Gold sprinted past $4,530 an ounce overnight, silver vaulted 4 % and platinum set a fresh record at $2,414 before dawn. The surge caps year-to-date gains of 71 % for bullion and 158 % for silver, eclipsing any calendar-year jump since the stagflation shock of 1979 (reuters.com)

Contrary to the cheerier narrative on Wall Street, investors are fleeing fiat: U.S. real yields have sunk below –1 % while global debt tops $330 trillion. Add a weaker dollar, Fed-cut wagers, and an EU retreat from its 2035 engine ban—signalling policy volatility—and hard assets look like the last anchor. Precious-metal ETFs took in $11 billion this month; physical buying in China and India is already running 22 % above 2024 levels, tightening supply just as South-African platinum output shrank 9 % on power curbs.

We have been here before. In the late-70s, gold’s spike presaged a painful reset of monetary credibility. Today’s rally is a referendum on the West’s twin addictions—cheap money and strategic flip-flops. Ignore the glint at your peril; as Mohamed El-Erian warns, “Markets don’t rebel often, but when they do, it is sudden and brutal.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Ukraine Peace Talks Accelerate

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on December 28 in Florida to close remaining gaps in a draft peace proposal (WSJ). Following weeks of negotiations, a 28-point plan has been refined to a 20-point framework, with Zelensky stating it is “90 percent done” (The Kyiv Independent), (Washington Post). While details are pending, discussions center on a comprehensive four-party agreement involving Ukraine, the U.S., Europe, and Russia. Our perspective: a rapid, negotiated settlement is preferable to a protracted conflict, provided it respects Ukrainian sovereignty and doesn’t inadvertently reward aggression—a fine line for any lasting peace.

New Alliances in the Horn of Africa

Israel has officially recognized the breakaway region of Somaliland, a significant geopolitical move that provides Tel Aviv a strategic partner on the critical Red Sea coast (Bloomberg). This decision establishes a new diplomatic reality in the Horn of Africa, potentially paving the way for U.S. recognition and Somaliland’s integration into the Abraham Accords framework. For markets, this could stabilize a volatile shipping lane, though it risks inflaming tensions with Somalia, which considers Somaliland its territory. From a free-market standpoint, recognizing stable, pro-Western entities can foster regional trade and security, unlocking investment in vital infrastructure like ports.

Security & Energy Tensions

The U.S. launched a military strike against ISIS targets in Nigeria, an operation conducted in cooperation with the Nigerian government to counter rising extremist violence (Bloomberg). President Trump stated the strike targeted militants responsible for killing Christians (The Guardian). Separately, Iran seized a foreign tanker in the Gulf, alleging it was smuggling 4 million litres of fuel (The Straits Times). This action, involving the detention of 16 foreign crew, underscores the persistent risk to commercial shipping in a region pivotal to global energy supplies. These incidents highlight the precarious link between state security and the free flow of commerce.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Meet the BofA Investment Banker Vying to Represent Haiti in the Winter Paralympics
— Wall Street Journal

Oil Futures Turn Lower After Steady Start
— Wall Street Journal

Scientific discoveries will be made by the young
— Marginalrevolution

Zelensky to Meet Trump on Closing Gaps in Draft Peace Deal
— Wall Street Journal

Israel Seals Recognition Deal with Breakaway Somalia Region
— Bloomberg

Iran says foreign tanker carrying smuggled fuel seized in Gulf
— The Straits Times

Germany’s Digital Paternalism

Berlin is openly contemplating a significant market intervention: banning social media for children. Digital Minister Karsten Wildberger endorsed the idea, citing Australia’s move to block platform access for those under 16 as a laudable model (ZDF). An expert commission is tasked with delivering recommendations by the summer, signalling a serious policy push. While framed as a child protection measure, this represents a notable expansion of state authority into the digital sphere, questioning the role of parental responsibility. For markets, it signals growing regulatory risk for tech platforms in Europe’s largest economy, potentially forcing costly age-verification systems and fundamentally altering user-base growth models. The core tension is between state-mandated protection and individual or familial liberty.

Italy’s Micro-Fund Budget

Rome’s latest budget maneuvers reveal a penchant for hyper-localised spending, bypassing conventional oversight. A “treasury” has been established to finance a slate of micro-projects, ranging from parish renovations and stray cat foundations to jazz orchestras (Ansa). Though public accounting norms forbid such direct local financing in the national budget, the government will channel the funds via ministerial decrees, to be approved within 60 days of the budget law’s enactment. This practice raises red flags over the efficient allocation of taxpayer capital. Instead of fostering broad economic growth, such granular political spending diverts resources to projects with questionable economic merit, driven by patronage rather than market demand. It is a classic case of fiscal leakage that undermines market discipline.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Digitalminister offen für Social-Media-Verbot für Kinder
— ZDF

Dalle parrocchie ai gatti randagi, i micro fondi della manovra
— Ansa

Defunding fungi: US’s living library of ‘vital ecosystem engineers’ is in danger of closing
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Portò la musica nelle case con pianole e organi, morto Paolo Bontempi
— Ansa

Gasparri,con riforma Corte dei Conti potrà funzionare meglio
— Ansa