French President Emmanuel Macron’s three-day swing through China reached a symbolic peak this morning when Xi Jinping escorted him to Chengdu—an honour China has previously reserved for only two foreign leaders since 2013. The choreography signals Beijing’s courtship of the EU’s second-largest economy at a moment when Brussels is reassessing its $348 billion annual goods deficit with China, €46 billion of which is borne by France itself. (reuters.com)

Xi’s gesture is less hospitality than hedging. By wooing Paris while EU anti-subsidy probes loom, Beijing hopes to fracture a still-nascent European consensus on de-risking—much as it exploited intra-European splits after Washington’s 2018 tariffs. Macron, for his part, reprises de Gaulle’s 1964 bet that an independent French line can bend super-power behaviour; yet without hard market-access metrics his “strategic autonomy” risks looking rhetorical. (amp.dw.com)

For investors the signal is clear: Europe’s China policy will be written piecemeal, in bilateral photo-ops rather than unified statutes—prolonging regulatory uncertainty for supply-chains already strained by war and the green transition. As political scientist Parag Khanna warns, “The future belongs to movable alliances, not immutable blocs.” (Khanna, 2023)

— The Gist AI Editor

Media Consolidation

Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery are in exclusive negotiations for a landmark deal that could reshape the entertainment landscape (WSJ). The streaming giant has reportedly offered $30 a share for Warner’s studio and streaming assets, a bid substantial enough to include a $5 billion breakup fee should regulators block the acquisition (TheWrap). This potential consolidation would bring iconic intellectual property like “Harry Potter” and the DC Universe under Netflix’s control, raising significant antitrust questions from a free-market perspective. The move signals a dramatic acceleration of media consolidation, potentially limiting consumer choice and concentrating immense pricing power.

Commodity Markets

Gold is poised to continue its strong rally into 2026, with some analysts forecasting a potential surge of 15% to 30% from current levels (WSJ, World Gold Council). This optimism is fueled by expectations of sustained demand from central banks and investors seeking a hedge against persistent economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Separately, in a move to secure critical mineral supply chains, trading house Mercuria is partnering with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s state-owned miner, Gecamines, to trade copper and cobalt (Bloomberg). This reflects a broader trend of resource nationalism, where governments seek greater control over strategic assets, a development that often introduces political risk into market dynamics.

Emerging Markets & Innovation

In South Africa, Verdure Fund is expanding its sale of securities backed by loans for rooftop solar installations, tapping into a market driven by the country’s persistent energy shortages (Bloomberg). This innovative financing model allows for greater private investment in decentralized energy solutions, a market-led response to state failure. Conversely, a sophisticated “digital arrest” scam is proliferating in India, where fraudsters impersonating law enforcement have extorted millions from citizens by exploiting lagging digital literacy (Bloomberg). The government reports that digital-arrest-related cybercrimes nearly tripled between 2022 and 2024, with losses in 2024 approaching ₹19.35 billion.

Global Economic Outlook

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, citing financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty as key headwinds (UN News). Developing economies, though growing faster than advanced ones, are particularly vulnerable to high borrowing costs and the enduring strength of the U.S. dollar. This underscores the precarious nature of the global recovery and the disproportionate impact of macroeconomic instability on nations with less resilient financial systems.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Opinion | We’re in an Era of Political Violence
— Wall Street Journal

Gold Likely to Sustain Strong Rally in 2026
— Wall Street Journal

Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix Enter Exclusive Deal Negotiations
— Wall Street Journal

‘India’s Digital Dream, Hacked’: How We Reported the Story
— Bloomberg

Mercuria and Congo’s Gecamines Start Mineral Trading Partnership
— Bloomberg

Verdure Targets More Sales of Securities Backed by Rooftop Solar
— Bloomberg

Brussels Targets Meta’s AI

The European Commission is poised to launch a formal antitrust investigation into Meta’s use of AI on its WhatsApp Business platform (Ansa). The probe, expected within days, scrutinises new terms of service from October that restrict third-party AI vendors from using the platform if AI is their primary offering. This move represents a significant escalation in Brussels’ campaign to rein in Big Tech’s market power, extending from data privacy to the burgeoning AI sector. For businesses reliant on the WhatsApp ecosystem, this creates regulatory uncertainty. For Meta, it’s another costly battlefront, potentially curbing its ability to monetise AI integrations across its vast user base and shaping the competitive landscape for enterprise AI in Europe.

Kyiv Cabinet Instability

A leadership shuffle in Kyiv is imminent as President Zelenskyy prepares to name a new chief of staff, following the resignation of the influential Andrij Jermak amid a corruption scandal (ZDF). While a single personnel change might seem minor, Jermak was a central figure in Ukraine’s wartime administration. This move signals potential instability at the highest level of government at a critical moment in the conflict. For European markets, the key risk is perception; any hint of disarray in Kyiv could unnerve investors and policymakers, potentially complicating the disbursement of financial and military aid packages and introducing fresh volatility for assets sensitive to geopolitical risk.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Nächste Schlappe für Hegseth: Druck auf US-Minister steigt
— ZDF

Il Financial Times, indagine antitrust Ue su Meta per l’uso dell’IA su WhatsApp
— Ansa

US-Japanese knowledge transfer programme in the aftermath of WWII
— CEPR

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Israel darf beim ESC 2026 starten
— ZDF

Arera, rinnovati i vertici: Dell’Acqua nuovo presidente
— Il Sole 24 Ore