Europe woke up to a rare joint warning from Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton and Gen. Carsten Breuer: without a “whole-of-society defence,” the continent risks inviting Russian opportunism. Their op-ed—published simultaneously in London and Berlin this morning—frames rearmament as a moral duty, yet arrives as voters balk at trade-offs between guns and welfare. (theguardian.com)

The timing is strategic. Overnight EU‐27 talks previewed a fresh €90 billion Ukraine-backstop and a €150 billion defence-industrial package, measures floated at Alden Biesen but still short of the 5 %-of-GDP goal leaders endorsed in Munich. Brussels touts “strategic autonomy,” yet a CNN tally shows Europe already underwriting $110 billion of Kyiv’s budget while Washington’s commitment wavers. (euronews.com)

History cautions that arms races rarely stop at “enough.” In 1913 Europe spent 3.5 % of GDP on defence; four years later, the continent lay in ruins. Today’s planners must pair steel with statecraft—credible diplomacy, energy resilience, and democratic consent—lest moral urgency mutate into fiscal overreach and strategic drift. As Yuval Noah Harari reminds us, “Humans were always far better at inventing tools than using them wisely.”

The Gist AI Editor

US Antitrust Undergoes a Rethink

A potential recalibration of US antitrust policy is underway within Republican circles, signaling a pivot from populist-inspired interventionism toward a more traditional, business-friendly framework (FT). The recent departure of a key populist voice from Donald Trump’s advisory sphere suggests an ascendant pro-business wing is gaining influence. This group favors an approach where market competition, rather than aggressive state action, is the primary regulator. Our perspective is that less intervention generally fosters more innovation and dynamism; the key will be ensuring this shift doesn’t enable entrenched monopolies that stifle competition.

Oil Markets Brace for Supply Shift

Global oil markets are in a holding pattern as the OPEC+ coalition, which includes major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, signals a potential increase in crude output starting in April. After maintaining production cuts through the first quarter to stabilize prices, the group is now preparing for a seasonal uptick in summer demand (Reuters). Any decision to open the taps would aim to recapture market share and could temper energy prices, offering some relief to consumers and businesses grappling with inflation. The move will be closely watched ahead of the group’s March 1 meeting.

Media Giants Re-engage on Megadeal

In a sign of relentless consolidation pressure, Warner Bros. Discovery is reportedly reconsidering a merger with Paramount Skydance (Bloomberg). Paramount has sweetened its hostile takeover bid, now valued at $30 per share, and has agreed to cover a hefty $2.8 billion termination fee Warner Bros. would owe Netflix from a competing deal. This high-stakes negotiation reflects the intense battle for scale and content libraries among streaming services as they vie for market dominance in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Populists are losing a Maga tug of war over US antitrust policy
— Financial Times

This time really could be different on jobs
— Financial Times

Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Talks With Paramount
— Bloomberg

Germany vows more defence tech funding after backlash over tanks
— Financial Times

Opinion | If You Want Peace, Don’t Lose the Nuclear Arms Race
— Wall Street Journal

Oil Consolidates, But Prospects of OPEC+ Supply Increase Could Weigh
— Wall Street Journal

Gaza Peace Initiative Splits EU

A new US-led “Board of Peace” for Gaza, meeting for the first time this Thursday in Washington, is revealing divergent European approaches. While the initiative, championed by Donald Trump, aims to raise over $5 billion for reconstruction, EU member states are not presenting a united front. Italy, alongside Romania and Cyprus, will attend only as an observer, with Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani briefing Parliament on Tuesday about the decision (ANSA). This cautious engagement underscores a broader European dilemma: how to address the post-conflict scenario in Gaza without formally committing to a framework established outside traditional diplomatic channels. The decision by key European nations to take a back seat, for now, signals a wait-and-see strategy, likely contingent on the initiative’s substance and the degree of buy-in from regional actors. The risk is a fragmented European influence on a critical geopolitical issue.

Baltic Alarm on Russian War Machine

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, issued a stark warning about Russia’s military capabilities. He asserted that the Russian army is “very strong” and its armament industry is functioning “well” (El Pais). This assessment from a frontline NATO state challenges any narrative of a Russian military teetering on collapse. Rinkēvičs also noted a tactical shift among some far-right European leaders, who are muting their previously open support for Russia—a rhetorical change he implies is more cosmetic than a substantive policy pivot. His comments serve as a critical reality check for European defence planners, highlighting the sustained threat posed by a Russian economy now firmly on a war footing. The message from Riga is clear: Europe must accelerate its own defence-industrial ramp-up to match the long-term challenge from Moscow.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Tajani in Parlamento sul Board of peace, le riflessioni di Meloni su Washington
— Ansa

Edgars Rinkevics, presidente de Letonia: “Hay un cambio de retórica de algunos líderes de ultraderecha. No apoyan tan abiertamente a Rusia”
— El Pais

Intermittent fasting no better than typical weight loss diets, study finds
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Regen, Schnee und Glätte an Rosenmontag erwartet
— ZDF

Matchbar – Bundesliga
— ZDF