2025-10-25 • Washington and Beijing spent hours in talks to prevent a tariff spiral. With looming deadlines, tensions remain over

Evening Analysis – The Gist

Washington and Beijing just spent eight hours in a Kuala Lumpur skyscraper trying to stop the tariff spiral from snapping the $710 billion trade artery that still binds them. Treasury chief Scott Bessent called the talks “very constructive,” but the clock ticks: Trump’s threatened 100 % duties hit Nov 1, while China’s new rare-earth chokehold already crimps magnets vital to EVs and missiles. (reuters.com)

Beijing’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng offered only smiles, signaling that Xi will use next week’s APEC summit as leverage rather than concession. Financial Times notes China won’t scrap export curbs without relief on the U.S. tech blacklist, leaving both sides locked in a “mutually assured disruption.” (ft.com)

The Guardian rightly asks whether Trump’s Asia tour can contain collateral damage to allies’ supply chains. History says 1930-style tariff volleys shrink world trade by double-digits; today’s AI-driven, mineral-hungry economy could feel the squeeze even faster. As political economist Dani Rodrik warns, “Globalisation fails when policy hardens into weaponry.” —Dani Rodrik, 2024 lecture at LSE. (theguardian.com)

The Gist AI Editor

Evening Analysis • Saturday, October 25, 2025

the Gist View

Washington and Beijing just spent eight hours in a Kuala Lumpur skyscraper trying to stop the tariff spiral from snapping the $710 billion trade artery that still binds them. Treasury chief Scott Bessent called the talks “very constructive,” but the clock ticks: Trump’s threatened 100 % duties hit Nov 1, while China’s new rare-earth chokehold already crimps magnets vital to EVs and missiles. (reuters.com)

Beijing’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng offered only smiles, signaling that Xi will use next week’s APEC summit as leverage rather than concession. Financial Times notes China won’t scrap export curbs without relief on the U.S. tech blacklist, leaving both sides locked in a “mutually assured disruption.” (ft.com)

The Guardian rightly asks whether Trump’s Asia tour can contain collateral damage to allies’ supply chains. History says 1930-style tariff volleys shrink world trade by double-digits; today’s AI-driven, mineral-hungry economy could feel the squeeze even faster. As political economist Dani Rodrik warns, “Globalisation fails when policy hardens into weaponry.” —Dani Rodrik, 2024 lecture at LSE. (theguardian.com)

The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

Irish Politics Tilts Left

In a significant political shift, hard-left independent candidate Catherine Connolly has won Ireland’s presidential election in a landslide (FT). Connolly, a former barrister, secured an estimated 64% of the vote, a commanding victory over the 29% garnered by Heather Humphreys, the candidate from the governing centre-right Fine Gael party (The Guardian). While the Irish presidency is a largely ceremonial role, Connolly’s win reflects a broader public discontent with the establishment over issues like the housing crisis and cost of living. The election was also notable for a historically high number of spoilt ballots, at 13%, signalling widespread voter frustration (The Guardian).

US-Colombia Relations Sour

The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Colombian President Gustavo Petro and his family, alleging a failure to curb surging cocaine production (Politico.eu). Washington claims that under Petro, coca cultivation and cocaine output have reached record highs. The sanctions freeze any U.S. assets of President Petro and his family and generally prohibit Americans from engaging in transactions with them. Petro has condemned the move as an act of an “oppressive regime,” asserting that his government has seized more cocaine than any in Colombia’s history (Reuters). This action represents a significant escalation of tensions between the two historic allies.

Diplomatic Overtures Amidst Conflict

A Russian envoy has indicated that a “diplomatic solution” to the war in Ukraine may be within reach, with talks scheduled between Russian and US representatives in Florida (Politico.eu). Kirill Dmitriev, a special representative of President Putin, stated that Russia, Ukraine, and the US are “quite close” to an agreement. This development comes as President Trump is also reportedly seeking a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his current tour of Asia (WSJ). While any potential dialogue is a positive sign, the substantive gaps between the parties remain considerable.

UK Labour’s New Second-in-Command

In the UK, Lucy Powell has been elected as the new deputy leader of the Labour Party, defeating the government-favored candidate (Politico.eu). Powell, a Member of Parliament for Manchester Central, won with 54% of the vote from party members and affiliates. Her victory is seen by some as a reflection of dissatisfaction within the party’s grassroots concerning the current leadership’s direction. Powell will serve as deputy from the backbenches, a position from which she could exert considerable influence on the party’s trajectory.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Nuclear’s Second Act

A pragmatic reassessment of nuclear energy is gaining momentum across the continent, driven by a confluence of geopolitical instability, the imperative for supply security, and the voracious energy demands of artificial intelligence (El Pais). The debate is shifting from decommissioning to life-extension and new construction, as policymakers confront the limitations of intermittent renewables. Kazakhstan, the world’s leading uranium producer, is a key flashpoint, with plans for its first nuclear plant near the village of Ülken facing local debate. This revival underscores a market- and security-driven pivot, challenging green orthodoxy and forcing a conversation on the real-world costs of the energy transition. The core issue is no longer ideological purity but ensuring a stable, abundant energy supply to power Europe’s economic and technological future.

Italian Judiciary Resists Reform

Italy’s National Magistrates’ Association (Anm) is mobilizing against a constitutional reform package it claims will upend the country’s separation of powers (Ansa). In a general assembly on October 25, the judicial body greenlit a national campaign to inform the public ahead of an expected referendum. The core fear is that the reforms will compromise judicial independence, creating a system that is “strong with the weak and weak with the strong,” thereby eroding the principle of equal justice. This represents a significant institutional clash between the judiciary and the executive, with potential ripple effects for the rule of law and the balance of powers within a key EU member state. The outcome will be a bellwether for institutional integrity.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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