A dawn tweet-turned-policy now threatens to weaponise the U.S. tariff code against half the planet. President Trump’s 25 % duty on any nation trading with Iran extends secondary sanctions logic into headline-rate protectionism, instantly putting China (which bought 54 % of Iran’s crude last year) and Turkey, India and the UAE on a $90 bn collision course with Washington.(reuters.com)

Markets are already gaming the shock: gold pierced $4,560/oz and defence stocks hit fresh highs as investors hedge for cascading retaliation; in 2018 a far smaller steel-and-aluminium tariff lifted EU export costs by just 0.2 %, yet still shaved 0.1 pp off euro-area GDP. This time the levy is triple, globalised and open-ended—another elastic boundary between trade policy and coercive diplomacy.(reuters.com)

I read the move less as an Iran play than a gambit to re-insource U.S. supply chains under electoral duress, reinforcing a decade-long drift from rules-based commerce to transactional blocs. Economist Dani Rodrik warned that “hyper-globalisation contains the seeds of its own backlash”; today we watch those seeds germinate in real time.(reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

US Escalates Economic Pressure

President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on any nation conducting business with Iran, a significant escalation of economic statecraft aimed at isolating Tehran (WSJ). The immediate market reaction saw oil prices climb during Asian trading, underscoring the direct impact of geopolitical maneuvering on global energy costs. This policy effectively forces a choice upon trading partners, leveraging access to the American market as a tool of foreign policy.

Shifts in Strategic Minerals

In the critical minerals sector, Lynas Rare Earths CEO Amanda Lacaze is stepping down after a 12-year tenure (Bloomberg). Lacaze was instrumental in building Lynas into one of the world’s few significant non-Chinese suppliers of rare earths—materials essential for defense, electronics, and renewable energy technologies. Her departure introduces a variable into the West’s ongoing efforts to diversify strategically vital supply chains and reduce dependence on China.

Tokyo Markets Bet on Stability

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei stock index surged to a record intraday high, fueled by investor optimism (WSJ). Traders are anticipating a potential general election next month that could consolidate Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s political power. The market’s rally signals a strong bet that a solidified government would pursue bolder, pro-growth economic policies, reinforcing stability in a key Indo-Pacific economy.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Japan Stocks Hit Record High on Hopes for General Election
— Wall Street Journal

Oil Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
— Wall Street Journal

Medtronic and Neuralink Rival Precision Form Partnership
— Bloomberg

A Custody Battle Over Dogs Rocks an African Nation
— Wall Street Journal

Rare Earths CEO Retires After Building Major Non-China Miner
— Bloomberg

Would ‘Absolutely’ Work With Trump: Sen. Warren
— Bloomberg

Le Pen’s Political Endgame

In Paris, an appeals court today begins hearing the case that could determine Marine Le Pen’s political future. A prior conviction for misuse of EU funds bars her from holding office; should this appeal fail, her anticipated 2027 presidential run would be nullified. For markets, this introduces significant uncertainty into French politics. Polls currently place Le Pen as a frontrunner, and her removal would dramatically reshape the race. This legal battle is a critical test for the rule of law over political ambition and could either remove a major euroskeptic force or galvanize her base if she prevails. (ZDF)

Transatlantic Trade Tremors

President Trump has threatened a blanket 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, a move that would directly challenge European economic sovereignty. The threat follows reports of a brutal crackdown on protestors by the Iranian regime. This policy would put EU firms in an impossible position, forcing a choice between the US market and existing commercial ties. It also undermines years of European diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions with Tehran through economic engagement. Further afield, a new US-Taiwan trade consensus is taking shape, aimed at securing preferential tariff treatment—a pointed geopolitical manoeuvre certain to antagonise Beijing. (Politico, Ansa)

Kharkiv Under Fire

As diplomatic landscapes shift, Russia’s war of attrition continues. Overnight, Russian strikes on the northeastern city of Kharkiv killed at least two people and wounded three more. These attacks serve as a grim reminder of the Kremlin’s unchanged strategic objectives, even as analysis suggests Putin’s broader great-power project is facing the ‘end of an era’ amid weakening alliances and an inability to shield partners like Iran from US pressure. (ZDF, Politico)

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Strafverfahren wegen Ausnahmen von Maskenpflicht und Impfen?
— ZDF

Trump threatens 25 percent tariff on ‘any country’ that trades with Iran
— Politico Europe

How to sleep well in 2026 – podcast
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Berufungsprozess gegen Marine Le Pen startet in Paris
— ZDF

Putin’s great-power project faces the ‘end of an era’
— Politico Europe