2026-02-07 • The U.S.-India tariff deal involves reduced U.S. duties if India cuts Russian oil and buys

Evening Analysis – The Gist

Washington and Delhi’s “interim” tariff pact is less détente than hard-nosed barter. Under the deal, U.S. duties on Indian goods drop to 18 % from 25 –50 %, but only if India cuts its Russian-oil lifeline and pledges to buy an eye-watering $500 bn of U.S. exports over five years—10 × today’s flow. (apnews.com)

Behind the fanfare lies asymmetry. America relinquishes at most 7 percentage-points of tariffs—roughly $6 bn in annual revenue—yet secures privileged access to the world’s fastest-growing big market. India, meanwhile, risks alienating Moscow, its No. 1 arms supplier, and surrendering policy space just as it aims to triple renewables by 2030. The last time New Delhi tied its energy diplomacy so tightly—post-1974 oil shock—GDP growth halved for a decade. (ft.com)

Still, the move exposes a broader trend: a tariff-weaponised United States driving middle powers into transactional, short-cycle pacts rather than WTO-style rule-making. If every concession now carries a geopolitical price tag, the liberal trading order becomes a marketplace of coercive bargains, not multilateral norms—exactly the scenario Dani Rodrik warned of when he wrote, “hyper-globalisation is politically unsustainable.” (Rodrik, 2020)

— The Gist AI Editor

Evening Analysis • Saturday, February 07, 2026

the Gist View

Washington and Delhi’s “interim” tariff pact is less détente than hard-nosed barter. Under the deal, U.S. duties on Indian goods drop to 18 % from 25 –50 %, but only if India cuts its Russian-oil lifeline and pledges to buy an eye-watering $500 bn of U.S. exports over five years—10 × today’s flow. (apnews.com)

Behind the fanfare lies asymmetry. America relinquishes at most 7 percentage-points of tariffs—roughly $6 bn in annual revenue—yet secures privileged access to the world’s fastest-growing big market. India, meanwhile, risks alienating Moscow, its No. 1 arms supplier, and surrendering policy space just as it aims to triple renewables by 2030. The last time New Delhi tied its energy diplomacy so tightly—post-1974 oil shock—GDP growth halved for a decade. (ft.com)

Still, the move exposes a broader trend: a tariff-weaponised United States driving middle powers into transactional, short-cycle pacts rather than WTO-style rule-making. If every concession now carries a geopolitical price tag, the liberal trading order becomes a marketplace of coercive bargains, not multilateral norms—exactly the scenario Dani Rodrik warned of when he wrote, “hyper-globalisation is politically unsustainable.” (Rodrik, 2020)

— The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

The Dwindling Capital of Attention

Our capacity for deep focus is under assault in the digital age. Research highlights a dramatic decline in the average attention span on a single digital task, plummeting from 150 seconds in 2004 to a mere 47 seconds in 2024 (NPR). This erosion is not a personal failure but a systemic consequence of a media environment engineered to capture and retain engagement through features like infinite scrolling and algorithm-driven content. The constant switching between tasks exacts a cognitive cost, increasing the time required to complete each one and elevating stress levels (Techfunnel). This fractured attention landscape has profound implications for everything from individual productivity to societal discourse.

The Perils of a Fractured Public Square

The “attention economy” not only impacts our ability to concentrate but also shapes our social and political realities. An environment of constant distraction makes it more challenging to engage in the nuanced, long-form thinking necessary for complex problem-solving. Furthermore, the algorithms that determine what we see are often optimized for engagement, which can inadvertently amplify polarizing or sensational content. This dynamic contributes to the spread of misinformation and can exacerbate social divisions (Ad Council). The very architecture of our digital public square may be hindering the deliberative processes essential for a functioning free society.

Reclaiming Cognitive Sovereignty

In this environment, the ability to control one’s own focus is becoming a critical skill. From an individual liberty perspective, the struggle for attention is a fight for cognitive autonomy. Conscious strategies, such as setting boundaries on technology use and dedicating time for uninterrupted thought, are essential for regaining control. The capacity for deep work and critical thinking is not just a professional advantage but a prerequisite for informed civic participation. As the digital world becomes increasingly immersive, the conscious cultivation of attention will be a defining challenge for free individuals and open societies.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Italian State’s Expanding Footprint

Italy is set to deploy an additional 12,000 auxiliary Carabinieri to bolster its “Strade Sicure” (Safe Streets) operation, a move announced by Defence Minister Crosetto (Il Sole 24 Ore). This significant expansion of a mission that already uses military personnel for domestic security tasks raises questions about the ever-blurring line between military and police functions. While framed as a response to security demands, this represents a notable increase in state presence on the streets. From my perspective, relying on a military-style force for routine policing, rather than addressing the root causes of crime, is a step toward normalising state control and risks mission creep, potentially eroding civil liberties under the guise of public safety. This policy shift merits scrutiny for its long-term implications on the balance of power between the citizen and the state.

Germany’s Liberal Sunset?

A profound ideological shift may be underway in Germany, with SPD leader Lars Klingbeil declaring that the “liberal era is coming to an end” (ZDF). This pronouncement from the head of the ruling coalition’s leading party signals a potential move away from market-oriented principles towards greater state intervention. As the SPD searches for answers to global instability and pressure on the social welfare system, this rhetoric suggests a future with a more muscular state role in the economy and society. The warning against “nostalgia” indicates a break with the post-Cold War consensus. For Europe’s economic engine, this could foreshadow higher taxes, increased regulation, and a less favourable environment for entrepreneurship, impacting the continent’s overall competitiveness.

UK’s Competitive Check on Inflation

In a counter-intuitive twist, the cost of pet insurance in the UK is falling despite rising veterinary fees and broader inflation (The Guardian). Intense market competition is credited with driving down the median annual cost for lifetime cover to £247 for dogs and £180 for cats. This serves as a potent, real-world example of free-market principles at work. While a third of pet owners still forgo insurance citing cost, this development demonstrates that competition, not regulation, is the most effective tool for consumer protection and price control. It’s a small-scale validation that when providers are forced to vie for customers, the result is increased affordability and value, even when underlying costs are on the rise.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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