The overnight severing of Iran’s internet—traffic down 90 percent—announces more than censorship; it signals the regime’s conviction that survival now depends on information starvation. Over 50–70 protesters and 15 security personnel are dead, with roughly 2,300 arrests since rallies ignited on 28 December over a currency collapse that halved the rial’s value. Tehran has thereby re-weaponised the 2019 blackout playbook, yet this outage is strikingly selective: government propaganda channels stay live, while Starlink signals are jammed. (reuters.com)

History shows such digital iron curtains rarely restore legitimacy. In 2011 Mubarak’s Egypt fell within 18 days despite a total shutdown; in 2022 Myanmar’s military saw GDP shrink 18 percent as blackouts scared off capital. If Iran’s economy, already contracting 5 percent annually, loses the diaspora-driven e-commerce lifeline, fiscal hemorrhage could outpace repression capacity, intensifying elite fissures.

I read the ayatollah’s gamble as a symptom of strategic exhaustion: a state willing to blind itself to avoid seeing its own decline. As sociologist Zygmunt Bauman warned, “Walls erected to keep dangers out also lock fragilities in.”*

— The Gist AI Editor

*Zygmunt Bauman, “Liquid Times,” 2007.

Elite Pushback on Wealth Taxes

In California, a revolt is brewing among the tech elite against a proposed one-time 5% “Billionaire Tax” on net worth over $1 billion. Through private forums like Signal chats, prominent figures are strategizing opposition and exploring relocation, signaling that mobile capital may flee jurisdictions perceived as hostile (WSJ). Proponents estimate the measure, targeting roughly 200 of the state’s wealthiest individuals, could raise $100 billion over five years, primarily for healthcare. Our view: This is a textbook example of how punitive wealth confiscation can trigger capital flight, ultimately undermining the very tax base it seeks to exploit.

Trump’s Populist Interventionism

US CEOs are navigating a precarious landscape under a Trump administration that blends traditional deregulation with unpredictable populist interventions (Bloomberg). While many executives privately worry about the erosion of free-market predictability, there is a notable cross-partisan consensus on one of Trump’s populist targets: the defense industry. His administration’s tough stance on contractors, framed as a crackdown on waste, has found surprising resonance with Democrats, reflecting a broader societal skepticism toward entrenched corporate-state relationships (Politico).

Authoritarianism Under Pressure

Cracks are showing in authoritarian regimes globally. In Iran, the military has vowed to protect state infrastructure as anti-government protests escalate, with reports of police deaths indicating a serious challenge to the regime’s authority (FT). Activist groups report dozens killed and thousands arrested as the government imposes a nationwide internet blackout to quell dissent. Concurrently, the ouster of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro is yielding immediate geopolitical dividends; the threat to neighboring Guyana has dissipated, de-risking investment in what is the world’s largest oil discovery in decades (Bloomberg).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Orban Says Hungary Ruling Party to Name PM Candidate in February
— Bloomberg

CEOs on Guard as Trump Rattles Companies With Series of Edicts
— Bloomberg

Maduro’s Fall Defuses Border-Conflict Risk for Oil-Rich Guyana
— Bloomberg

The Signal Chat Where Silicon Valley Is Plotting Against California’s Billionaire Tax
— Wall Street Journal

The one issue where Democrats think Trump is right
— Politico.Eu

Maduro’s Crypto-Backed Oil Deals Put Tether at Center of Venezuela Money Drama
— Wall Street Journal

ECB’s Cautious Nod to Banking Union

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to approve Crédit Agricole’s bid to raise its stake in Italy’s Banco BPM beyond 20%, but with significant strings attached. In a move that tests the real-world application of the EU’s banking union, Frankfurt’s regulators will reportedly cap the French lender’s board representation at seven directors. The goal is to prevent a “de facto acquisition” and manage overlapping business interests (Ansa). This reveals the core tension in European finance: a push for cross-border consolidation to create globally competitive banks, checked by a regulatory impulse to micromanage governance. For markets to truly integrate, capital must be allowed to flow where it sees value, with oversight focused on systemic risk, not corporate power dynamics.

Germany’s CO2 Windfall

Germany’s market-based climate solution, the emissions trading scheme (ETS), generated record revenues from CO2 certificate sales in 2025 (ZDF). This highlights the paradox of using markets to achieve policy goals. On one hand, the “polluter pays” principle is clearly functioning, creating a powerful financial disincentive for carbon-intensive industries. On the other, the record intake suggests that abatement is proving more costly or difficult than anticipated, forcing firms to purchase permits rather than invest in cleaner technology at the desired pace. While financing the green transition, these revenues are also a direct tax on industry, underscoring the delicate balance between environmental targets and economic competitiveness.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Republican hawks in US want faster timeline for elections in Venezuela
— Politico Europe

Ukraine is discussing trade deal with US, Zelenskyy says
— Politico Europe

Trump’s plan to strong-arm insurers into lower prices is met with skepticism
— Politico Europe

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Grönländer “wollen keine Amerikaner sein”
— ZDF

Macht der Klimaschutz eine Pause?
— ZDF