U.S. labour-market red lights flashed overnight: employers announced 108 000 layoffs in January—more than any January since 2009—while job openings slid to 6.5 million, a five-year low, sending Wall Street sharply lower. (ft.com)

The disconnect is striking. GDP is still expanding above 2 %, yet firms from Amazon to UPS are shedding staff as AI-driven productivity lets revenue grow without people. The last time cuts ran this deep, the Fed unleashed zero-rates; today it is still holding at 5.25 %, wagering that slack will tame inflation. That bet now looks riskier: Challenger data show layoffs up 205 % month-on-month, and every percentage-point rise in unemployment historically erases roughly $150 bn in consumer spending. (ft.com)

We may be watching the first recession engineered not by demand collapse but by a capital-technology pivot that sidelines labour. Unless policy shifts from rate tweaks to reskilling and safety nets, the social cost will dwarf the savings on corporate P&Ls. As economist Mariana Mazzucato warns, “growth without shared purpose is just extraction.” (ft.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

US Consumer Pressure

US consumers are showing signs of strain, with Newell Brands, maker of Sharpie pens, reporting lower fourth-quarter sales after price hikes met resistance (WSJ). This pushback against inflation is mirrored in healthcare, where over 20 million Americans are grappling with spiking Affordable Care Act premiums, leading some to seek medical care in Mexico (Bloomberg). These trends suggest a tightening of household budgets that could dampen economic activity. Meanwhile, the US dollar is on track to break a two-week losing streak, a move that could make imported goods cheaper for Americans but exports more expensive for buyers abroad (WSJ).

Tech & Regulatory Pushback

The tension between innovation and regulation is palpable. Nvidia secured US approval to sell a key artificial intelligence chip to China, a significant development in the ongoing tech trade frictions (Bloomberg). From our perspective, allowing market access fosters competition and innovation, even amid geopolitical rivalry. In the financial sector, investor Ron Baron is challenging norms in the $14 trillion exchange-traded fund (ETF) market by using a novel structure to invest heavily in private company SpaceX, skirting certain SEC rules on illiquid assets (Bloomberg). This highlights a classic tension between rigid regulation and financial innovation.

EU’s Deregulation Agenda

In Europe, a coalition is forming to champion deregulation and free-market principles. The leaders of Belgium, Italy, and Germany are spearheading a pre-summit meeting to push for a more robust single market and expanded trade deals (Politico.eu). This initiative aims to bolster the EU’s global competitiveness by reducing red tape. Our view is that such reforms are essential for unlocking economic dynamism. The move comes as UK Labour leader Keir Starmer contends with a significant internal party scandal, a distraction from pressing economic policy debates (Politico.eu).

Geopolitical Undercurrents

Global risk factors remain elevated, with high-stakes nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluding without a breakthrough. Tehran has refused to halt its nuclear enrichment program but has signaled a willingness to continue diplomatic engagement (WSJ). This persistent uncertainty in the Middle East contributes to market volatility. Any escalation could have significant repercussions for global energy prices and supply chains, impacting businesses and consumers worldwide.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Nvidia Is Heading Back to China. Here’s Why It’s Fraught
— Bloomberg

Ron Baron’s Mega SpaceX ETF Stake Skirts SEC Illiquid Assets Cap
— Bloomberg

Americans Turn to TikTok Tips, Mexico to Escape ACA Premium Pain
— Bloomberg

Dollar on Path to Snap Weekly Losing Streak
— Wall Street Journal

Newell Brands to Lower Some Prices Following Resistance to Hikes
— Wall Street Journal

Iran Refuses to End Nuclear Enrichment in Talks With U.S.
— Wall Street Journal

Germany Debates State Gas Reserve

The engine of Europe is rethinking its energy strategy as gas storage hits historic lows amid a cold snap, prompting a serious debate over creating a national strategic reserve (ZDF). This pivot towards state interventionism challenges Germany’s long-standing market-based approach. Proponents see it as a necessary backstop against supply shocks and price volatility. From our vantage point, however, it risks distorting market signals and could prove a costly, inefficient solution. The core issue remains diversifying supply and fostering a competitive energy market, not centralizing control. The outcome will be a bellwether for energy policy across the EU.

Bitcoin’s Whiplash

Digital assets are on a wild ride, with Bitcoin showcasing its signature volatility. The cryptocurrency jumped 7% to $67,252, partially recovering from a steep plunge below the $60,000 mark (Ansa). Yet, the bigger picture remains challenging for recent investors. The asset is still down 28% since the start of the year and has shed 46% from its October peak of $125,000. This recovery appears driven by traders buying the dip, a classic speculative move rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment. It’s a stark reminder of the inherent risk and the absence of traditional value anchors in the crypto space—a feature, not a bug, for market purists.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Conte, 50 milioni per sicurezza e miliardi in armi, una presa in giro
— Ansa

Bitcoin prova il recupero, +7% a 67.252 dollari
— Ansa

Horden: portraits of family, death, and dreams in an English mining town
— El Pais

Weidle-Winkelmann kritisiert Olympia-Piste
— ZDF

Olympisches Transport-Chaos rund um Cortina
— ZDF

Braucht Deutschland eine nationale Gasreserve?
— ZDF