.S. Blocking Access to Tech
— Wall Street Journal

US Warship Visit to Cambodia Base Shows Continued Warming Ties
— Bloomberg

Nvidia Director Persis Drell Leaves Board for Other Opportunity
— Bloomberg

Pletka on Trump, Iran, & World Leaders Reaction to Trump
— Bloomberg

Berlin-Rome Axis

A new center of gravity is forming in the EU. The German-Italian government consultations in Rome, involving ten ministers from each side, signal a pragmatic alignment between two of the bloc’s industrial heavyweights (ZDF). The focus on joint defense, migration control, and a shared initiative to slash EU bureaucracy points to a powerful coalition skeptical of Brussels’ overreach. For Chancellor Merz and Prime Minister Meloni, this is about intergovernmental problem-solving, not supranational ideology. The ripple effect could be a significant challenge to the traditional Franco-German engine, forcing a rethink on EU integration and regulatory policy toward open markets and reduced state intervention.

UK’s Eastern Pivot

The UK’s Labour government is wasting no time in demonstrating its post-Brexit pragmatism. Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle’s upcoming trip to China marks a clear intent to re-engage economically with Beijing (Politico). It will be the first visit by a British Prime Minister to China since 2018 (Chatham House). While geopolitical tensions remain, the mission’s focus on easing trade friction—particularly for the UK’s vital services exports—shows a recognition that national interest requires open markets. This move will test the West’s fractured consensus on China, positioning the UK as a more independent, trade-first actor and potentially creating leverage in future negotiations with both the EU and US.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Ziemlich beste Freundin
— ZDF

1929-1931 Krise
— ZDF

Schalke macht mit Dzeko Ernst in Sachen Aufstieg
— ZDF

Muccino, in Le cose non dette sentimenti estremi come all’opera
— Ansa

Scontro totale Lega e Forza Italia sulla Consob, Tajani insiste
— Ansa

Singapore, netto raffreddamento dell’inflazione
— Ansa