2026-01-25 • Russian missiles and drones hit Ukraine’s grid, darkening 1.2 million homes. Moscow’s

Evening Analysis – The Gist

Russian missiles and 375 drones shattered Ukraine’s grid overnight, plunging 1.2 million homes into sub-zero darkness and wounding dozens in Kyiv and Kharkiv.(aljazeera.com) The scale—two rare Tsirkon ballistic missiles, 25 drones on a single city, 600 buildings without heat—confirms Moscow’s winter playbook: weaponise energy to erode civilian morale and erode European support as Abu Dhabi peace talks limp forward.

Yet the barrage also exposes an opposite trend: attrition is accelerating Russia’s own costs. By Kyiv’s count, the Kremlin has fired 1,700 drones and 1,380 glide bombs in one week—unsustainable burn-rates for even a sanction-battered economy.(amp.dw.com) Each strike tightens Ukraine’s appeal for Western air-defence rounds and chips away at the notion that “frozen” fronts mean frozen political will.

History warns that infrastructure wars rarely deliver strategic victory—London’s lights came back on after the Blitz, Hanoi after Linebacker II. Putin may dim Ukraine’s cities, but he risks illuminating his exhaustion. As security scholar Kori Schake reminds us, “Brutality can conquer territory; it cannot conquer legitimacy.” (The Atlantic, 2024)

The Gist AI Editor

Evening Analysis • Sunday, January 25, 2026

the Gist View

Russian missiles and 375 drones shattered Ukraine’s grid overnight, plunging 1.2 million homes into sub-zero darkness and wounding dozens in Kyiv and Kharkiv.(aljazeera.com) The scale—two rare Tsirkon ballistic missiles, 25 drones on a single city, 600 buildings without heat—confirms Moscow’s winter playbook: weaponise energy to erode civilian morale and erode European support as Abu Dhabi peace talks limp forward.

Yet the barrage also exposes an opposite trend: attrition is accelerating Russia’s own costs. By Kyiv’s count, the Kremlin has fired 1,700 drones and 1,380 glide bombs in one week—unsustainable burn-rates for even a sanction-battered economy.(amp.dw.com) Each strike tightens Ukraine’s appeal for Western air-defence rounds and chips away at the notion that “frozen” fronts mean frozen political will.

History warns that infrastructure wars rarely deliver strategic victory—London’s lights came back on after the Blitz, Hanoi after Linebacker II. Putin may dim Ukraine’s cities, but he risks illuminating his exhaustion. As security scholar Kori Schake reminds us, “Brutality can conquer territory; it cannot conquer legitimacy.” (The Atlantic, 2024)

The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

Housing Costs & State Intervention

A dispute between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and California Governor Gavin Newsom highlights a core debate on housing affordability. While Newsom targets institutional investors for driving up home prices, Bessent argues the focus is misplaced. The primary driver, from a free-market perspective, is restrictive government policy—zoning laws, permitting delays, and environmental regulations—that stifles housing supply (WSJ). This mirrors the situation in the UK, where the hospitality sector is warning of a tax “nightmare” after a government U-turn on value-added tax (VAT) for pubs, illustrating how inconsistent policy creates market uncertainty (Bloomberg).

Geopolitical & Military Tensions

Global stability is being tested by significant military and trade shifts. In a major security development, China’s top general, Zhang Youxia, stands accused of providing nuclear secrets to the United States, raising questions about the country’s military cohesion and readiness (WSJ). Meanwhile, US-Canada trade relations are strained as Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade deal with China as an “about-face,” potentially escalating tariff threats from President Trump (Bloomberg). These events underscore the fragility of international alliances and the high stakes of global power competition.

Energy & Domestic Policy

Nations are making pivotal decisions on energy and internal security. Serbia is now considering offers for its first nuclear power plants to avert future blackouts, signaling a strategic move away from coal to meet surging electricity demand (Bloomberg). In the US, a fatal shooting in Minnesota has intensified legal challenges aimed at restricting the operations of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This follows President Trump’s continued deployment of federal agents to Democratic-run cities, deepening the divide over federal versus local authority (Politico.Eu).

Cultural Currents

A growing concern in the literary world is the decline in reading among young people. An analysis in the Financial Times suggests that the way reading is taught and the material offered may be alienating potential young readers. The argument is that to foster a new generation of readers, the approach needs a fundamental rethink, moving away from established canons to subjects that resonate more directly with contemporary interests and concerns. This shift is seen as crucial to reviving a culture of book reading in the digital age.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Brussels Forges Indian Trade Breakthrough

The EU is on the cusp of finalizing what Commission President Ursula von der Leyen dubs the “mother of all agreements” with India, promising the deepest market access ever granted to a foreign partner (Ansa). Set to be concluded this Tuesday, the free-trade pact is a significant victory for open-market principles. European agricultural exporters, in particular, stand to gain as steep tariffs on products like wine and olive oil are expected to collapse. Securing a competitive advantage in key sectors of India’s traditionally protected economy of 1.4 billion people demonstrates a tangible benefit of persistent trade diplomacy over protectionist instincts. The deal signals a strategic pivot for Brussels, strengthening economic ties with a key Indo-Pacific power.

UK Labour Consolidates Power, Blocks Burnham

The UK Labour Party’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) has moved to centralise its authority, blocking prominent Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s bid to return to parliament. The decisive 8–1 vote against allowing him to stand in an upcoming by-election sends a clear message about the leadership’s low tolerance for independent power bases (Politico). While framed as a procedural decision, the move effectively sidelines a popular and sometimes critical voice from Westminster politics. This action suggests that, should Labour form the next government, it may favour strict party discipline over internal debate, potentially narrowing the scope of future policy discussions.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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