The House’s 219-211 vote to nullify Donald Trump’s steel-and-aluminum tariffs on Canada is more than a symbolic slap at the White House: six Republicans broke ranks, signalling a fragile, cross-party coalition against executive trade overreach. The tariffs—justified by a dubious “national emergency” and defended as fentanyl deterrence—have raised production costs by an estimated 9 percent for U.S. manufacturers that rely on Canadian metals, according to the Congressional Research Service.(apnews.com)

Historically, Congress claws back tariff authority only when domestic pain eclipses partisan loyalty—think the 1934 Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act that softened Smoot-Hawley’s self-inflicted wounds. Today’s revolt rhymes: Mid-western auto-parts exporters face thinner margins, and Wall Street worries about a C$30 billion Canadian retaliation spiral first triggered in 2025.(ft.com)

Yet passage is uncertain: the Senate’s filibuster math and an all-but-certain presidential veto loom. Still, the vote exposes a deeper truth—when inflation bites and supply chains strain, protectionist theatrics lose electoral punch. As economist Dani Rodrik reminds us, “trade policy is the thin edge of the wedge between nationalism and interdependence.”

— The Gist AI Editor

AI’s Creative Destruction

Artificial intelligence is sending a shockwave through the software sector, forcing a reckoning for private equity firms heavily invested in legacy software-as-a-service (SaaS) models (FT). AI’s ability to automate coding and simplify software development threatens to erode the durable, high-margin business models that private capital has prized. Some analysts now suggest the “Rule of 40″—a key SaaS performance metric where revenue growth rate plus profit margin should exceed 40%—may need to be revised upwards to 50% or even 60% to account for AI-driven efficiency gains (Bain & Co). This shift signals a fundamental repricing of innovation, favoring companies that build core AI infrastructure over those merely applying older software solutions.

The Weight-Loss Revolution’s Data

The new class of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is demonstrating a profound economic and health impact. While the medications carry high upfront costs—often exceeding $1,300 per month in the U.S. without insurance—proponents argue this is dwarfed by the estimated $173 billion spent annually in the U.S. treating obesity-related diseases (WSJ, Equilibrium). The core debate is shifting from efficacy to economic viability, as data suggests long-term healthcare savings could be substantial. Our take: market competition is the surest path to affordability, and as more GLP-1 alternatives emerge, access will broaden, potentially boosting productivity and reducing the strain on state-funded health systems.

Regulation Curbs European Industry

Chemical giant Ineos is seeking redress from Belgium after the Flemish government’s suspension of a permit for its flagship plant in Antwerp, a move Jim Ratcliffe claims inflated costs by a quarter (FT). The suspension was tied to stringent nitrogen emissions regulations, which aim to reduce ammonia from agriculture by 40% and nitrogen oxides by 45% by 2030. This case epitomizes the growing tension between Europe’s ambitious environmental goals and its industrial competitiveness. From a free-market perspective, while environmental standards are necessary, an overly rigid regulatory framework risks driving capital and innovation to regions with a more pragmatic approach to balancing economic growth and ecological protection.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Ineos seeks redress from Belgium over suspension of plant permit
— Financial Times

How is the weight-loss revolution showing up in the data?
— Financial Times

Vinay Prasad’s Vaccine Kill Shot
— Wall Street Journal

Private equity’s doomsdAI moment
— Financial Times

ANZ Bank Shares Enjoy Best Day Since 2020 as Cost Cuts Show
— Wall Street Journal

Origin Energy Sees Opportunity for Data Centers by Its Power Plants
— Wall Street Journal

Forensic Reversal

A new forensic investigation is challenging the official narrative surrounding Kurt Cobain’s 1994 death. A study in the International Journal of Forensic Science posits that the Nirvana frontman was murdered, directly contradicting the long-standing suicide verdict by Seattle police (Ansa). The research team, led by independent investigator Bryan R. Burnett, points to autopsy results inconsistent with an instantaneous death from the shotgun wound, suggesting he was first incapacitated with a forced heroin overdose. This re-examination of a 32-year-old case reopens a major cultural wound and could force a formal review, illustrating how modern forensic science can upend historical conclusions.

Europe’s Military Pivot

I’m seeing a definitive strategic shift as Europe steps in to cover the near-total halt in new US military aid to Ukraine. Northern and Western European nations now account for a staggering 95% of the assistance, a dramatic assumption of the security burden (El Pais). To put this in perspective, European allies spent €3.7 billion on arms from the US defense industry last year alone. This pivot, born of necessity, is accelerating the continent’s military-industrial integration and signals a growing, if reluctant, acceptance of its role as the primary underwriter of its own security architecture. The long-term implications for transatlantic defense dynamics are profound.

Moscow’s Digital Wall

Russia is escalating its digital iron curtain, with WhatsApp accusing Moscow of attempting to “completely block” its service (Ansa). The move is a transparent effort to migrate users to state-controlled messaging apps, tightening the Kremlin’s grip on information. Moscow’s justification is that the block will be lifted if parent company Meta abides by Russian law and engages in “dialogue.” This represents a significant move against one of the world’s largest communication platforms, further isolating Russia’s digital ecosystem and setting a concerning precedent for the splintering of the global internet.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Fünf Stunden Epstein-Kreuzverhör: Wie es für Pam Bondi lief
— ZDF

Merz calls on Germans to work more — and draws a withering backlash
— Politico Europe

Kurt Cobain, indagine forense indipendente rilancia l’ipotesi di omicidio
— Ansa

Protest auf dem Eis: Heraskewytsch trotzt IOC
— ZDF

Wie durch “Buy Now, Pay Later” das Schuldenrisiko steigt
— ZDF

Europa cubre la casi total ausencia de nueva ayuda militar de Estados Unidos a Ucrania
— El Pais