A single Supreme Court ruling has detonated Donald Trump’s tariff architecture—and his riposte, a 15 percent flat-rate levy on all imports, could lift the average U.S. duty to 13.7 percent while throwing $133 billion in already-paid tariffs into legal limbo. (ft.com)

History rhymes: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 hiked rates by an average 7 points and helped take world trade down 66 percent in three years. Today’s move is slimmer on paper, but supply chains are far more integrated; Yale’s Budget Lab warns that every percentage-point tariff now clips 0.1-0.2 percent from global GDP. Allies—not adversaries—bear the brunt: EU exports face a two-point jump while China’s weighted rate actually falls. (ft.com)

Trump’s legal end-run lasts only 150 days unless Congress acquiesces, yet the signal is unmistakable: Washington’s bipartisan consensus on open markets has collapsed, inviting reciprocal walls and faster bloc-ification of trade. In the long run, tariffs become a tax on trust. As economist Dani Rodrik reminds us, “Globalisation is a political choice, not an inevitability.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Trans-Atlantic Trade in Turmoil

A US Supreme Court decision invalidating President Trump’s global tariffs has triggered further market uncertainty. In a defiant response, Trump escalated the levies, prompting a senior figure in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party to label the situation “a real mess” (Bloomberg). The policy whiplash places the UK in a precarious position; once boasting of a preferential trade deal, it now risks becoming the “biggest loser” from the arbitrary tariff changes (Bloomberg). The episode is a stark reminder of how centralized trade directives create instability, undermining the predictability that free markets require to function.

Iran Learns Its Alliances Have Limits

Washington’s pressure campaign on Iran is revealing the transactional nature of authoritarian friendships. Despite strengthening ties, both China and Russia have signaled “little willingness to provide military aid” to Tehran should a conflict with the US arise (WSJ). This reluctance exposes the shallow roots of alliances not built on shared principles of liberty or mutual economic flourishing. For Iran, the realization that its strategic partners are primarily driven by self-interest leaves it in an increasingly isolated and vulnerable position on the world stage.

Digital Culture’s Double Edge

The pervasive influence of technology is reshaping society, from our minds to our markets. While the expansion of data centers in places like Virginia’s Loudoun County powers innovation (WSJ), there is growing concern that technology’s constant battle for our attention is fundamentally “undermining our ability to focus” (FT). This same digital connectivity empowers decentralized action, as seen in the boycott of school photography company Lifetouch, triggered by online activists scrutinizing its ownership’s connection to the Epstein files (WSJ). The incident highlights a new cultural dynamic where consumer choices are weaponized based on information flowing outside of traditional channels.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Macron Picks New Budget Minister in Shuffle of Top State Jobs
— Bloomberg

The ‘Godfather of Data Centers’ Making Offers Big Tech Can’t Refuse
— Wall Street Journal

How technology is reshaping our minds
— Financial Times

Under Trump Pressure, Iran Finds Its Friends Are of Little Help
— Wall Street Journal

Japan’s Ruling Party Tax Chief Calls US Tariff Situation ‘Messy’
— Bloomberg

How to make sense of the U.S. Iran strategy
— Marginalrevolution

Germany Signals Labor Market Shift for Asylum Seekers

Berlin is moving to slash the waiting time for asylum seekers to enter the workforce, a pragmatic pivot with significant economic implications. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt’s “Immediate Work Plan” proposes allowing asylum seekers to take jobs after just three months, a sharp reduction from the current, more restrictive rules (ZDF). This policy could alleviate labor shortages in key sectors and reduce the welfare burden on the state. While framed as an integration measure, it’s a clear nod to economic reality. The move challenges the prevailing narrative, suggesting that managed, legal labor immigration can be a net positive. The key will be in the execution—ensuring qualifications are recognized and bureaucratic hurdles are genuinely lowered.

Digital Viewership Explodes for Milano Cortina Games

The Milano Cortina Winter Olympics just provided a powerful lesson in modern media consumption. Warner Bros. Discovery reported that viewership on its digital platforms more than doubled compared to previous games, with total hours streamed quintupling (Ansa). This wasn’t just a marginal gain; it signals a fundamental shift in how audiences engage with major cultural and sporting events. For organizers of future events, from the upcoming Los Angeles 2028 Olympics to major European festivals, the message is clear: the digital arena is now the main event. This trend will accelerate investment in streaming infrastructure and force a rethink of traditional broadcast rights and advertising models, prioritizing interactive and on-demand content.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Dobrindt: Asylbewerber sollen schneller arbeiten dürfen
— ZDF

EU loses patience following Trump’s latest tariff threat
— Politico Europe

Milano Cortina: su piattaforme Warner Bros Discovery raddoppiati spettatori
— Ansa

Der Ukraine-Krieg im Zeitraffer
— ZDF

Mit Werbung gegen illegale Posts der Tiger-Mafia
— ZDF

Kyiv condemns ‘blackmail’ by Hungary, Slovakia as energy standoff escalates
— Politico Europe