2025-10-25 • Zelenskyy urges the U.S. to expand sanctions on Russian oil, stressing the need for

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

London’s “coalition of the willing” has handed Volodymyr Zelenskyy a megaphone—and he is aiming it straight at Washington. Within hours of the summit’s close, the Ukrainian leader urged the U-S to move beyond the new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and hit the entire Russian barrel, arguing that the two firms’ 5 million bpd cover barely half of Russia’s 10.6 million-bpd output. AP confirms Zelenskyy also pressed for long-range missiles, while EU partners weighed using €140 billion in frozen Russian assets to fill looming gaps in U-S funding. (theguardian.com)

Strip away the headlines and a harder fact emerges: sanctions now target oil that still clears global docks at a 30 % shadow-fleet discount, meaning Moscow’s war chest is dented but not disarmed. History cautions us; Iran’s crude exports rebounded to pre-sanction levels within five years, and Tehran’s GDP contraction reversed once back-door buyers multiplied. Unless the G-7 simultaneously polices tankers, insurers and price-cap compliance, today’s measures risk merely reshuffling trade routes rather than starving the Kremlin.

Yet the political signal matters. By aligning a fractious Europe and a hesitant America on energy strangulation, leaders are testing whether economic coercion can still trump battlefield ambiguity. As economist Branko Milanović reminds us, “Globalisation’s soft power ends where fossil-fuel hard power begins.” The next 90 days will show which force sets the new rules.

— The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Saturday, October 25, 2025

the Gist View

London’s “coalition of the willing” has handed Volodymyr Zelenskyy a megaphone—and he is aiming it straight at Washington. Within hours of the summit’s close, the Ukrainian leader urged the U-S to move beyond the new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and hit the entire Russian barrel, arguing that the two firms’ 5 million bpd cover barely half of Russia’s 10.6 million-bpd output. AP confirms Zelenskyy also pressed for long-range missiles, while EU partners weighed using €140 billion in frozen Russian assets to fill looming gaps in U-S funding. (theguardian.com)

Strip away the headlines and a harder fact emerges: sanctions now target oil that still clears global docks at a 30 % shadow-fleet discount, meaning Moscow’s war chest is dented but not disarmed. History cautions us; Iran’s crude exports rebounded to pre-sanction levels within five years, and Tehran’s GDP contraction reversed once back-door buyers multiplied. Unless the G-7 simultaneously polices tankers, insurers and price-cap compliance, today’s measures risk merely reshuffling trade routes rather than starving the Kremlin.

Yet the political signal matters. By aligning a fractious Europe and a hesitant America on energy strangulation, leaders are testing whether economic coercion can still trump battlefield ambiguity. As economist Branko Milanović reminds us, “Globalisation’s soft power ends where fossil-fuel hard power begins.” The next 90 days will show which force sets the new rules.

— The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

The Politics of Identity

In a significant nod to regionalism, Germany is reconsidering its opposition to making Catalan, Basque, and Galician official EU languages, following a political accord between Madrid and Berlin (Politico.Eu). This move elevates cultural self-determination over centralized uniformity. A similar sentiment is echoed in Puerto Rico, where a preference for the current commonwealth status is holding firm against the push for U.S. statehood, largely due to concerns over federal taxation and the preservation of a distinct cultural identity (WSJ). From our perspective, these developments underscore a healthy skepticism toward monolithic governance, favoring local autonomy and choice.

Resilience Under State Pressure

The profound societal costs of state action are evident in Gaza, where roughly 1,700 Palestinians recently released from Israeli prisons now face the immense challenge of reintegrating into a shattered society (WSJ). Meanwhile, in the U.S., Columbia University is taking the rare step of tapping its endowment to create a “research stabilisation fund.” This is a direct response to research funding cuts under the Trump administration, illustrating a strategic move by a private institution to insulate scientific inquiry from political volatility (FT). Both cases highlight civil society’s adaptation to, and endurance against, the consequences of government policy and conflict.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Sino-German Chill

A planned visit to Beijing by German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) was abruptly cancelled, a move the German Foreign Office attributed to China’s failure to confirm a substantive itinerary beyond a basic meeting with his counterpart, Wang Yi (ZDF). The last-minute postponement signals a hardening of diplomatic lines. While Berlin frames it as a scheduling issue, the snub points to Beijing’s increasing unwillingness to engage with Western officials perceived as critical. This isn’t just a diplomatic slight; it’s a test of Germany’s—and by extension, the EU’s—resolve to balance economic interests with a values-based foreign policy. For German industry, highly dependent on the Chinese market, such friction injects a fresh dose of political risk into strategic planning.

Brussels vs. Big Tech

The European Union has again targeted major tech platforms, accusing TikTok and Meta of breaching the Digital Services Act (DSA) over transparency rules (Il Sole 24 Ore). The core of the issue is the platforms’ alleged failure to provide clear information on their content moderation policies and recommender systems. This move tightens the regulatory screw under the DSA, a landmark law designed to force platforms to police illegal content more aggressively. While proponents cheer the enforcement as a check on corporate power, it also represents a significant compliance burden that could stifle innovation. Expect further legal battles as Brussels asserts its role as the world’s leading digital regulator, potentially fragmenting the global internet.

United Front on Russian Oil

Following President Trump’s sanctioning of Russia’s two largest oil companies, European leaders, led by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have vowed to “take Russian oil and gas off the global market” (Politico). This unified transatlantic front marks a significant escalation aimed at crippling Moscow’s revenue streams. While strategically sound from a geopolitical standpoint, the immediate economic fallout could be severe. The challenge will be to execute this chokehold without triggering a global energy price shock, a delicate balancing act that will test the resilience of European economies and the unity of the Western alliance as winter approaches.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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