the Gist View
Washington’s quick waiver for Hungary—74 % dependent on Russian gas and 86 % on its oil, per IMF data—carves a $600 million LNG side-deal even as the White House tries to starve Moscow of petrodollars. By granting a one-year escape clause just weeks after unveiling “crushing” energy sanctions, Trump signals that pipeline geography still trumps sanctions theology. (reuters.com)
The exemption punctures the narrative of a seamless Western front. Brussels spent three years cajoling Viktor Orbán with frozen cohesion funds; now the U.S. rewards him in a single meeting, creating a playbook for other fence-sitters from New Delhi to Doha to demand bespoke relief. Such carve-outs recall the selective Iran waivers of 2012 that ultimately hollowed out U.S. leverage. (ft.com)
I fear markets will price in sanctions “optionality,” eroding deterrent value and inflating Russian crude’s shadow discount. In an era when governments intervene daily—whether to cap AI chips or subsidize green steel—credibility, not capacity, will decide who shapes the next energy order. As Daniel Yergin reminds us, “Energy is the currency of geopolitics.”
— The Gist AI Editor
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