Iran’s streets have erupted again: at least 544 dead and 10,600 detained since the rial’s plunge ignited nationwide protests the regime now meets with blackouts and live fire. Brent nudged $63.39 a barrel as traders began to price the risk of a repeat of 1978’s refinery walk-outs that helped triple oil prices and topple the Shah. (apnews.com)

Yet markets remain split. Venezuela’s post-Maduro exports could add up to 50 mb of crude, cushioning any Iranian shortfall, while Goldman still pegs 2026 Brent at $56. But the options market is flashing stress: one-month at-the-money Brent volatility touched 34 %, the highest since Russia’s 2024 Odessa strike. (reuters.com)

Tehran wagers that repression plus oil leverage will deter external intervention; Washington’s calculus is that sustained labour unrest will erode that leverage faster than bombs ever could. If the clerical state cannot keep pipelines—and bandwidth—open, the geopolitical discount on Iranian crude may morph into a structural premium for political stability. As Shoshana Zuboff reminds us, “Power thrives in the dark; democracy demands light.”

The Gist AI Editor

Bullish Bets & Bond Yields

Wall Street is signaling growing confidence in the economy, reflected in rallying retail stocks and persistently high bond yields, which suggest investors are demanding higher returns in anticipation of growth (WSJ). This optimism persists despite mixed signals from commodity markets. While analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate oil prices may trend lower due to robust supply, they caution that geopolitical risks continue to present potential volatility (WSJ). Similarly, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, though its current elevated price introduces near-term risks for investors (WSJ).

Capital Flows & Sovereign Debt

Emerging markets are kicking off the year with significant financial activity. Indonesia is set to issue the first Asian sovereign dollar-denominated bond of 2026, a move that provides momentum to what is already a record start for global debt issuance (Bloomberg). In the energy sector, cross-border investment continues, with Thai power producer B.Grimm Power acquiring a 25% stake in a US hydropower operator for $230 million, underscoring the ongoing global push into renewable assets (Bloomberg). This demonstrates a sustained flow of capital towards sustainable energy infrastructure across developed markets.

The Chip Chokehold

The technological rivalry between China and the West is intensifying, with the critical semiconductor industry at its core. A dispute over technology transfers has fractured a Dutch chipmaker, illustrating the high-stakes battle for technological supremacy and the vulnerabilities within global supply chains (Bloomberg). This conflict highlights a broader trend of national security interests shaping and, in some cases, disrupting international commerce and innovation. Our perspective is that such interventions risk fragmenting markets and impeding the free flow of technology that underpins global growth.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Oil May Trend Lower, Though Geopolitical Risks Remain
— Wall Street Journal

Wall Street Is Making Bullish Bets on the Economy
— Wall Street Journal

Europe and China’s Feud Over Chips Is Reaching a Breaking Point
— Bloomberg

Gold’s Long-Term Outlook Still Positive; Risks Higher Near Term
— Wall Street Journal

Indonesia Plans to Sell First Asia Sovereign Dollar Bond of 2026
— Bloomberg

B.Grimm Buys 25% of US Hydropower Operator for $230 Million
— Bloomberg

Berlin’s Indo-Pacific Gambit

Germany is pivoting eastward, but with a notable strategic shift away from China. The German Chancellor’s visit to India signals a concerted effort to forge deeper economic and political ties with a democratic heavyweight in the region. Discussions are centred on critical areas: securing raw material supply chains, expanding defence cooperation, and tapping into India’s pool of skilled labour (Politico). My take is that this represents a fundamental de-risking strategy for Europe’s largest economy, diversifying away from an increasingly assertive Beijing. It’s a pragmatic, market-oriented move to build resilience and cultivate new growth avenues, trading reliance on an autocracy for a partnership with a vibrant, if complex, democracy. This is not just about trade; it’s about underwriting long-term economic security.

Britain’s High-Stakes Missile Bet

The UK is directly intervening to alter the economic calculus of the Ukraine war. Through a new initiative, “Project Nightfall,” London is fast-tracking the development of a deep-strike ballistic missile for Kyiv. The specifications are potent: a 500km+ range and a 200kg warhead, with prototypes slated for delivery within 12 months (The Guardian). This is not merely a military donation; it’s an investment in crippling Russia’s war machine at its source. By enabling Ukraine to strike high-value Russian energy and logistics hubs, the aim is to erode the oil export revenues funding the Kremlin’s aggression. Three industry teams will initially receive £9 million each to compete, injecting innovation directly into the conflict’s economic dimension.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Tajani, governo preoccupato per quello che succede in Iran
— Ansa

Tensione nel centrodestra sulle misure per la sicurezza
— Ansa

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Spektakel zwischen Frankfurt und Dortmund
— ZDF

Ukraine war briefing: Nightfall – Britain races to develop ballistic missile for Kyiv
— The Guardian

So sahen die ersten heute-Nachrichten aus
— ZDF