Brussels has just fired its heaviest economic shell yet: the EU’s 19th sanctions package bans all new Russian LNG contracts now and ends existing long-term deals by 1 January 2027. The bloc is fast-tracking autonomy—Russian gas has already fallen to 12 % of EU imports from 45 % pre-invasion—but LNG still earned the Kremlin roughly €7 bn in H1-2025. Cutting that revenue stream matters more than symbolic embassy expulsions. (reuters.com)

Beyond energy, the measures lock out Chinese refiners, Central-Asian banks and 117 “shadow-fleet” tankers, while curbing Russian diplomats’ movement inside Schengen. This widening lens recognises that sanctions leakage—not headline rates—determines effectiveness. Slovakia’s last-minute retreat shows fiscal fears remain, yet consensus held because markets now price in a steeper security dividend than any near-term gas spike. (theguardian.com)

History rhymes: Napoleon once warned that “the sinews of war are infinite money.” Europe finally targets those sinews, betting that a tighter embargo will shorten a conflict already bleeding its budgets and its strategic patience. Whether the ban starves Moscow or spurs new Asian demand will test the EU’s resolve—and the durability of its fiscal firewalls. “Energy dependence is political dependence,” reminds historian Timothy Snyder, and Brussels just chose independence. (eutoday.net)

— The Gist AI Editor

US Inflation Cools, Easing Rate-Hike Fears

US inflation rose less than anticipated in September, with the annual rate hitting 3%, just below forecasts of 3.1% (FT, CBS News). The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out volatile food and energy costs, also slowed to 3%, signaling that underlying price pressures may be stabilizing (Trading Economics). This dataset, a key barometer for the Federal Reserve, strengthens the case for a pause or even a cut in interest rates. Markets reacted positively to the news, as lower inflation reduces the need for the central bank to tighten monetary policy, which can slow economic growth.

Corporate Bellwethers Navigate Uncertainty

Major corporations are adapting to a shifting global landscape. Procter & Gamble reported a 3% rise in first-quarter net sales, beating estimates, but signaled a focus on innovation rather than price cuts to attract cautious consumers (WSJ, Investing.com). Meanwhile, Italian energy firm Eni boosted its 2025 share buyback program to €1.8 billion, signaling confidence in future cash flow despite volatile energy markets (WSJ, Seeking Alpha). These moves suggest that while consumer demand is resilient, companies are prioritizing long-term value creation over short-term sales tactics.

Geopolitical Tensions Simmer

Geopolitical maneuvering is increasingly impacting market access and supply chains. Hungary announced it is seeking ways to “circumvent” new US sanctions targeting Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, highlighting cracks in the Western coalition against Moscow (Politico.eu, Reuters). Concurrently, Germany’s foreign minister postponed a trip to China after Beijing failed to confirm key meetings, a sign of fraying relations between the two economic powers (Politico.eu, Reuters). These developments underscore the growing risks of politicized trade and energy policies.

Strategic Supply Chains in Focus

Governments and firms are actively re-shoring and diversifying critical supply lines. The Pentagon awarded a contract to Unusual Machines, a drone company linked to Trump Jr., reflecting a push to build a domestic industrial base for unmanned aircraft (FT). In another key area, the EU and China are set to hold high-level talks next week on raw materials, following Beijing’s recent export restrictions on rare earths and magnets vital for high-tech manufacturing (Politico.eu, E&E News).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

How Belgium’s premier scuppered Ukraine’s €140bn EU loan, for now
— Financial Times

US inflation rises less than expected to 3% in September
— Financial Times

Procter & Gamble to Focus on Innovation, Not Discounts, to Attract Wary Shoppers
— Wall Street Journal

Trump Jr-linked drone company wins Pentagon contract
— Financial Times

China and EU to talk raw materials next week
— Politico.Eu

Eni Increases Buyback, Cost-Savings Target
— Wall Street Journal

French Drag on EU Business Confidence

A discordant note is sounding in an otherwise improving EU economic landscape. The latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs)—a key gauge of business conditions—show a brighter outlook for both services and manufacturing across the bloc, with one significant exception: France (Politico). There, political instability appears to be exacting a real economic cost, with both sectors declining. While the rest of the EU shows signs of a tentative recovery, the struggles of its second-largest economy act as a considerable brake. This divergence matters; it signals that national political risk can readily decouple a major member state’s trajectory from the wider union, complicating unified monetary and fiscal policy. A sclerotic France threatens to undermine the EU’s overall competitiveness just as it seeks to regain its footing.

Brussels vs. Big Tech

The EU Commission has escalated its enforcement of the Digital Services Act (DSA), finding both Meta and TikTok in preliminary breach (EUObserver). The charges are not trivial: Brussels alleges the platforms fail to provide researchers with adequate data access, a core transparency requirement of the DSA. Meta’s Facebook and Instagram are also cited for making it too difficult for users to report illegal content and appeal moderation decisions. This move is less about content moderation and more about asserting regulatory sovereignty. By targeting the bedrock issue of data access, the Commission is aiming to dismantle the opaque “black box” algorithms that govern information flows. The likely ripple effect is a protracted battle that will define the EU’s ability to enforce its digital rulebook on global tech giants.

Russia’s Economic Woes Deepen

In a telling sign of distress, Russia’s central bank has cut its key interest rate and sharply downgraded its 2025 growth forecast (Politico). This comes just two days after the US sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil firms which are the lifeblood of an economy where hydrocarbons account for roughly a fifth of GDP (ZDF, Politico). The central bank’s move is a clear attempt to prop up a domestic economy battered by sustained high inflation and the cumulative weight of Western sanctions. Budapest’s declaration that it will seek ways to circumvent the new US energy sanctions adds a layer of geopolitical gamesmanship, but the underlying trend is one of mounting economic pressure on Moscow (ZDF).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Länder: Verbrenner-Aus aufweichen und mehr Geld vom Bund
— ZDF

EU businesses say things are getting better … except in France
— Politico Europe

TikTok and Meta breaching the DSA, EU Commission finds
— EUObserver

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Biathletin Simon gesteht Diebstahl an Teamkollegin
— ZDF

Sulla riforma del cambio dell’ora, l’Ue ferma da sette anni
— Ansa