A one-day tremor rippled from Seoul to London as equities finally balked at sky-high AI valuations and fading hopes for a December Fed cut. Seoul’s Kospi dived 3.8 %, Europe’s Stoxx 600 lost 1 %, while the Nasdaq swung from −1.6 % to barely positive after panic buyers stepped in. Fed-fund futures now price just a 50 % chance of easing, down from 80 % a week ago, exposing how much of 2025’s rally rested on cheap-money assumptions. (ft.com)

This is not merely another bout of rate jitters: the five largest AI names still command 27 % of global market capitalisation, a concentration last seen in the 1920s utility bubble. When liquidity tightens, such winner-take-all structures turn from fortress to fault-line, amplifying volatility and threatening pension funds tied to passive indices. (ft.com)

If policymakers mis-time the pivot, they risk cementing an economy where gains accrue to algorithms while households face 4 % mortgage resets. As historian Adam Tooze warns, “a boom based on assumed generosity from central banks is a boom built on sand.” The hourglass just flipped. — The Gist AI Editor

Data, Not Dogma, Cuts Crime

A Danish study offers compelling evidence for a foundational libertarian insight: the certainty of consequence, not its severity, is the most powerful deterrent. Research by economist Jennifer Doleac, featured in her book The Science of Second Chances, found that adding anyone charged with a felony to a law enforcement DNA database “reduced future criminal convictions by over 40 percent” (Marginal Revolution). This dramatic reduction in recidivism stems from a simple, rational calculation by potential offenders—that the probability of being caught is substantially higher.

This evidence supports a shift away from costly, state-heavy solutions focused on incarceration toward smarter, technology-enabled policing. By increasing the likelihood of detection, the Danish model demonstrates a path to enhancing public safety that is both more effective and less intrusive. The data suggests that targeted investments in evidence-based practices can yield significant crime reduction, fostering a safer society without expanding the carceral state. Such findings also point to positive secondary effects, including increased employment and school enrollment for those in the database.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

UK borrowing costs jump as investors lose faith in Reeves’ Budget
— Financial Times

Number of Isa millionaires hits 5,000
— Financial Times

*The Science of Second Chances*
— Marginalrevolution

US stocks steady after global tech rout
— Financial Times

The Smartest Fliers Use This App to Survive America’s Travel Hell
— Wall Street Journal

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Italian Gambit

In a calculated political manoeuvre, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has declared her government will serve its full five-year term, irrespective of the outcome of a looming referendum on constitutional justice reforms (Ansa). This move decouples her administration’s fate from a contentious vote that aims to separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors. By urging citizens to vote on the merits of the law rather than as a verdict on her government, Meloni is attempting to neutralize the referendum as a tool for the opposition. It’s a high-stakes effort to secure political stability in a nation known for its revolving-door governments, asserting executive staying power over legislative whim (Ansa).

Portugal’s Populist Unmasked

A granular exposé on Portugal’s ascendant far-right Chega party reveals a familiar pattern for European populist movements: a chasm between public rhetoric and internal reality. A new book by journalist Miguel Carvalho, “Por dentro do Chega,” alleges a ‘cult of personality’ surrounding leader André Ventura, alongside claims of illegal recordings and opaque party financing (El Pais). While Chega has successfully channelled public discontent to become a major political force, these revelations highlight the inherent contradictions within anti-establishment parties. They campaign on transparency and anti-corruption while allegedly fostering the very top-down, unaccountable structures they publicly condemn, a critical insight into the operational playbook of Europe’s new right.

UK’s Global Health Retreat

The UK has confirmed a 15% cut to its contribution to the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria, a move that will reverberate far beyond its borders (The Guardian). This reduction, from £1 billion to £850 million for the 2027-29 period, sets a worrying precedent as the UK is ironically co-hosting the fund’s replenishment drive. Campaigners warn this decision could lead to hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths and encourage other donor nations to scale back their commitments. The cut signals a broader inward turn in British foreign policy, prioritising domestic budgets over established leadership in global public health and risking a domino effect that could weaken health systems across Africa and Asia.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Meloni,governo fino a fine legislatura, non cadrà col referendum
— Ansa

Chega retratado por Chega: culto al líder, grabaciones ilegales y financiación turbia
— El Pais

UK warned that 15% cut to health fund will force ‘impossible choices’ on Africa
— The Guardian

Vom ernsten Porträt zum offenen Lächeln
— ZDF

Bruderkrieg
— ZDF

Energiekonzerne sind zur schnellen Umsetzung bereit
— ZDF