Washington’s latest disclosure is stark: Pentagon planners expect a “sustained, week-slong” air-sea campaign if President Trump orders strikes on Iran.(japantimes.co.jp) A second carrier group is already en-route; crude has lurched back toward $70 as traders re-price Hormuz risk.(economictimes.indiatimes.com) The timetable for diplomacy is collapsing just as Munich’s security elite debate a world they label “under destruction,” warning that great-power guardrails have snapped.(theguardian.com)

History suggests shock-and-awe often outlives its architects: Operation Desert Fox lasted four days yet hardened Iran’s resolve for decades; oil spiked 24 % in the first Gulf crisis before reverting once supply proved resilient. A protracted 2026 campaign would test an already-fragile global economy—1 % of world seaborne crude transits Iran’s export terminals daily—and could shove headline inflation back above 4 % in importing states just as central banks pause tightening. Prediction markets on Kalshi priced a U.S.–Iran clash above 40 % overnight, a reminder that geopolitical risk is now tradable in real time.

As German Chancellor Merz warned yesterday, “the rules-based order no longer exists.”(theguardian.com) If power abhors a vacuum, markets abhor uncertainty; the coming hours will show which force moves faster.

— The Gist AI Editor

Homeland Security Shutdown Begins

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) initiated a partial shutdown early Saturday after Congress failed to pass a funding bill. The impasse stems from disagreements over the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement tactics. While Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) remain funded from a previous $140 billion allocation, the shutdown will impact other critical agencies (The Spokesman-Review). Approximately 90% of DHS employees, including Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and Coast Guard personnel, are deemed essential and will work without pay. The shutdown threatens to delay disaster response and weaken cybersecurity, creating ripple effects across national security operations.

Wealth Rankings Reshuffle

A surge in Walmart’s stock has propelled three members of the Walton family into the world’s top 10 wealthiest individuals, displacing Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to 11th. Jim, Rob, and Alice Walton now occupy the eighth, ninth, and tenth spots, respectively, with a combined net worth of $465.8 billion (Bloomberg). This shift reflects a broader market rotation out of tech stocks that has seen Huang’s wealth decrease by $8 billion since late January. Walmart’s shares have climbed 20% this year, driven by a successful digital overhaul that has expanded its market share and attracted more online shoppers.

The Human Element in Digital Trust

New research indicates that the option of human interaction significantly increases consumer trust in websites and digital services. A recent study found that 74% of consumers report greater loyalty to businesses that provide an option to speak with a person (Retail Dive). While automation and AI-driven customer service are on the rise, the data suggests that completely removing the human element can be detrimental. In fact, 43% of consumers would consider taking their business to a competitor if not given the option to engage with a human representative (Retail Dive). This underscores a fundamental principle: technology is a tool for efficiency, but human availability remains a cornerstone of customer confidence and retention.

Prediction Markets Challenge Sports Betting

Prediction markets, platforms where users trade contracts on the outcomes of future events, are rapidly gaining traction and challenging the traditional sports gambling industry. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket saw their combined trading volumes grow 130-fold between 2024 and 2025, reaching over $13 billion monthly by year-end (SportsPro). Unlike traditional betting against “the house,” these markets allow users to trade against one another, with prices reflecting the collective perceived probability of an event. This model, which supporters argue offers greater transparency, is attracting significant investment and a growing user base, signaling a potential paradigm shift in online wagering and real-time information markets.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Marco Rubio, Trump’s diplomat
— Financial Times

Prediction markets take a bigger bite of US sports gambling pie
— Financial Times

People Trust Websites More When They Know a Human Is on Standby
— Wall Street Journal

What kind of AI disruption victim are you?
— Financial Times

Waltons Crack Ranks of 10 Richest as Nvidia’s Huang Falls Out
— Bloomberg

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Italy’s Tomato Slums

The hidden machinery of Italy’s agricultural sector is again in focus, with a deep-dive into Borgo Mezzanone, Europe’s largest migrant settlement. The informal economy thriving here is undeniable: this single area’s workforce is responsible for producing 40% of the country’s tomatoes, a staple of the national economy. The settlement, built around an old military runway near Foggia, reveals a systemic reliance on migrant labor operating outside formal structures. For policymakers in Rome and Brussels, it’s a stark illustration of how migration policy vacuums are filled by market realities, creating vast, unregulated labor pools that are both essential and exploitative. This isn’t a fringe issue; it’s a core component of a key European supply chain. (El Pais).

Rome’s Nuclear Pivot

Italy is making a decisive move to re-embrace nuclear energy, with Environment Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin stating he expects a foundational bill to be approved by parliament entro il mese di luglio (by the month of July). The goal is to establish a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework for “new sustainable nuclear” power by the end of the year. This represents a significant strategic shift for a G7 economy that turned its back on nuclear power decades ago. As Europe grapples with energy security and ambitious decarbonization targets, Italy’s renewed interest could reshape regional energy dynamics and challenge the entrenched anti-nuclear sentiment in neighboring states like Germany and Austria. The move signals a pragmatic turn towards energy realism. (Ansa).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Geht dem US-Heimatschutzministerium jetzt das Geld aus?
— ZDF

Trapped in Europe’s largest migrant settlement: The forces sustaining Italy’s informal economy
— El Pais

Debakel für den Favoriten: Malinin stürzt und wird Achter
— ZDF

Trump hält Machtwechsel in Iran für “das Beste”
— ZDF

Pichetto, conto che ddl sul Nucleare sia approvato entro luglio
— Ansa

Honduras, missione Fmi in arrivo per sbloccare i fondi
— Ansa