The Trump administration’s overnight imposition of a 10 percent “across-the-board” tariff—valid for only 150 days under Section 122—upends $2 trn in annual imports and has already wiped $820 bn off global equities as investors rushed into $5,200/oz gold. (theguardian.com)

By revoking product-specific carve-outs such as Belgium’s $4.6 bn diamond trade, Washington has signaled that no bilateral deal is safe, prompting Brussels to suspend ratification of its 2025 accord and hint at activating a €90 bn retaliation arsenal. (ft.com) The resulting fracture echoes 1930’s Smoot-Hawley spiral: when tariffs jumped to a 20 percent effective rate, world trade contracted 25 percent within two years.

I read today’s move less as muscular mercantilism than as constitutional brinkmanship. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling last week curtailed Trump’s emergency powers; his pivot exploits a 1974 statute never tested at this scale, daring Congress—and allies—to blink. History suggests markets hate legal ambiguity more than high tariffs; unless clarity returns fast, capital will continue its silent flight toward Europe’s “Sleeping Beauty” markets. (ft.com)

“Protection ends where interdependence begins.” — Dani Rodrik, 2024

The Gist AI Editor

Germany Curbs Drone Deal

Germany’s parliament approved a multi-billion euro military drone contract but imposed new financial caps and oversight. Coalition lawmakers capped spending at €1 billion per supplier and mandated further parliamentary approval for future purchases from German manufacturers Helsing and Stark Defence. The move reflects concerns over pricing, redactions in the contract, and the minority stake held by investor Peter Thiel in Stark Defence, which has raised questions about potential influence. The initial order is for approximately €540 million. This decision signals a more cautious approach to military procurement, even as the nation seeks to modernize its armed forces in response to geopolitical shifts.

US Backs Southern Co. Energy Projects

The Trump administration has finalized a $26.5 billion loan package for two Southern Company subsidiaries to finance new gas and hydropower projects in Georgia and Alabama (Bloomberg), (Reuters). This represents the largest loan in the Department of Energy’s history and is projected to save customers an estimated $7 billion over the 30-year term. The funding will support the construction or upgrade of over 16 gigawatts of power generation, including 5 GW of new natural gas facilities, and aims to enhance grid reliability for millions in the southeastern US. This move underscores a policy favoring investment in a mix of traditional and renewable energy sources to bolster national energy infrastructure.

EU-Mexico Trade Pact Faces Headwinds

The long-negotiated free-trade agreement between the European Union and Mexico is facing potential disruption from the Trump administration. After nearly a decade of talks, both sides are close to a deal that would update their trade relationship, which dates back to 2000. However, President Trump’s “America First” trade policy and the recent imposition of tariffs have created uncertainty. The administration’s focus on re-evaluating existing trade pacts, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), signals a potential challenge for the EU-Mexico accord as Washington may view it as undermining its own trade leverage in the region.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The State of Trump’s Agenda
— Wall Street Journal

Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Tech, Media & Telecom Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

How State-Backed Hackers Skirted Iran’s Internet Shutdown
— Bloomberg

Turkey’s Vestel in Talks Over $500 Million of Bank Debt
— Bloomberg

US Closes $26.5 Billion in Financing for Southern Co. Utilities
— Bloomberg

Gaspreis-Geflüster

Der europäische Gaspreis am Referenzmarkt TTF schloss mit einem leichten Plus von 0,5 % bei 31 € pro Megawattstunde (MWh) (Ansa). Diese relative Stabilität täuscht über die anhaltende Nervosität hinweg. Während die Speicher gut gefüllt sind, offenbart jede kleine Schwankung unsere fortwährende Abhängigkeit von globalen Lieferketten und geopolitischen Stimmungen. Die Abkehr von langfristigen Verträgen zugunsten des Spotmarktes hat zwar die Flexibilität erhöht, aber auch die Volatilität. Für Unternehmen und Verbraucher bedeutet dies eine anhaltende Unsicherheit bei der Planung. Die entscheidende Frage bleibt: Ist dies die neue Normalität, oder können Infrastrukturinvestitionen und eine diversifizierte Energiestrategie – jenseits ideologischer Vorgaben – endlich für eine Entkopplung von externen Schocks sorgen?

Der Prozess gegen Varoufakis

Der ehemalige griechische Finanzminister Yanis Varoufakis wird wegen der Förderung des Drogenkonsums angeklagt (Politico). Der absurde Anlass: Seine Aussage in einem Podcast, er habe vor 36 Jahren auf einem Festival in Australien Drogen probiert. Dies ist mehr als eine politische Posse; es ist ein Lackmustest für die Redefreiheit und die richterliche Unabhängigkeit in Griechenland. Dass ein Jahrzehnte zurückliegendes und triviales Geständnis zu einem Strafverfahren führt, wirft ein beunruhigendes Licht auf die Politisierung der Justiz. Unabhängig von Varoufakis’ politischen Positionen sollte das selektive Vorgehen gegen prominente Kritiker in einer liberalen Demokratie Besorgnis erregen. Es unterstreicht die fragile Natur rechtsstaatlicher Institutionen, selbst innerhalb der EU.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Krisensitzung: Berlinale-Chefin Tuttle unter Druck
— ZDF

Wie Russen auf Krieg, Inflation und Zukunft blicken
— ZDF

Today’s birds are up to 72% smaller than those of 80 years ago in Indigenous territories
— El Pais

Der Ukraine-Krieg im Zeitraffer
— ZDF

La 23/a edizione del Montelago Celtic Festival, 36 concerti su cinque palchi
— Ansa

Il prezzo del gas chiude in leggero aumento a 31 euro
— Ansa