Oil has thrust itself back onto the front page. Brent surged above $71.50—its highest since late July—while WTI punched past $66 as traders priced a 4-7 % two-day jump on mere whispers of a U.S. strike on Iran. Roughly one-fifth of global crude transits the Strait of Hormuz; talk of its closure clipped the Dow by 260 points and shaved 0.3 % off the S&P 500 before Asia even opened. (brecorder.com)

Markets are signalling more than nerves: they are repricing the post-pandemic belief that energy security had been tamed by shale and EVs. History says shocks compound—note how the 1979 Iranian upheaval doubled prices and seeded 1980s stagflation. Today’s inventories are comfortable, yet derivatives now embed a 34 % probability of a Hormuz shutdown within the year, up from 18 % in January, amplifying policy dilemmas for already-cautious central banks. (wsj.com)

If Washington’s coercive diplomacy fails, the energy transition’s timetable may again be set by gunboat rather than gigawatt. As political philosopher Pierre Rosanvallon reminds us, “Power is most fragile when it believes itself beyond constraint.” The coming hours will test whether that fragility belongs to Tehran—or to the West’s faith in cheap, reliable oil.

The Gist AI Editor

Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Emerging Markets

Rising U.S.-Iran tensions are sending ripples across global markets, hitting emerging economies hardest. Oil futures, a key indicator of market anxiety over potential supply disruptions, edged higher (WSJ). This spike contributed to a sell-off in emerging Asian stocks and currencies as investors moved away from assets they perceive as risky (Bloomberg). The broader impact of geopolitical instability on developing nations, which often rely on foreign capital and stable energy prices, is a significant headwind. Our perspective is that such volatility underscores the fragility of interconnected markets, where distant political disputes can directly impact economic realities far and wide, often hindering growth and investment in nations that need it most.

Corporate Strategies Shift Amid Market Pressures

In the corporate sphere, companies are adjusting their strategies in response to evolving market and political climates. A notable trend is the retreat from diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) mandates on corporate boards, leading to fewer appointments of women and minorities as political pressures shift (WSJ). Elsewhere, major players are making significant portfolio changes. Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis is exiting its listed Indian unit with a $159 million stake sale (Bloomberg). Meanwhile, agrochemical firm UPL is planning an IPO for its seeds unit to reduce debt after a downturn in crop-chemical prices, demonstrating a pivot towards financial consolidation (Bloomberg).

Resource Sector Navigates Uncertainty

The mining and resources sector is also navigating a complex environment. Gold producer Perseus Mining is turning its focus to internal growth after a failed bid for Predictive Discovery, signaling a strategic pause on aggressive expansion (WSJ). This conservative approach reflects a broader caution in a sector sensitive to global economic currents and investor sentiment. From a free-market standpoint, these strategic decisions—whether pursuing organic growth or tactical divestments—are rational responses to market signals, allowing companies to allocate capital more efficiently in the face of uncertainty.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

DEI Rules That Changed Corporate Boards Are Vanishing
— Wall Street Journal

Oil Futures Edge Higher Amid Ongoing U.S.-Iran Tensions
— Wall Street Journal

Perseus Mining Focused on Internal Growth; Will Keep Predictive Stake For Now
— Wall Street Journal

UPL Bets on Seed Unit IPO, Supply-Chain Tweaks to Trim Debt
— Bloomberg

Novartis to Exit Indian Unit With $159 Million Stake Sale
— Bloomberg

EM Stocks, Currencies Decline as Iran Tensions Build, Oil Spikes
— Bloomberg

Merkel’s Shadow Over Merz

At the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party congress, all eyes are on Chancellor Friedrich Merz as he seeks re-election for the party leadership. The key metric is his previous backing of nearly 90% in May 2024; any significant dip from that figure will be interpreted as a weakening of his authority amid a sluggish economy and pressure from the far-right (Politico, ZDF). Former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s rare appearance adds a layer of complexity, highlighting the party’s ongoing pivot from her centrist legacy. For markets, a diminished mandate for Merz could signal policy instability in Europe’s largest economy, affecting everything from fiscal discipline to regulatory reform.

Germany’s Bureaucracy Trims a Tentacle

In a welcome, if limited, move towards state efficiency, Germany’s Finance Ministry plans to automate “Kindergeld” (child benefit) payments. Starting in 2027, the system will begin with newborns whose parents already have children, eliminating the need for manual applications (ZDF). This direct-payment initiative acknowledges that cumbersome processes often prevent citizens from accessing entitled benefits. While a small step, it’s a pragmatic application of technology to reduce the administrative burden on families. My view is that such reforms are essential; the state’s role should be to facilitate, not frustrate, and this digital-first approach is a model that should be expanded aggressively to other citizen-facing services.

The UN’s Double-Edged AI Sword

The United Nations is establishing a new commission to ensure “human control” over artificial intelligence, with Secretary-General António Guterres calling for “less hype, less fear, more facts and evidence” (Ansa). This move reflects a growing global impulse to govern the powerful technology. The risk, as ever with such top-down initiatives, is that a body designed to set guardrails could easily become a mechanism for innovation-stifling regulation. While ensuring human oversight is a laudable goal, it must not morph into a global bureaucracy that slows development and consolidates control among a few established actors, undermining the permissionless innovation that drives genuine progress.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Kindergeld bald ohne Antrag? Wie das funktionieren soll
— ZDF

Stella McCartney ambasciatrice di sostenibilità per Re Carlo
— Ansa

Daylight saving time will return to the United States in March
— El Pais

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Merz stellt sich zur Wiederwahl als CDU-Chef, Merkel kommt
— ZDF

L’ex leader sudcoreano Yoon si scusa dopo la condanna, ‘ho causato dolore’
— Ansa